lazybloke
Today i follow the flying spaghetti monster
- Location
- Leafy Surrey
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roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
(1) this is opinion, not settled science. Much remains uncertain.
(2) vaccinating adolescents or even younger children may tip the balance
(3) herd immunity is not all or nothing
(4) we have much higher takeup than US so far
Good discussion from Oz perspective on the principles here
https://theconversation.com/amp/we-...vaccinated-well-be-safe-from-the-worst-159821
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Herd immunity is absolutely not 'all or nothing': I agree. With good take-up % down to 18s (maybe 16s) I think this will bear down on transmission Reff combined with seasonal effects. Agree with @mjr on need for fully functioning T&T mechanism. Can't help thinking this would be most effectively provided by local PH organisation (eg county or metropolitan) to confine outbreaks in areas/communities with lower take-up or casual disregard for sensible behaviour in the summer. And to make sure the existence/prevalence of VoC is kept under national surveillance.
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Eric Olthwaite
Guest
Has any large western country achieved this?
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Germany
Eric Olthwaite
Guest
The same Germany that is currently experiencing a third wave?
matticus
Guru
Well it's a long time since there were TWO Germanies, so what do you think?
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Eric Olthwaite
Guest
So if it has a fully functioning T&T system, and has nevertheless undergone a third wave, what is the point of T&T?
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
It only works at low case numbers, but when numbers are low it can keep them low.
See SK, NZ etc.
3rd wave overwhelmed it in Germany, but was highly effective last year.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Functioning T&T is necessary to keep infections down but not sufficient alone. Without it, you may not even know a new variant is rising or a lockdown is necessary until thousands are doomed to die.
Eric Olthwaite
Guest
Highly effective in what sense? Germany had a second wave at pretty much the same time as the UK.
Craig the cyclist
Über Member
So last year the numbers were low, and the super-effective T&T system kept them that way.........
Right up until it failed and the...........
So it wasn't actually very effective at all was it?
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Yes, it was. But nobody thinks the pandemic can be solved by track and trace alone. It's part of an overall response.
Eg the hugely impressive Aus T&T requires border controls, *and* lockdowns when spikes occur.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
In the sense that Germany had less restrictions than us last year whilst also keeping case numbers lower.
