An excellent question, maybe if we nuke covid it will dissuade other coronaviruses
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Current restrictions, or indeed common sense during a pandemic... in one way, it didn't really matter whether there were legal restrictions or not because no-one seemed to be enforcing them. If there were no regulations but the events had been run cleanly, I'm sure everyone would be happy with that, but it seems we can't just trust people to do that.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!
Er. I don't think ad hominem means what you think it means.
I believe @mjr was alluding to Churchill's rousing statement as part of the "We shall fight them on the beaches" etc which includes the phrase "we shall never surrender".
I don't think you can justify getting huffy when someone points out that Churchill's words about war can also be used against your argument.
IMO, abandoning all restrictions and letting covid run rampant while 48% of the populace isn't fully vaccinated is a explicit acknowledgement that there is no way to defeat covid so you may as well let it do whatever it will.
In a war context, when one side accepts that they're powerless to stop the other, this is known as surrender.
Ad hominem: attacks the characteristics or authority of the writer without addressing the substance of the argument
"I seem to remember the old aristo had a few words to say about surrendering, too!"
Is straight down the line ad hominem, which is not, as some think, limited to direct personal attack.
If the substance of the argument was that Churchill had things to say about war that seemed apposite, then @mjr not only acknowledged, but agreed with the sentiment.
If the writer referred to in your definition is you, they didn't attack your characteristics or authority. At all.
Presumably the bit you think that constitutes an attack is "the old aristo", and if the context in which this phrase was an attempt to deflect Churchill's words because of his characteristics. e.g. "who cares what he said, he was an old aristo" you'd be right.
Unfortunately, it wasn't, and, well...
Pale Rider
Legendary Member
Sunderland continues to hold its unwanted position as virus central.
Rate per 100,000 is now 987, although I detect a small slowing down in the rate of increase.
On t'other hand, the BBC may have to redraw the scale on its graph for the under 60s.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Rate per 100,000 is now 987, although I detect a small slowing down in the rate of increase.
On t'other hand, the BBC may have to redraw the scale on its graph for the under 60s.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Latest 7-day average cases (UK) = 39.7kpd on 13 Jul. Corresponding day in Dec/Jan wave was Boxing Day (@38.9k).
9 days (case test positive to hospital admission delay) after that, number of admissions was 3974 (7-day average on 5 Jan).
Projecting current rate of increase on hospital admissions we can estimate 864 admissions (7-day average) on 22 Jul (9 days after 13 Jul: see first statement.)
Suggests a hospitalisation rate of about a fifth compared to that in January.
Bed occupancy lags 10 days behind admissions and in the Dec/Jan wave was roughly/rule of thumb 9 times admissions (of ten days earlier).
On 15 Jul there were about 4000 in 'COVID' beds in UK hospitals (note about 500 admissions ten days earlier).
I can see no obvious mechanism for case rates to stop rising until the effects of approaching herd immunity (by a combo of vaccination and prior infection) mean the susceptible population is reduced and thus transmission (effective R number) drops to 1 or below: the effect will be heterogeneous (urban/rural and N/S).
The current rate implies a million new cases every 20 days (might we assume a fifth of those will be already vaccinated?).
There must be a community case to extend the vaccination offer to 16 and 17 year olds: is a JCVI pronouncement expected imminently?
These teenagers will likely catch it (eventually) if they aren't vaccinated, and whilst very very few will end up in hospital (remember all those who are vulnerable or have UHC will already have been vaccinated (if medically safe so to do)), long-COVID seems an unattractive possibility which surely they'd like to mitigate the risk of (by getting vaccinated).
9 days (case test positive to hospital admission delay) after that, number of admissions was 3974 (7-day average on 5 Jan).
Projecting current rate of increase on hospital admissions we can estimate 864 admissions (7-day average) on 22 Jul (9 days after 13 Jul: see first statement.)
Suggests a hospitalisation rate of about a fifth compared to that in January.
Bed occupancy lags 10 days behind admissions and in the Dec/Jan wave was roughly/rule of thumb 9 times admissions (of ten days earlier).
On 15 Jul there were about 4000 in 'COVID' beds in UK hospitals (note about 500 admissions ten days earlier).
I can see no obvious mechanism for case rates to stop rising until the effects of approaching herd immunity (by a combo of vaccination and prior infection) mean the susceptible population is reduced and thus transmission (effective R number) drops to 1 or below: the effect will be heterogeneous (urban/rural and N/S).
The current rate implies a million new cases every 20 days (might we assume a fifth of those will be already vaccinated?).
There must be a community case to extend the vaccination offer to 16 and 17 year olds: is a JCVI pronouncement expected imminently?
These teenagers will likely catch it (eventually) if they aren't vaccinated, and whilst very very few will end up in hospital (remember all those who are vulnerable or have UHC will already have been vaccinated (if medically safe so to do)), long-COVID seems an unattractive possibility which surely they'd like to mitigate the risk of (by getting vaccinated).
Maybe one for the medics to answer - but given that hospitals are now not overstretched in the way they were and people had to be very ill before being admitted, is it the case now that less ill people are being admitted.
DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
I suspect the answer may be different, depending on whether you mean "fewer ill people are being admitted" or "people who are less ill are being admitted".
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
To be clear, I used the phrase 'hospitalisation rate' to describe the fraction of daily hospital admissions divided by daily recorded cases 9 days earlier: in other words what fraction of cases (positive PCR) result in serious (hospitalisation) illness.
The 95% most vulnerable (JCVI Gps 1-9) have all (95+% uptake) received full vaccination giving them a a 95% protection against 'serious illness' (NB all figures with a tight confidence interval). One might actually hope/expect the hospitalisation rate to be less (15% rather than 20%).
It seems plausible @PK99 that there will be a slightly lower threshold for hospital admission (as Dave's second option) when COVID bed occupancy is a low percentage of total beds, but I'm not a medic (@Buck ?).
The 95% most vulnerable (JCVI Gps 1-9) have all (95+% uptake) received full vaccination giving them a a 95% protection against 'serious illness' (NB all figures with a tight confidence interval). One might actually hope/expect the hospitalisation rate to be less (15% rather than 20%).
It seems plausible @PK99 that there will be a slightly lower threshold for hospital admission (as Dave's second option) when COVID bed occupancy is a low percentage of total beds, but I'm not a medic (@Buck ?).
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deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
You're obviously not suggesting that patients are just sitting waiting in corridors for a week and a half so, when you write ''admissions,'' do you mean contracting covid?
To clarify:
I was pondering whether the "severity of illness threshold" for hospital admission is now lower than at earlier stages of the pandemic when beds were in short supply.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Meanwhile, double-jabbed Javid has tested positive and, with mild symptoms, he's self-isolating. I wonder whether this will bring about a greater readiness on his part to treat covid as an illness rather than an economic inconvenience.
