Coronavirus outbreak

[matticus]

Agree with @mjr on need for fully functioning T&T mechanism

Has any large western country achieved this?

FULLY FUNCTIONING was the phrase in question. Do you agree that Germany got a lot closer to this than the UK?

You then moved to arguing about "effective"; well that's even harder to judge, as cases/deaths/etc will depend on a multitude of things. (e.g. vaccine rollout will swamp almost all other issues). So it's almost meaningless to say that Germany's system was not "effective".

 

[PK99]

Germany

They did at the start with low case numbers, but the wheels fell off in the second wave with high case numbers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/why-germanys-coronavirus-strategy-doesnt-appear-to-be-working.html

 

[Eric Olthwaite]

In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower.

But that was also true of the first wave, when Germany did not have fully functioning T&T system.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low.

But when the numbers were low, they had this hugely effective T&T system that would keep them low (you just said that here). However the numbers rose again very steeply, so it didn't keep the numbers low did it?

T&T's effectiveness is not on how well the app works or doesn't, it is about how willing the population are to follow it. In the UK, people are ignoring the tracing element of it. It isn't that aren't being tracked and contacted, it is that once notified people don't follow the rules! The rate of hang-ups once the operator says 'This is NHS T&T' is quite staggering!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522

Germany’s intensive system of testing, contact tracing, and quarantine were critical to successful control of the outbreak,

 

[mjr]

But when the numbers were low, they had this hugely effective T&T system that would keep them low (you just said that here). However the numbers rose again very steeply, so it didn't keep the numbers low did it?

Maybe it did, until the wave overwhelmed its capacity?

T&T's effectiveness is not on how well the app works or doesn't,

T&T is not just an app. The app has been pretty useless, as far as anyone can tell. Germany's Corona-Warn-App has suffered a similar fate. Has anywhere had an effective app?

it is about how willing the population are to follow it. In the UK, people are ignoring the tracing element of it. It isn't that aren't being tracked and contacted, it is that once notified people don't follow the rules! The rate of hang-ups once the operator says 'This is NHS T&T' is quite staggering!

That is another problem with the UK response. The compensation offered to low-paid workers to quarantine seems to be insufficient to get compliance. One report I read said that 60% of UK quarantiners surveyed independently had broken quarantine in the 24 hours before being asked (this was detected by asking "have you done X since ..." rather than asking "have you broken quarantine"!).

There are other aspects of not following rules which isn't helping the UK, which I've posted about earlier, such as non-use of masks, not working from home, not avoiding crowds, not washing hands and surfaces more — but I don't think the UK was noticeably worse than Germany on most indicators, so this doesn't explain the difference.

 

[Johnno260]

The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.

 

[Drago]

2 staff members tested positive in Mrs D's school today, so that 2 staff and 51 pupils having to isolate. Thanks heavens Mrs D has jab #2 next wednesday, and mine next Thursday.

The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.

Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.

 

[mjr]

The other issue with track and trace is I know a lot of people who give false information, like anything if you put junk in, you get junk out.

Yeah, but why are they doing that? And I assume you just mean the venue check-in thing, which I think has been a very little-used part of tracing.

2 staff members tested positive in Mrs D's school today, so that 2 staff and 51 pupils having to isolate. Thanks heavens Mrs D has jab #2 next wednesday, and mine next Thursday.

Thank heavens that it will reduce risk of harm, you mean? Vaccinated people still have to isolate in that situation, don't they? (Genuine question: I don't have direct exposure to school bubbles any more and am months from my second jab, so it's not something I've looked into.)

Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.

So you don't think that some don't isolate because they feel they cannot afford to, in some way, whether loss of income, risk to job or harm to people they care for? And yes, I know that last one seems ironic, but maybe the sole carer for a vaccinated person would view the risk of harm from lack of care to be higher than the risk of catching covid.

 

[Johnno260]

Yeah, but why are they doing that? And I assume you just mean the venue check-in thing, which I think has been a very little-used part of tracing

One of my crackpot relatives has given false information for anything where it was requested, some pubs with out door seating etc things like that

also someone who I thought was sensible has given false information for it as well.

Not to mention evidence that the app is pinging a significant number of folk, who then don't bother to isolate themselves because they feel ok (and because they're selfish cretins). It only takes a modest percentage to misbehave and the whole system fails in its objective.

I think this whole situation has exposed some people for the selfish entitled brats they’re, all the anti lockdown crowd just come across as entitled snowflakes who are upset at being asked to do something that’s socially responsible

a friend was complaining about protests being broken up, and it’s being a right taken away, I said something titled Kill the Bill sorry tear gas those muppets, that’s not a peaceful protest.

 

[Unkraut]

So if it [Germany] has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?

