Coronavirus outbreak

[lane]

Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the numbers of people dying from coronavirus would rise.
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."

Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead.

Same old same old.

Meanwhile Give makes a bit more sense

"One can never predict the future with perfect confidence," he told BBC Breakfast.
"But insofar as we can be confident about anything in this complex world, we can be confident that the increased level of vaccination that we will have by 19 July should allow us to further relax restrictions."

 

[mjr]

Meanwhile Give makes a bit more sense

"One can never predict the future with perfect confidence," he told BBC Breakfast.
"But insofar as we can be confident about anything in this complex world, we can be confident that the increased level of vaccination that we will have by 19 July should allow us to further relax restrictions."

For some reason, these words came to mind: I think the people in this country have had enough of this government, saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong. Because these people are the same ones who got consistently wrong what was happening.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

G7 leaves a lasting legacy?


View: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1404820285384282120


(could equally be down to tourists, or some other reason TBF)

 

[mjr]

G7 leaves a lasting legacy?


View: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1404820285384282120


(could equally be down to tourists, or some other reason TBF)

Does Cornwall get that many more tourists than Devon or the S/E beaches?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the numbers of people dying from coronavirus would rise.
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead. Same old same old.

The Prof speaks entire truth and sense: first deaths: "the numbers of people dying from coronavirus will rise" - NSS
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," and what is the deduction from that suggested "real question"?
Regrettably the daily death rate will still be rising on 12 July, in fact (well not yet fact) I reckon cases will still be rising so deaths will not peak till "no earlier than" 1 Aug. Do you think that a second derivative should be the metric for deciding to maintain restrictions, or would the number itself be better: below a threshold? The tragic death rate is a lagging indicator and therefore not useful for forward planning.
People will die in UK with or of COVID-19 nearly every day for the next few years. Are you recommending no fornication unless from the same household till then?
Second , admissions: "It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
Of course it's possible. In fact that's exactly what has just happened! What deduction do you think we should draw? The issue is the adverse affect on the NHS, its staff and all the other healthcare provision. Would it be worth setting a threshold for daily hospital admissions on 12 Jul? What figure do you think the good Professor Medley would suggest? Is below 2000 admissions a day "OK"?
In the dog days of August the admission rate dropped below 100. It's currently about 150-200 (but there's been no update for several days). Peak on 9 Jan was 4232pd, 8 days after daily by specimen cases peaked on 1 Jan at 61,241.
If, in Jan, we'd been at the same state of national vaccination as we will be by mid Jul, about 2500 of those would not have presented to hospital. (65% were in JCVI Gps 1-9 and they have 90+% protection against severe illness: 4232x 0.65x 0.9 = 2475.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...but-charts-show-right-delay-reopening-england
I think the more useful comparative measure we can do from the dashboard data henceforth is hospital occupancy:

• The more people there are in hospital, the more people are going to be dying.
• Fundamentally it's having too high a level of hospital occupancy where things start unravelling.

"Meanwhile" the PM did not "insist" Phase 4 of the four phase relaxation plan "will go ahead in July". For no apparent reason, you are misrepresenting what he said and the caveats he shared. He clearly fervently hoped it would be a 'terminus', but "insist": not what I heard. Go and review the briefing and Q&A and report back.

 

[lane]

The Prof speaks entire truth and sense: first deaths: "the numbers of people dying from coronavirus will rise" - NSS
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," and what is the deduction from that suggested "real question"?
Regrettably the daily death rate will still be rising on 12 July, in fact (well not yet fact) I reckon cases will still be rising so deaths will not peak till "no earlier than" 1 Aug. Do you think that a second derivative should be the metric for deciding to maintain restrictions, or would the number itself be better: below a threshold? The tragic death rate is a lagging indicator and therefore not useful for forward planning.
People will die in UK with or of COVID-19 nearly every day for the next few years. Are you recommending no fornication unless from the same household till then?
Second , admissions: "It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
Of course it's possible. In fact that's exactly what has just happened! What deduction do you think we should draw? The issue is the adverse affect on the NHS, its staff and all the other healthcare provision. Would it be worth setting a threshold for daily hospital admissions on 12 Jul? What figure do you think the good Professor Medley would suggest? Is below 2000 admissions a day "OK"?
In the dog days of August the admission rate dropped below 100. It's currently about 150-200 (but there's been no update for several days). Peak on 9 Jan was 4232pd, 8 days after daily by specimen cases peaked on 1 Jan at 61,241.
If, in Jan, we'd been at the same state of national vaccination as we will be by mid Jul, about 2500 of those would not have presented to hospital. (65% were in JCVI Gps 1-9 and they have 90+% protection against severe illness: 4232x 0.65x 0.9 = 2475.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...but-charts-show-right-delay-reopening-england
I think the more useful comparative measure we can do from the dashboard data henceforth is hospital occupancy:

• The more people there are in hospital, the more people are going to be dying.
• Fundamentally it's having too high a level of hospital occupancy where things start unravelling.

"Meanwhile" the PM did not "insist" Phase 4 of the four phase relaxation plan "will go ahead in July". For no apparent reason, you are misrepresenting what he said and the caveats he shared. He clearly fervently hoped it would be a 'terminus', but "insist": not what I heard. Go and review the briefing and Q&A and report back.

Sorry my bad - the " Meanwhile Boris insists July unlocking will go ahead" was quote from the news report I was quoting - I don't think my post made that clear.

 

[matticus]

A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!

 

[mjr]

A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!

No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

A month ago some people were adamant that Boris would go ahead with relaxations on June 21st, no matter what the data showed. So write what you like!

Well, I think you should name the "some people" who said that & link to their posts.

Otherwise some people (not me, oh no, never) might think you just made that up.

What is worth noting is that barely a week before the announcement, Johnson trumpeted that he saw nothing in the data to suggest a delay was necessary. The data continued exactly as expected, and a delay duly followed.

 

[Deleted User]

No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)

It doesn't make much difference to people who have enjoyed going out though, 4 more weeks until you can take your mask off going to the bog or sit with more than 6.

 

[matticus]

No, a month ago we were criticising the 17th(?) May step and saying it should lead to postponement of the 21 June one. I won't say "I told you so" oh whoops(!)

No need; the system was/is designed to adapt in exactly this way!

 

[Deleted User]

Once again, those who feel it's still unsafe to mix don't have to.

More room in the pubs for those that do.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Once again, those who feel it's still unsafe to mix don't have to.

More room in the pubs for those that do.

Once again, pandemic disease is more a societal than individual risk.

 

[lane]

Hospitalisations up by 173 today. I know it's still quite a low number and overall we have just over 1,000 in hospital but the 7 day average is up by 41%.

 

[Bromptonaut]

What is worth noting is that barely a week before the announcement, Johnson trumpeted that he saw nothing in the data to suggest a delay was necessary. The data continued exactly as expected, and a delay duly followed.

He is at least consistent. Dashing headlong to a screeching halt is exactly what happened over earlier lockdowns and the Xmas screw up.