Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

You're obviously not suggesting that patients are just sitting waiting in corridors for a week and a half so, when you write ''admissions,'' do you mean contracting covid?

No: hospital admissions (patients admitted with positive COVID test and illness (not necessarily COVID symptoms)). These lag ten days behind peak bed occupancy (eg 9 Jan to 19 Jan).
Peak cases (by specimen date): 1 Jan - 61,238
Peak admissions: 9 Jan - 4233
Peak occupancy: 19 Jan - 38,434
All figures UK and 7-day averages.
[Latest available figures (to demonstrate current ratios): 16,108; 412; 3,409;]
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

[Buck]

To be clear, I used the phrase 'hospitalisation rate' to describe the fraction of hospital admissions divided by recorded cases 9 days earlier: in other words what fraction of cases (positive PCR) result in serious (hospitalisation) illness.
The 95% most vulnerable (JCVI Gps 1-9) have all (95+% uptake) received full vaccination giving them a a 95% protection against 'serious illness' (NB all figures with a tight confidence interval). One might actually hope/expect the hospitalisation rate to be less (15% rather than 20%).
It seems plausible @PK99 that there will be a slightly lower threshold for hospital admission (as Dave's second option) when COVID bed occupancy is a low percentage of total beds, but I'm not a medic (@Buck ?).

Me neither.

I had heard locally that those in hospital are seriously ill so certainly not a suggestion there that the threshold is lower.

Despite age being on their side, there are a significant number of younger people becoming seriously unwell, of which many have not been vaccinated.

 

[slowmotion]

Meanwhile, double-jabbed Javid has tested positive and, with mild symptoms, he's self-isolating. I wonder whether this will bring about a greater readiness on his part to treat covid as an illness rather than an economic inconvenience.

I'm not hopeful. The PM had it badly enough to be admitted to hospital but he seems hell-bent of using us all as guinea pigs in his forthcoming reckless experiment.

 

[mjr]

Presumably the bit you think that constitutes an attack is "the old aristo", and if the context in which this phrase was an attempt to deflect Churchill's words because of his characteristics. e.g. "who cares what he said, he was an old aristo" you'd be right.

Unfortunately, it wasn't, and, well...

But very artful in the way it was used to avoid contrasting "we shall never surrender" with bull shoot Boris's approach:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Trump_ton/status/1416348713291853824

 

[Ajax Bay]

The post-peak reduction of daily cases in Scotland is looking like exponential decay. Reading the daily admissions rate with the lens of an optimist, are they not leveling out: its peak 10 days delayed from the daily cases peak?
Possible reasons:

• Scotland is running out of susceptible people under current control measures (includes tens of thousands self-isolation) and schools finished 20 days ago - if so read that across to England shortly.
• Dipping between a resumption of outbreak
• Surges of infection in different centres, and the virus has failed to get its effect coordinated

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases (above,Scotland only, peaked 30 Jun)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (above - Scotland only, last data 13 Jul)

 

[Deleted User]

using us all as guinea pigs in his forthcoming reckless experiment.

Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today.

Simples.

 

[Rocky]

Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today.

Simples.

Oh and don’t get ill enough for hospital treatment and avoid having surgery…..because hospitals are grinding to a halt again.

 

[slowmotion]

Don't partake in said 'experiment' then, wear your mask, don't go near people who aren't wearing one, don't go anywhere you think is unsafe and you should be as safe on Monday as you are today.

Simples.

All good stuff but it seems to miss the point that a sizeable chunk of the population will interpret Monday as a green light to exercise no caution at all and the general environment will almost certainly become a more hazardous place. Anyway, that's the message that the scientists seem to be sending out.

 

[Deleted User]

Oh and don’t get ill enough for hospital treatment and avoid having surgery…..because hospitals are grinding to a halt again.

Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .

And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?

You know people like facts on here 😉

 

[Rocky]

Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .

And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?

You know people like facts on here 😉

If you are careful you won’t get ill…..so are you saying when my wife got breast cancer, she wasn’t being careful? (She has none of the risk factors)

Look up hospitals in Sunderland…..

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-57868803

 

[DCLane]

SWMBO's hours have been temporarily upped (again) in preparation for the next wave of patients into her now-reopening Covid ward.

She's still dealing with two wards full of Long Covid patients, hence the reason for needing more hours. She's gone from 0.5 to full-time, back to 0.7 and now 1.2 for a while. They're doing similar with other staff in preparation.

 

[classic33]

Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .

And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?

You know people like facts on here 😉

I can be as careful as ever, however there remains a chance that I'll end up in A&E due to circumstances beyond my control. The same as always, but with added measures in place at the hospitals, which means things take longer.

 

[Deleted User]

All good stuff but it seems to miss the point that a sizeable chunk of the population will interpret Monday as a green light to exercise no caution at all and the general environment will almost certainly become a more hazardous place. Anyway, that's the message that the scientists seem to be sending out.

I'm sure certain situations will be but avoid them, can't see the panic myself.

Certain venues will be opening which no-one is being forced to go to, instead of walking into a pub with a mask on and immediately taking if off you no longer have to wear one so not really protecting people that much in my opinion.

If you're worried sit outside?

If your workplace is forcing you to be at risk from Monday then I can understand the concern but I would be surprised if there's many cases of that amongst the posters on here.

 

[Deleted User]

I can be as careful as ever, however there remains a chance that I'll end up in A&E due to circumstances beyond my control. The same as always, but with added measures in place at the hospitals, which means things take longer.

You have to admit you seem to be quite extreme case from what I've read of your posts.

 

[Buck]

Well if you're careful you won't get ill will you?
Are they grinding to a halt? will you be able to provide proof to back up that statement ( in time honoured tradition on this forum) .

And if they are is it in the area this person lives in?

You know people like facts on here 😉

If you are careful and follow current guidance you will reduce your risk of catching the virus from someone else but you will not reduce your risk to zero.