Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Doing what they want within the rules?
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Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Nothing's stopping you swanning about at will either, you just choose not to then judge people who think differently to you but are doing nothing that isn't allowed?
classic33
Leg End Member
You mean like reaching past you in a supermarket when the restrictions said 2 metres?
If they were that bad when such restrictions were in place, what'll they be like when such restrictions are lifted?
slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
" Just 'cos you can don't mean you should".
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Julia9054
Guru
- Location
- Knaresborough
Or keep regulations in place for situations where mingling is difficult to avoid - public transport, supermarkets etc
And remove then from situations it is easy to avoid - pubs, nightclubs, restaurants etc
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slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
Some time when the infection rate isn't going through the roof seems a bit sensible to me. Anyway, I'm no expert. Why not listen to what the epidemiologists are saying right now?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Au contraire, @shep, old chap; cases will at least drop away (if not "go away") before the summer is over (autumn equinox). All the modelling says so.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf (Published 6 Jul and considered by SAGE before they advised the Government on no earlier than 19 Jul (or not).)
If the population takes a fair time to adopt behaviours similar to pre-pandemic the modelling suggests that that will result in a lower peak to this wave, but interestingly, and counter-intuitively, that it will also result in a fourth wave in the winter (which would be excellent to avoid - suspect the epidemiologists would agree: rock and hard place).
The red/blue/green curves below (VE = vaccine effectiveness; default = best (as opposed to optimistic or cautious) estimate).
Note: The dashed black line shows the mean trajectory for the worst case assumption of immediate return to pre-
COVID mixing on 19 Jul.
Edit: Note 2: The areas under the purple line and the red line are similar (<20% different) so the number of cases/admissions/deaths (estimate/modelled) will be similar, but the red trajectory would result in far less stress on the NHS as its peaks are far lower (but the corollary is that the domestic threat from COVID-19 endures through to Easter).
https://assets.publishing.service.g...and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf (Published 6 Jul and considered by SAGE before they advised the Government on no earlier than 19 Jul (or not).)
If the population takes a fair time to adopt behaviours similar to pre-pandemic the modelling suggests that that will result in a lower peak to this wave, but interestingly, and counter-intuitively, that it will also result in a fourth wave in the winter (which would be excellent to avoid - suspect the epidemiologists would agree: rock and hard place).
The red/blue/green curves below (VE = vaccine effectiveness; default = best (as opposed to optimistic or cautious) estimate).
Note: The dashed black line shows the mean trajectory for the worst case assumption of immediate return to pre-
COVID mixing on 19 Jul.
Edit: Note 2: The areas under the purple line and the red line are similar (<20% different) so the number of cases/admissions/deaths (estimate/modelled) will be similar, but the red trajectory would result in far less stress on the NHS as its peaks are far lower (but the corollary is that the domestic threat from COVID-19 endures through to Easter).
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Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
In YOUR opinion.
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Even better then, just need to convince these lot!
slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
Obviously. It's your choice, not mine.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
We have passed a significant milestone that didn't get reported:
More people got immunity via a nasal rather than an intramuscular route on 10 July, and this continues.
[Assumption made (drawing on ONS antibody surveys for factor) that of those infected, only half (actually get a) test positive.]
The low rates of vaccination these last few weeks is remarkably unreported.
More people got immunity via a nasal rather than an intramuscular route on 10 July, and this continues.
[Assumption made (drawing on ONS antibody surveys for factor) that of those infected, only half (actually get a) test positive.]
The low rates of vaccination these last few weeks is remarkably unreported.
I think that is a fair question. My answer would be you lift restrictions when you can be reasonably certain that an increase in infections will not overload the healthcare system. Whilst it is true that in countries with highish vaccination rates the most vulnerable are now protected against the worst you also have to take into account that some younger people will die and that some will develop long-term complications that might not have occurred if you had waited until a higher rate of vaccination had been achieved.
A reasonable compromise to me would be to ease restrictions on personal freedom e.g. to do and watch sport, but retain the hygiene rules of masks and distancing where people get close together indoors. These latter are hardly a deprivation of liberty and can be very effective in dampening down the rate of infection whilst vaccination continues.
It would also seem wise to have a published backup plan reintroducing lockdown measures as appropriate to a local area to be implemented if the rate of infection coupled with strain on the NHS reaches a critical point.
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
It is but it's other people moaning about the choice that I'm making is the issue here.
I'm choosing to follow the current rules yet some people are firing comments off like 'blocking hospital beds' or 'swanning around as they please' that gets up my nose.
Good luck to you.
