Coronavirus outbreak

[icowden]

Well since you wish to nit-pick...

Who said I wanted to nit pick? You challenged my stat, I provided the source. None of this is relevant as the thrust of my post was about the reason that you can still end up in hospital with Covid when immunised. Nothing you have said contradicts that.

Wood? Trees?

 

[Deleted User]

Which country is that? Certainly not the UK, nothing has ground to a halt in my region nor where any of my family live. Shops are open and public transport is operational.

I assume the fella blaming Boris was referring to the UK?

 

[mjr]

Which country is that? Certainly not the UK, nothing has ground to a halt in my region nor where any of my family live. Shops are open and public transport is operational.

Shops here are open but there's not much in them...

 

[Ajax Bay]

From the gov.uk dashboard
An optimist would see a peak in the making.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Admissions will peak 28 Jul.

 

[Buck]

...or a temporary dip before a secondary peak? To review mid-August!

 

[mjr]

The Latitude music festival starts today, with 40'000 people (plus whoever pushes in Euros-style?), called a "test event" but no results expected soon enough to affect other events, taking place following the recent surge in cases.

Over in Belgium, Pukkelpop with 60'000 people next month has just been postponed for another year, as the area around Brussels is again moved up to "red zone".

Very different approaches?

Italy will be joining France in requiring an EU covid green pass for lots of social situations like cafes and bars, but part-vaccinated people will be allowed to pass from first dose plus 14 days, at least at first.

Bit of a screw up in Malta with them refusing to accept Irish vaccination certificates and quarantining some tourists. https://www.thejournal.ie/malta-irish-vaccine-5501132-Jul2021/

 

[mjr]

Mayor of Great Yarmouth suspended for visiting various places and a pharmacy instead of isolating after her husband tested positive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-57940617

 

[Ajax Bay]

...or a temporary dip before a secondary the main peak? To review mid-August!

FTFY
Could be. It is probably wise to treat the leading edge data as a bit more provisional than normal. A peak this soon would be completely at odds with the modelling, so I fear you are right @Buck. Think we'll know before mid-August.
Today's cases reported came in another 10% down and the case doubling rate is now flat or into decay (ie halving rate). Bit surprised this doesn't seem to be reported.
Perhaps we can see the fall off from the footie aftermaths of increased virus transmission opportunity.
One would expect an increase in the effective R number with relaxation of most restrictions on 19 Jul and might expect that to show very soon, countered by the seriously hot weather (most of UK) effect.
A pessimistic interpretation would be that lag in the testing system is going up as a result of both rising cases and the rising number of isolation orders and that this is contributing to apparent decay.
Many more are gaining immunity by the nasal as opposed to intramuscular route: A measly 43k received their first jab whereas 73K (two times the positive test number (rule of thumb, based on ONS antibody survey)) were infected yesterday.

 

[midlife]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217

Drop in cases has been reported but suggests caution. Our place not planning on admissions dropping any time soon.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Our place not planning on admissions dropping any time soon.

UK hospital admissions have been going up for the last month pretty steadily at about 150 per week (heterogeneously across the UK, of course). Admissions will peak 10 days after the cases peak. Latest admission data was 870 on 19 Jul. Makes sense to plan for worst case but consider the range of uncertainty: a optimistic estimate of the peak (if the cases have peaked on 18 Jul) is ~1100; next week.
So many confounding factors.

 

[Bazzer]

Elective surgery in Liverpool now cancelled due to the rise in C19 cases.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57946235

 

[Low Gear Guy]

The drop in reported cases may be related to English school holidays and the end of regular school based testing. Many people are also on planned annual leave and are not testing for work.

 

[lane]

It also seems quite likely that the full impact of re opening has yet to work through. As much as I would like cases to be on a sustained downward trajectory I would be amazed if they are. I fear we have (far) worse to come before things get better almost inevitably.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The drop in reported cases may be related to English school holidays and the end of regular school based testing.

English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun edit Jul VMT @c33) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later) edit and UK hospital occupancy peaked on the same day as UK deaths peaked (in January). Scottish daily death (with or of COVID-19) figures are so low that the noise to signal ratio is too great.
Interesting, eh?

 

[classic33]

English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later).
Interesting, eh?

A month ago, it's July now.