Coronavirus outbreak

[Poacher]

Thank you for that balanced contribution. No amount of bragging or modesty (eg Vermont) is any consolation to the families of those who've died or to those who are still suffering. You don't know that other policies would have been better for Florida, whatever their intelligence quotient.
Fact Check: Deaths in Florida due to COVID-19 (as registered) show as 33+k to end March. This is quite a way short of 40k.
Average annual deaths in Florida is about 200k.
If you would prefer to look at excess deaths (since Mar 2020) then there's probably been over 40k in 13 months - but not all are COVID-19 directly.

There have been fairly strong suspicions that cause of death figures have been adjusted downwards under pressure from politicians.
Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop. (tampabay.com)
Florida is undercounting COVID-19 deaths, per new report | Blogs (orlandoweekly.com)

 

[Ajax Bay]

For a fortnight 12-27 March, the UK's case rate was almost flat, But by 30 March (last day of 'specimen date data) it was headed down by 16% (week on week). I can only surmise that the doubling of the testing as schools went back had the effect of detecting many asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have been even tested and that negated the continued ?exponential decay in the case rate effected by social restrictions keeping 'R' below 1 and affected by the steady reduction in the proportion of the population which is susceptible to infection, last month almost all through vaccination.
Six weeks ago, after the Government's 'road map' announcement I looked at how likely it was that the 4 'data' tests would be satisfied at the decision point (-7 days) before each stage of the 'no earlier than' restriction relaxation. On hospitalisations I suggested that the (24 Feb) 15,906 bed occupancy (COVID-19 positive patients, UK) would drop and might be expected to be less than 5000 by the end of April. In fact the numbers dropped to below 4000 by the end of MARCH. I think this means that less than 4% of UK hospital beds are currently needed by C19 patients.
To allow perspective (this is not a comparison but offers an idea of magnitude), C19 hospital admission rate on 24 Mar was about 0.5 per 100,000 and last year flu admissions at their peak in January 2020 were 6.8 per 100,000. Every normal year, flu hospitalisations (and deaths btw) peak in January - winter 2019-2020 was average for flu in UK. Mercifully the amount of serious flu around this January (2021) seems to have been almost nil.

 

[rockyroller]

the kids are catching it now. today is 1st day all-in (no more hybrid scheduling) for Wifey's school & the Principal has to quarantine because her 7 yr old caught it from day care. the Father, also a Principal, has to quarantine as well. hang on folks the rest of the school year is gonna be interesting ...

 

[mjr]

For a fortnight 12-27 March, the UK's case rate was almost flat, But by 30 March (last day of 'specimen date data) it was headed down by 16% (week on week). I can only surmise that the doubling of the testing as schools went back had the effect of detecting many asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have been even tested [...]

Can you only surmise that? And is that a reasonable thing to surmise? Is there any correlation between the increase in testing and the number of cases bucking the trend? I didn't see it in the data, but it seems that the testing data is being presented differently from when I was last looking at it closely so I may not be looking in the right places.

 

[Bazzer]

<snip>
To allow perspective (this is not a comparison but offers an idea of magnitude), C19 hospital admission rate on 24 Mar was about 0.5 per 100,000 and last year flu admissions at their peak in January 2020 were 6.8 per 100,000. Every normal year, flu hospitalisations (and deaths btw) peak in January - winter 2019-2020 was average for flu in UK. Mercifully the amount of serious flu around this January (2021) seems to have been almost nil.

Now if only the morons who have disregarded lockdown rules can join the dots between the spread of infection and social interactions?
But I suspect Spot the Dog books are their limit.

 

[matticus]

Can you only surmise that? And is that a reasonable thing to surmise? Is there any correlation between the increase in testing and the number of cases bucking the trend?

What else do you think he should be surmising?
(Or have I misunderstood - maybe you meant it should be stronger than "surmising"?)

 

[mjr]

What else do you think he should be surmising?

That actual cases flattened.

 

[matticus]

That actual cases flattened.

But that would instead of - not as well as.

Anyway, the good news is that downward progress in the numbers has since recommenced

 

[mjr]

UK finally introduces covid testing of incoming lorry drivers.

Some claims that 8000 tourists a day arriving in the UK are mostly ignoring quarantine. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-uk-tourists-flights-coming-in-b1826845.html

 

[Ajax Bay]

The SAGE meeting (85) considered modelling (Warwick Uni) of the hospitalisation levels (and worse) for England assuming relaxation of (most of) the restrictions in stages from March to June.
Executive Summary (very precised, easy read at link: 2/3 of a page)

• Models impact of relaxations in England
• Will be a third wave with a summer (July/August) peak of hospitalisations: severity depends on many factors/assumptions/uncertainties
• Uncertainties:
  • transmission levels at each relaxation step;
  • seasonality effect (both on virus and on outside/inside and ventilation behaviour;
  • vaccine efficacy (in particular preventing transmission),
  • uncertainty in the population-level immunity due to infection,
  • confounding behaviours, both beneficial and detrimental (extended caution even after relaxations; restriction fatigue, post-vaccination ‘freedom’),
• Lower than expected vaccine efficacy or higher transmission (R) after Step 4 (21 June ish) lead to larger wave; while seasonality acts to suppress the summer wave.
• Not accounting for waning immunity (natural infection or vaccination induced),
• Nor accounting for the chance of vaccine escape variants.

And finally, the modelling suggests that during this summer wave, of whatever severity, at its peak about 80% of the resultant deaths will be people who have received both doses of vaccine (45% over 80 and 35% 50-79). ETA: Important to recognise that this does not represent a failure of vaccination, but simply indicates that with high population coverage there will be fewer hospitalised cases, and a higher proportion of these individuals will have been vaccinated.
There were two other models informing SAGE (from Imperial College and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)) but Warwick University produced the better one last time. Serves to illustrate the caution which the next few months will demand.

 

[matticus]

‘Link’ between AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots, EMA official says

European Medicines Agency continues to recommend people get vaccinated, saying benefits outweigh any risks

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-ema-b1827238.html

Appaling use of scare quotes, and an appaling choice of headline. The Indy should be ashamed.

 

[Eric Olthwaite]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-ema-b1827238.html
Appaling use of scare quotes, and an appaling choice of headline. The Indy should be ashamed.

The Independent abandoned any pretence of objective reporting many years ago. Nowadays it's basically an exercise in confirmation bias for Lib Dem voters. And if some people die as collateral damage of its self-righteous mission, so be it.

 

[classic33]

UK finally introduces covid testing of incoming lorry drivers.

Some claims that 8000 tourists a day arriving in the UK are mostly ignoring quarantine. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-uk-tourists-flights-coming-in-b1826845.html

Stena Ferries have required a negative test result, within 72 hours of planned boarding, since last year. Irish Ferries, the same time constraints on the test.

 

[classic33]

An unforeseen benefit.
Repeated elsewhere?

New CSO figures have revealed that the total number of crimes recorded here* in 2020 fell by nearly 12%, dropping to their lowest level since at least 2003.

The total number of crimes here* fell by just under 12% last year, with a a total of 2,935.

This equates to about 8 crimes a day, and is the lowest figure on record, with data available from 2003.

The figures suggest the pandemic has been a major contributory factor – the likes of burglaries and assaults were at their highest levels in the first three months of the year, before most restrictions kicked in.

In fact, all crime categories saw a fall except for drugs offences, which were up by almost a third.

*County Clare.

 

[matticus]

A friend's son is a bobby in London somewhere. He said that during the early lockdown crime almost dried up, and it became very easy to nick drug dealers: because the streets were almost empty, the only people just casually parked up for no apparent reason were very very likely to be dealing!