Coronavirus outbreak

[Unkraut]

What's that one called? How does it get round privacy problems?

I recall seeing someone working in intensive care who had the corona app on their phone saying that it remained green all the time - despite working with infected people day in day out it never picked up a contact to warn them about.

The new privately developed app is known as luca. As far as I know all of the health authority tracing system country-wide has been enabled to use it. A short overview:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-luca-app-makes-contact-tracing-easier/av-57075840

 

[Unkraut]

Pretty sure the modelling suggests that at the low percentages you quote, vaccinations will have had little impact on the daily case rate.

The claim I saw was that the vaccination campaign is only just beginning to have an effect. Nearly a third of the population have one injection. The main reason the rate is coming down must be people are keeping the corona restrictions. Karl Lauterbach, the SPD member who is a virologist, has been pleading for central and regional government not to relax the restrictions too soon. Just another three weeks and the rate should drop exponentially, and this time vaccination will have a definite impact. The rate is nearly 800 000 a day on average.

There is a complicated set of regulations as to just what can and cannot be opened up depending on the infection rate, over 100 per 100 000 centrally and under that level regionally. I cycled through Heidelberg today, and there is much more normality than where I live, the infection rate is almost down to 60.

Chile serves as a warning of what can happen when a country gets on with vaccination and then lifts the restrictions to soon and experiences another wave of infections. It would be foolish for western European countries not to learn from this.

Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, ...

The Schengen agreement has always allowed for the reintroduction of travel restrictions at borders in exceptional circumstances, and various German states have made good use of this with so many neighbouring countries having experienced massively high rates of infection. I don't the EU in Brussels has always been too keen on this, but there is not much they can do about it. The ideal of free movement is fine, but not the free movement of infected people, notwithstanding the economic problems that temporarily closed borders can create.

 

[silva]

In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower. View attachment 587391

Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago. View attachment 587885

The figures in India are likely under reported by a huge factor.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833

 

[Ajax Bay]

Agree the actual deaths (due to SARS-CoV-2) in India will be being massively under reported.
And infections/cases even more so. Note: population of 1391M.
Since last summer:

 

[Ajax Bay]

ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey - latest data
Comment:
Covers 26 April to 2 May; well after Phase 2 restriction relaxation on 12 Apr so any effects from that’d show: and there’s none. Next stage of relaxations seems assured (that was the point of having the stages and 5 weeks between each).

Infection rates slowly falling. ONS’s central estimate is that 8 people in every 1000 across the UK would have tested positive on 2 May: down 12% in a week. Still 50% higher than EOTHO period last summer. Lower would be better but even if case rate increases in the summer, superbly high vaccination up-take by the more vulnerable (and expected the complete adult population by then) will still mean levels of serious illness are minimised.

On incidence of new infections, ONS estimates for UK are 3700 new infections each day for the week ending 25 April, which is a fifth lower than the estimate for the previous week (4610). There’s no sign of any increase after the easing of restrictions (but ONS note there’s a good deal of statistical uncertainty in these estimates).

 

[Craig the cyclist]

I recall seeing someone working in intensive care who had the corona app on their phone saying that it remained green all the time - despite working with infected people day in day out it never picked up a contact to warn them about.

But as you don't 'check in to a venue' when you go to work in ICU, it won't work the same as going in to a restaurant. The other ping is from someone who has tested positive, but to be honest, if you are in ICU you probably haven't got your phone on you anyway.

 

[MrGrumpy]

We have received , about 4 emails in the last week from the high school of + Covid cases appearing with pupils. Whatever the data is saying , it’s still out there and potentially spreading. Let’s just hope the vaccines do their job.

just to add youngest has done three swab tests at home this weekend as not feeling great. Sore throat etc . Hope that’s all it is !

 

[SpokeyDokey]

According to Worldometer stat's we are continuing to move down the list re deaths/million of population - now 15th.

