Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes but what percentage of that august body need to give their approval?

A sample size of them such that there is an 80% chance that the true value lies with the calculated 95% confidence interval of the sampled value.

 

[matticus]

A sample size of them such that there is an 80% chance that the true value lies with the calculated 95% confidence interval of the sampled value.

That sounds about right.

 

[Ajax Bay]

f a vaccine were effective for 52% of people, would it be right to say "most" are protected?

Only if the sample being considered had been vaccinated.

I await the official definition of "most" as approved by the National Society of Statisticians.

Ah, "definitions". See also:
Offered
Gamble
Bet
Major 1st world nation
Hospital recovery
Efficacy
Effectiveness
Essential
Wave
Wavelet
Cyclist
ETA: Success, Optimism bias, Local, 'At cost', Best reasonable efforts

 

[classic33]

As of the 29th March 2021
The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has today been notified of 1 additional death related to COVID-19.

There has been a total of 4,667 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland.

As of 8am today, 331 COVID-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 70 are in ICU. 19 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours.

As of March 26th 2021, 786,569 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Ireland:

567,023 people have received their first dose
219,546 people have received their second dose

From a population of 4,977,400.

 

[Johnno260]

For people that don't believe in this Pandemic, I wish I could show them the results it's had on a family friend.

This person is young and healthy no pre-existing health conditions, she wasn't admitted to hospital but the toll this has taken on her is extreme, she has major lung damage and scarring, and damaged heart valves, on her family walk she is now pushed in a wheelchair.

A certain portion of society need to wake up and realize this isn't a joke.

 

[vickster]

Impending spike among 20 somethings in Nottingham?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135

 

[Johnno260]

Impending spike among 20 somethings in Nottingham?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135

people being selfish is a recurring theme during this episode, along with porch pirates,and these people who moan their right to protest is in jeopardy when the event is called kill the bill, it’s right to peaceful protest haha but I suppose these Neanderthal can’t read yet.

 

[vickster]

people being selfish is a recurring theme during this episode, along with porch pirates,and these people who moan their right to protest is in jeopardy when the event is called kill the bill, it’s right to peaceful protest haha but I suppose these Neanderthal can’t read yet.

They were sunning themselves in the park, not protesting as far as I know

 

[Johnno260]

They were sunning themselves in the park, not protesting as far as I know

I was being a little more general was all, I just throw everyone being daft in the same bucket I suppose haha

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I was being a little more general was all, I just throw everyone being daft in the same bucket I suppose haha

I think most transmission has been in the workplace and in households (inter household mixing a particular concern).

Number of workplaces closed: zero

Outrage over outdoor risk activities of all sorts is out of all proportion to its impact.

 

[Johnno260]

I think most transmission has been in the workplace and in households (inter household mixing a particular concern).

Number of workplaces closed: zero

Outrage over outdoor risk activities of all sorts is out of all proportion to its impact.

True, I think my tolerance is just at zero these days.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I fear that 4 weeks will not be a long enough lock down for France. Their rate of increase is as bad as the UK's was in January. As in UK from mid December onwards, the gradient of the wave in France is driven by the 30+% more transmissible B1.1.7 variant (dominant) though in some departments the B1.351 and the P.1 are 'out-of-control' as well (but have no advantage on the B1.1.7 because they are no more infectious (debatable)). The French had made a prolonged effort to avoid a third lockdown - which meant that the case rate 'slowly' doubled over the 13 week period from 4 Dec to 6 Mar. It has doubled again in 25 days (31 Mar) and it seems likely the next double will be (estimate based on locked-down UK) 20 days. To compare cases in UK quadrupled from 4 Dec to 10 Jan (peak): 37 days. And we are just starting to relax the lockdown restrictions, 12 weeks later, with half our adult population, including the 95+% most vulnerable vaccinated (first dose).
Some few percent of its most vulnerable elderly may be safe because they've been vaccinated. Daily deaths in France started to turn up sharply on 25 Mar - which is what might be expected: 19 days since the cases started to rise. (The delay in UK's last deadly wave was 15 days.)
You can see from the graph below why the German Chancellor is desperate to get all the Länder to lockdown without delay.

 

[mjr]

Detail of French lockdown, which includes a ban on public drinking in respose to out of all proportion outrage about people relaxing outdoors. Still no ban on slow-acting presidents. https://www.france24.com/en/france/...c-spaces-under-new-covid-19-lockdown-measures

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

This annoyed me today front page of the BBC "News" site - "When can we stop wearing facemasks?"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344
When you get to the actual page the title changes to -

Coronavirus: What are the rules for face masks or face coverings?


First two paras -

US health advisors now say people who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 can gather unmasked with others who have been vaccinated.
They can also visit unvaccinated people from one other household indoors without masks or distancing so long as the unvaccinated people are not at high risk for severe Covid-19. But they should still wear masks when out in public.
The UK has yet to make such recommendations, however.

WTAF has what the Yanks are saying got to do with people in the UK who are looking to the UK state broadcaster for information on Covid rules in the UK? Seriously? Especially damaging as a lot of people have the attention spans of ants and will barely look beyond the first para. It's gross feckin stupidity.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Thought I'd share this graph from PH England's ' Weekly National Influenza and COVID-19 Surveillance Report'
The lines shows results of blood analysis (extrapolated and weighted (by age group, sex and NHS region)) for Roche (S) test (black line) showing both vaccine-induced and previous infection induced C19 antibodies; and Roche (N) test (red line) showing just previous C19 infection induced antibodies.

The dataset is up to about 6 days ago and is over 18s in England. The final datapoint on the black line aligns pretty well with the percentage vaccinated by 10 March (14 days before, to allow the vaccine to 'work').
Given:
1) There is a significant seropositive element in the population, without having been vaccinated: 15% (red line above - it averages a little higher in the 18-49s btw); About 22M adults have not been vaccinated: of those 15% who have antibodies is therefore 3+M.
2) 59% of the adult (O/18) population have received their first dose (31M).
3) 75% of the total UK population (ie including the 14M under 18s) is 50M.
Caveats:
# If the vaccination programme proceeds as planned (assumes a resumption of better supply from late April onwards) and
# if herd immunity is achieved at 75% vaccination (see previous posts on discussion of the factors: vaccine % effect on transmission as opposed to 'just' prevention of symptomatic illness, NPI (restriction) measures limiting 'R', dominant variant no more infectious than current)
Then my estimate is that we might reach 'herd immunity' by 14 July. The impact we'd see is that the daily case figure which is likely to rise in the next 6 weeks (NB but not result in severe illness increase - this will decline - cases and hospitalisations have been disconnected by vaccination of the vulnerable half of the population) will tail away in late June onwards and the test and trace mechanism can concentrate on what it can probably manage: whack-a-mole (both outbreaks and VoC discoveries).