Coronavirus outbreak

[Rusty Nails]

You know full well I was referring to getting I'll with Covid but you chose to drop Cancer in for the shock factor.

How about all those beds taken up by people who have had accidents at work, on the roads or due to extreme sports, are they being irresponsible and depriving your missus of a bed?

Is there an epidemic of any of those things causing an unusual run on hospital resources?

These are the practical and common things that hospital planners take into account when managing their ongoing resources. Covid is not like that, with no history to use as a base.

 

[Ajax Bay]

And if by magic, @Rusty Nails , here's something to help, maybe.
Reasons for hospital admissions: pre-COVID-19 (2003)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK63506/
NHS Digital (England) 2017:
"16.5M admissions were recorded in 2016-17. This is an increase of 27.5 per cent on 2006-07."
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...spital-admitted-patient-care-activity/2016-17
In the year 14 Jul 2020 - 13 Jul 2021 the number of admissions where the patient had tested positive for COVID-19 within the last 28 days was 301k.
So COVID admissions are (at most) 1.8% of the admissions (and probably less as a proportion of the 300k would have been admitted because they were poorly, anyway: with COVID not because of COVID). However I don't know the average hospital stay length for the stats in 2017, but I guess they'll be less than half the average COVID-19 stay. So maybe 5% of beds (average) have been needed for patients who had tested positive within the last 28 days. The latest figure is 3,367 beds occupied (about 3% of beds in NHS England's hospitals).
I think this helps with perspective of the extent to which people who have caught COVID-19 are bed-blocking other vital health improvement measures, for example: diagnosis and treatment of life threatening illness, and elective surgery.

 

[newfhouse]

Isn’t it a bit more complicated than just counting beds? What about operations being cancelled because of concerns over infection, whole wards being used for COVID patients only, and so on?

 

[Rusty Nails]

And if by magic, @Rusty Nails , here's something to help, maybe.
Reasons for hospital admissions: pre-COVID-19 (2003)
View attachment 599593
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK63506/
NHS Digital (England) 2017:
"16.5M admissions were recorded in 2016-17. This is an increase of 27.5 per cent on 2006-07."
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...spital-admitted-patient-care-activity/2016-17
In the year 14 Jul 2020 - 13 Jul 2021 the number of admissions where the patient had tested positive for COVID-19 within the last 28 days was 301k.
So COVID admissions are (at most) 1.8% of the admissions (and probably less as a proportion of the 300k would have been admitted because they were poorly, anyway: with COVID not because of COVID). However I don't know the average hospital stay length for the stats in 2017, but I guess they'll be less than half the average COVID-19 stay. So maybe 5% of beds (average) have been needed for patients who had tested positive within the last 28 days. The latest figure is 3,367 beds occupied (about 3% of beds in NHS England's hospitals).
I think this helps with perspective of the extent to which people who have caught COVID-19 are bed-blocking other vital health improvement measures, for example: diagnosis and treatment of life threatening illness, and elective surgery.

Interesting figures.

Are there specific figures for the number / % of Covid beds at peak periods?

Are there any figures for the numbers of patient-facing hospital staff losing work because of having hospital-caught covid or having to self-isolate because of contact at work.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Are there specific figures for the number / % of Covid beds at peak periods?

In NHS England peak bed occupancy for patients who had tested positive within the last 28 days for COVID-19 was 34,336 on 18 Jan: just under 30% of total beds (NB 10 times as many as on 16 Jul.)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Can't help with the staff absence figures: perhaps you could have a search.
@newfhouse of course it's more complicated, but it takes little acuity to recognise that it's still a useful metric to illustrate perspective of NHS England's resource allocation.
I do not seek in any way to diminish the short/medium term adverse effect on our NHS staff, the medium/long term on keeping and recruiting patient-facing staff to work in the NHS, and the extraordinary adverse effect on our NHS's other healthcare activities.
Worth pointing out though, that if there's any time of year that we can get through the inevitable (as modelled in Feb) wave which must follow restrictions being lifted, the summer months are 'best'. That will have been a consideration back on 14 Jun when a revision to Phase 4's date was announced delaying it to 19 Jul. But we did not know enough about the Delta variant (transmissibility, % protection offered against it by vaccines) then: the level of uncertainty is now much less: hence Tests 3 and 4 are met.

 

[classic33]

10th july
581 New Cases Of Covid-19 Confirmed Nationally in Ireland.

And a week later, 17th July , where the numbers have been on the up.
1377 New Cases Of Covid-19 confirmed.

 

[Deleted User]

I'm unlucky then?

Sounds pretty unlucky to me, but there you go.

Whether you class yourself as lucky, unlucky, average, normal, unusual or any other term is up to you.

I think anybody who ends up in A&E due to taking an Aspirin or whatever it was is pretty unlucky in my book.

 

[Ajax Bay]

In Northern Ireland it was 1402 on 17 Jul, from 445 on 10 Jul [https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases]
Ourworldindata doesn't suggest that dramatic increase in Ireland's daily cases - it was 99.5 per 100,000 on 9 Jul (in these data).

 

[midlife]

Sort of goes like this... Husband of teacher at the school where my wife works likes football, goes to watch it at the pub and goes to Wembley. Tests positive, gives it to his wife who breaks school bubbles, gets other people at school within 48 hours close contact.... And it goes on and on..

Our hospital being coy but my surgical colleagues are facing cancellation of elective work to clear the decks.

 

[classic33]

Sounds pretty unlucky to me, but there you go.

Whether you class yourself as lucky, unlucky, average, normal, unusual or any other term is up to you.

I think anybody who ends up in A&E due to taking an Aspirin or whatever it was is pretty unlucky in my book.

I don't, and never have classed, myself as unusual due to epilepsy. Others do, along with weird, which is annoying.

The treatment for the epilepsy takes priority, painkillers are out.

 

[Deleted User]

I think we all know it's not going away anytime soon so at what point in time or at what level of vaccination or any other measurable stage do people think restrictions should be lifted?
Just curious like?

 

[Deleted User]

I think the problem is that the minglers inevitably come across non-minglers and may pass on the infection.

Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?

Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.

 

[classic33]

Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?

Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.

Not always possible, and through no fault of the "non minglers". Nearly always those who feel they can do what they want make it impossible.

Corrected
"who who feel" to "those who feel"
in edit.

 

[slowmotion]

Well, this is where the non minglers need to keep their precautions in place isn't it?

Masks, distancing, avoiding indoor areas etc.

......as the minglers swan about at will, possibly infecting people?

 

[Deleted User]

......as the minglers swan about at will, possibly infecting people?

Or follow the Government rules, whichever way you see it?

So, as already asked, when would you ease restrictions then?