Whilst I take no pleasure or displeasure in the figures higher or lower than those of the UK it does seem that we currently have a decent grasp of the situation, relative to some other countries, despite our ignominious start.

I can only assume that this trend will continue, looking at the serious caseload figures of some of the countries that are currently further down the table than us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (Scroll down)

 

[matticus]

According to Worldometer stat's we are continuing to move down the list re deaths/million of population - now 15th.
<snip>

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (Scroll down)

It seems a weird statistical quirk (to me) that when you sort by TOTAL deaths, we jump up to 5th. Suggesting that we are a large country, population-wise. /off-topic-ramble

 

[Ajax Bay]

Whatever the data is saying , it’s still out there and potentially spreading. Let’s just hope the vaccines do their job.

The data is clearly showing it is "still out there" (otherwise there'd be no new cases) and "spreading" (no "potentially" caveat). Edit: The four UK Chief Medical Officers have [today 10 May] agreed that the UK Alert Level should move from Level 4 to Level 3. They cautioned: "COVID is still circulating with people catching and spreading the virus every day so we all need to continue to be vigilant. This remains a major pandemic globally."
The drop in daily cases and the ONS infection estimates on which I commented ^^^ suggests that it is "spreading" but with an effective R of less than one. In UK the combination of NPIs and the effect of vaccination shrinking the percentage susceptible together is designed to keep Reff below 1, or at least not much above 1.

If cases do rise, the proven effect of vaccination will mean that the resultant numbers who develop even serious illness will be low enough for society/community (as judged by our leaders) to accept, weighed against other considerations. Across UK the daily death (associated with COVID-19) count has dropped below 12 per day (tragic for each individual and their family and friends). Deaths per week from all causes are running at below average level, and have been since mid March: currently 10,000 deaths a week.

For the next two months the positives are the increasing percentage of the population vaccinated and the lovely late spring and summer weather/temperatures to which we all look forward. The confounders are the possibility (no more than that) of significant prevalence of a VoC (either of greater transmissibility or against which the current vaccines offer lower effectiveness) and the chance that relaxation of restrictions (both on 17 May and no earlier than 21 Jun) allow the Reff to increase well above 1.

 

[mjr]

Look at India, until recently they barely had any Covid-19 wave.
And even now, it's still 1/10 th amount deaths per mil than my country (200 versus 2000)
But media here shows in corona news people cremated on street (which is cultural) and pictures/videos from... an earthquake havoc of some time ago. View attachment 587885

Yesterday's news there was of Belgium's boner of relaxing restrictions on a Saturday and reopening beer gardens and cafe terraces, resulting in people refusing to disperse at closing time (now 10pm), the mayor of Ixelles reading the riot act equivalent and riot police and water cannons being sent in at 0130...

One thing gov.uk has gotten right lately is relaxing England's restrictions usually on Mondays, so the novelty seems to have worn off for most people by the following weekend.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yesterday's news there was of Belgium's boner

 

[Ajax Bay]

One thing gov.uk has gotten right

Nonetheless agree with your judgement and analysis.

 

[Ajax Bay]

SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – Roadmap Step 3 was considered by SAGE 88 on 5 May.
[My precis of its] Summary
(Read the link for the actual summary (two pages), and forgive the limitations my brevity has forced.)
There remains considerable uncertainty about behaviour, and therefore transmission, generally. Modelling produces more optimistic estimates than those in SPI-M-O’s previous Roadmap modelling because now there’s evidence that vaccines significantly reduce transmission from people who have been vaccinated but nevertheless become infected then symptomatic [previously the transmission assumptions were 'cautious' (aka pessimistic)]
Not considered:

• waning immunity
• future emergence or dominance of VoC

Now included/assumptions refined:

• some impact of seasonal changes in transmission
• vaccine rollout speed and vaccine uptake % informed by UK experience [as opposed to 'cautious' assumptions]

Highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths but its peak will be small (central estimates) however, the scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain.