Coronavirus outbreak

[newfhouse]

What price is someone's life [1] and I know what I think matters, but then again I have no sympathy for people/businesses borrowing to the hilt. I've always had a contingency fund from when I first started work, hell Mum insisted I could always pay my way for 6 months without work - rather hard from day one of employment...

[1] be that Covid directly or that hospitals can't do 'usual' stuff.

I wasn’t advocating an immediate removal of the remaining restrictions, and I understand why certainty isn’t possible. I was expressing sympathy for people that worry about their livelihoods. There are still an awful lot of people that have fallen between the cracks in the various support schemes, many through no fault of their own.

 

[mjr]

6pm press conference, delayed to reduce competing with football, widely expected to announce four week delay. Example https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/what-time-boris-johnson-announcement-b1865244.html

R rate is 120-140% so it's spreading again and now mostly the delta variant, which hasn't hit hospitals too hard yet but I've heard reports that there are worries about how delta will affect hospitals, both in bed occupancy and in health workers having to isolate, which sounds like gov.uk aren't confident that both the "Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS" and the "assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of the virus" tests are passed just now.

I'm slightly surprised that they seem to be shaping up for a four week delay, rather than a "we'll look again in two weeks but prepare for a further delay".

 

[lane]

According to press reports 4 weeks allows another 10m to have second jab so I suspect that is what the Government wants to achieve before fully opening.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

According to press reports 4 weeks allows another 10m to have second jab so I suspect that is what the Government wants to achieve before fully opening.

I agree with you but, pre-empting the official announcement, I think 'considering' needs to be inserted before 'fully'.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Key other positive of a revised 'no earlier than' (besides an extra 14M doses (split first jab/second jab)) is the reasonable expectation of less uncertainty wrt the Delta VoC, in particular, transmission advantage (cf Alpha VoC: central estimate +1.6) and thus effect on Reff, and in a slowly improving vaccination percentage, any change in the ratio (cf Alpha VoC) between number of symptomatic cases and the number developing serious illness (therefore needing hospitalisation edit: - with significant secondary effects on general health care provision).
Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics
Edit: On the obverse, delay to plaster-ripping risks:

• Immunity waning (either from pre-infections in 2020 or from jabs)
• Newer worse variants from abroad or domestic
• Voluntary NPIs weaken (eg wfh back to places of work, general social mixing, use of public transport, poor adherence to self-isolation)

 

[mjr]

• Voluntary NPIs weaken (eg wfh back to places of work, general social mixing, use of public transport, poor adherence to self-isolation)

I suspect 3 of those 4 is already happening anyway thanks to euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in. What geniuses thought it was a good idea to hold large gatherings of fans of a sport known for alcohol and a few sudden short extreme highs amidst long doldrums, instead of encouraging smaller gatherings in front of big screens in beer gardens?

 

[matticus]

euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in.

Are they doing fan parks?? Seriously??

(BTW I doubt they are quite as much fun as a "clothed orgy" )

 

[lane]

I suspect 3 of those 4 is already happening anyway thanks to euro2020 and people travelling to big "fanparks" that pretty much look like a clothed orgy whenever a goal goes in. What geniuses thought it was a good idea to hold large gatherings of fans of a sport known for alcohol and a few sudden short extreme highs amidst long doldrums, instead of encouraging smaller gatherings in front of big screens in beer gardens?

Which 1 of the 4 don't you think is happening?

 

[mjr]

Which 1 of the 4 don't you think is happening?

I don't think euro2020 is causing people to go to the office instead of working from home. At least, not directly, but I guess some bosses may be suspicious that people working from home have a TV visible and so demand they go into the office where they can be forced to concentrate (as if).

 

[mjr]

Are they doing fan parks?? Seriously??

Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.

Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044

 

[lane]

I don't think euro2020 is causing people to go to the office instead of working from home. At least, not directly, but I guess some bosses may be suspicious that people working from home have a TV visible and so demand they go into the office where they can be forced to concentrate (as if).

Probably not but there is a definite drift back to the office, presumably for other reasons.

 

[lane]

Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.

Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044

Is this an attempt to keep people outside rather than gathering indoors maybe?

 

[Johnno260]

I see there are people in London marching in protest against the extension.

Even if it’s an overreaction the government is criticized either way, and I know some of those entitled things in London they wouldn’t be happy with anything.

 

[matticus]

Yes. TV this morning showed police being called to one after its very drunk inhabitants decided to try marching on (well, staggering to) the town centre to celebrate.

Here's Glasgow's one being called a "covid gateway event" but apparently in a positive way (and no, not positive tests): https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/euro-fan-zone-glasgow-leitch-20791044

Hmm. Sounds thought-through, but not very convincing. The headline below is unfortunate:

Nicola Sturgeon bans car sharing and household gatherings across Scotland as pubs hit with curfew
Glasgow Live

 

[mjr]

Is this an attempt to keep people outside rather than gathering indoors maybe?

That's not been an argument I've read and it wouldn't make sense to me: if the weather is good, people would be outside anyways; if the weather is poor, then I bet the fanparks will be pretty empty.

It might have been better to help pubs get outdoor big screens and possibly ban indoor screenings. As it is, these fanparks are probably further harming pub incomes.

PM press conference text now online (missing where he said "company" instead of "country" once ) https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-coronavirus-press-conference-14-june-2021

Not there yet is the bit that surprised me, where I think CMO Whitty basically declared two tests failed due to the different behaviour of the delta variant, rather than merely being uncertain.