I don't think T & T in Germany has been particularly effective. It was adherence to the hygiene measures that prevented a repetition of Italy last March. It's true Germany had the world's most expensive app, but it only enabled tracing of about 4% of cases - better than nothing, but not much better! It was rendered ineffective by obsessions with data privacy.

The public health admin system was chronically underfunded, undermanned and using yesterday's technology. Staff had to be boosted by about 10 000 soldiers seconded from the Army.

Too little was done about this over last summer when the infection rates were low and complacency set in. Testing was not brought up to speed either, shown in the number of infections and deaths in care homes over winter.

A nationwide unified computer system for tracking was only functioning from about the beginning of March this year. A new app has been developed privately that gets round most of the privacy problems, and will also help with tracking.

The second wave, largely triggered by returning holidaymakers, was stopped but not turned round by the lockdown lite in November, necessitating longer lockdown measures. Too little too late.

The third wave is in effect a new pandemic with the British variant. It looked as though it might get completely out of control with rates shooting up, but for about a week now the infection rate is slowly coming down. The vaccination numbers are just starting to show an effect, expected to reduce the infection rate dramatically by the end of May. The now improved T & T will be able to cope.

Government policy and Merkel in particular have generally been right all through, what went wrong were delays in implementing measures, and bureaucratic failures to ensure they were effectively implemented. The post-war decentralised power structure has made it difficult for the political establishment to get on with it, and has blurred allocation of responsibility.

It's easy to be critical, especially with hindsight, but you can see the strain and exhaustion in dealing with a pandemic for months on the faces of both minister-presidents and central government ministers.

 

[mjr]

Thanks for a detailed view from Germany.

It's true Germany had the world's most expensive app, but it [...] was rendered ineffective by obsessions with data privacy.

Really? It wasn't that the basic idea of bluetooth pinging (range up to 8m or more, works through walls, works better in large airy spaces) is basically not comparable to the risky close contact (range up to 1-2m, can't go through walls, works worse in large airy spaces) which spreads the virus?

Did Germany have the same problem as the UK, which needlessly limited the semi-automatic "venue check-in" system to phones compatible with the bluetooth pinging of the latest Apple/Google OS versions, when it could have been made much more widely available to almost any camera phone?

A new app has been developed privately that gets round most of the privacy problems, and will also help with tracking.

What's that one called? How does it get round privacy problems?

 

[Ajax Bay]

The third wave is in effect a new pandemic with the British variant. It looked as though it might get completely out of control with rates shooting up, but for about a week now the infection rate is slowly coming down. The vaccination numbers are just starting to show an effect, expected to reduce the infection rate dramatically by the end of May. The now improved T & T will be able to cope.

Moved this across from the 'how are we doing' thread.

. . . we're currently at about 30% of the population in Germany getting their first vaccination, and 8% getting their second. It finally seems to be affecting the numbers of new cases. Our county has been having well under 100 cases per 100 000 for over seven days so we could reduce the lockdown a bit more, but sensible people have pointed out that if we allow more shops to open people from the adjacent counties, which have much higher rates, will come in and bring C-19 with them, so they are waiting for a bit.

Pretty sure the modelling suggests that at the low percentages you quote, vaccinations will have had little impact on the daily case rate. That Germany has got its rate to 1000 per million a day is down to the level of NPI (restrictions etc) which the various Lander are imposing, not vaccinations. The UK is being Germanically (positive compliment!) cautious in its phased lockdown and its daily case rate is 300 per million. With caveats, the prognosis for UK is promising but modelling (for SPI-M and on to SAGE) still suggests a third wave of a moderate nature (mostly cases rather than hospitalisations). Its peak will be suppressed with some NPIs maintained and the vaccination programme rolling on (expected at 70% first dose and 50% second dose by 21 June). I reckon this modelling can be read straight across to Germany and what would happen if they tried to ease restrictions with cases still at a substantial rate.
Perhaps you could solve the problems of people (who are more likely to be infected) resident in other countries by prohibiting their entry at you borders. Does the EU allow its members to impose such restrictions?

Ireland has been restricting access for nearly a year, to essential visits and commercial for the last year*. These restrictions seem set to remain in place this summer.
*Even then you've to provide a negative test result(commercial drivers) and essential visits/returning home 14 days quarantine upon entry.

Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, without the benefit of a water gap?

 

[classic33]

Can EU member states effectively enforce trans-border movement restrictions, without the benefit of a water gap?

No water gap between the Republic if Ireland and Northern Ireland.

 

[Ajax Bay]

No water gap between the Republic if Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Indeedy. I think you are agreeing with me
Part of the reason I advocated months ago, when the 'quasi ineffective' EU vaccine procurement debacle unrolled, that the UK should divert a couple of days supply of vaccines (a million, say) to Ireland with a polite request to deploy a good wadge to the border counties.