Coronavirus outbreak

[Accy cyclist]

30% bleach solution sounds waaaay too strong for hand use. Care to check the source? 3% then maybe....

We were talking about this in the gym tonight. People seem to think that bleach burns the skin. It isn't caustic soda! I use household bleach quite a lot around my flat. Even 100% bleach hasn't done my skin any harm. Just keep it away from your eyes and mouth and it should be ok. I don't think a low amount like 3% will kill the virus or any germs.

 

[marinyork]

To summarise uk position.

Upto 20x the number of diagnosed cases likely.
We are four weeks behind Italy, not two.
Closing schools at this stage is not particularly effective and may infect the elderly as families huddle and visit each other.
Closures would likely have to be for 13 weeks to be very effective.
Football matches and outside events not a particularly high chance of passing on.
If we go too soon with stringent measures the public will just mess about (this happened in italy)
The UK is worried about resurgences in the virus
Building up herd immunity is favourable (and will.work)
The peak will come in May or June
A lot of measures considered by other countries will be implemented, but they are riding the wave and waiting for the right moment.
Really good contact tracing in Jan and Feb helped us a lot.

 

[Mugshot]

View attachment 508113

Photoshop of a still from Jaws where Mayor Vaughn tries to convince everyone to carry on as normal, Boris Johnson was not in Jaws, his inclusion here is satirical.

No way!!!!


View: https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1238016923029430272?s=19

 

[slowmotion]

Here's my public service announcement:

If you obsess about your lack of hand sanitiser, read on. Vodka is about 40% ABV but in order to get a faintly effective hand sanitiser you need about 60-70%. The freezing point of ethanol (ethyl alcohol) is about minus 114 degrees C, but water's is zero degrees C. If you stick your vodka in the deep freeze (about -25C), the water will turn to ice but the alcohol will remain liquid. Fish out the ice, et voila! , pure alcohol.

Please be warned...….

1) a glass bottle will probably crack as it freezes
2) you will almost certainly be happier just drinking the vodka without all the faffing about.

 

[Nigeyy]

Just some thoughts:

I believe the percentage of total infection is probably not going to change overall, but the rate of infection can be. Without any kind of intervention, infections will usually follow a logarithmic normal curve. To give an example, the UK has a population of 60 million. Assuming 30% or the population gets infected (some people are actually suggesting higher numbers), that means 18 million people will catch it.

But of that 18 million, it looks like only 10-20% may require serious hospitalization and care. Let's again take an extremely optimistic view of 10%, but that still means 1.8 million people requiring care. Now imagine all those people catch it in one day: it would be a disaster -imagine 1.8 million patients turning up, it would be untenable. However, if those people could catch it over a period of 6 months, that means about 9,900 people per day every day on average. That's still absolutely atrocious but definitely more manageable than all in one day.....

So slowing the growth rate is of paramount importance (i.e. "flattening the curve"). I don't think it can be stopped, but slowing it could be crucial.

 

[Stephenite]

In Norway...

... schools, kindergartens, and many businesses are closed for an initial two weeks. Provision is made for critical personnel to have their kids taken care of. Libraries, sports clubs, swimming pools closed. Events with more than 500 people banned - in practice any kind of meeting is cancelled. If possible, work from home. Maintain one metre distance from anyone else. Do not go to work if you exhibit cold and flu symptoms. Avoid rush hour. People are panic buying.

 

[Pale Rider]

Was he listening to the experts when he said that the travel ban would also include trade and cargo? The statement was later retracted.

He makes stuff up on the hoof and listens to experts that agree with him.

I recognise your constant desire to go against the majority view on this forum, but sometimes the majority are right.

Trump, like us, appears to have two lead experts.

However you cut it, both think the inbound travel ban is a good idea, coupled with other measures being taken internally.

I imagine they care about the 'majority view of this forum' as much as I do.

Other experts think the travel ban is not worth doing.

Which makes it another of several areas in which opinions, expert and non-expert, differ on how best to combat the virus.

 

[the snail]

And take down most of the worlds economy with them.

"most expensive speech in history"

View: https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1238137215445852160?s=20

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Both are true but for that 5% for whom it is serious it’s a lot when you take it as a percentage of 70,000,000 people. Roughly 350,000 in serious life threatening condition. Our intensive care can not cope with that number at once. Hence delay as in flatten the peak and stretch it out. Otherwise hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t even assess people let alone put them on oxygen etc. They would have to decide who gets help (who has the best chance of survival given resources) and who is left to die (or recover by themselves). It will be like war zone triage.

Sorry, 5% of 70,000,000 is not 350,000. 5% is 3,500,000.

Irrespective whether 40%, 50% or 80% of these guinea pigs for this "herd immunity" experiment catching the virus, or whether the "peak" is spread over 4 weeks or 4 months, nearly all these "5%" serious cases will die, because hardly any of them will ever get to be anywhere near an ICU. The following explains why.

If only 50% of the 3,500,000 so 1,750,000 need to stay in an ICU for say 10 days each, evening out equally over 4 months they would need 146,000 ICU beds. There are however only 3,700* ICU beds in UK, normally 80% occupied, i.e. under 700 free at any time. Even if everybody else was kicked out, 3,700 is c2.5% of 146,000. So 2.5% is their max chance of ever getting to meet an ICU bed.

That is without considering assisted ventilation. Experience in China and Italy indicates that since pneumonia is the main killer, mechanical ventilation equipment, preferably ECMO machines to allow damaged lungs to recover, are important lifesavers. We have 15 beds with such, good for 28 patients*.

Regarding herd immunity, you can read about it here, none of the experts considers it worthwhile for COVID-19, because huge number will have to die before we get that as demonstrated above.

Perhaps the Government is waiting for the seriously ill to more or less fill the 700 beds. To hit that they will have to implement social distancing in about a week, because the number will continue to climb exponentially for a period after. The difference between that and implement now? A couple of hundred more will die. Presumably someone somewhere decided that price is worth paying to delay for a week - I can't see why, given late in also means late out.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Just some thoughts:

I believe the percentage of total infection is probably not going to change overall, but the rate of infection can be. Without any kind of intervention, infections will usually follow a logarithmic normal curve. To give an example, the UK has a population of 60 million. Assuming 30% or the population gets infected (some people are actually suggesting higher numbers), that means 18 million people will catch it.

But of that 18 million, it looks like only 10-20% may require serious hospitalization and care. Let's again take an extremely optimistic view of 10%, but that still means 1.8 million people requiring care. Now imagine all those people catch it in one day: it would be a disaster -imagine 1.8 million patients turning up, it would be untenable. However, if those people could catch it over a period of 6 months, that means about 9,900 people per day every day on average. That's still absolutely atrocious but definitely more manageable than all in one day.....

So slowing the growth rate is of paramount importance (i.e. "flattening the curve"). I don't think it can be stopped, but slowing it could be crucial.

Think if you consider how long each needing intensive care actually need to be cared for, 9,900 turning up each day won't be manageable.

But why do you think 30% of the population need to get infected, when only c100,000 of the 60,000,000 quarantined in Hubei got it (i.e. 0.17%), which represents 0.007% of China's population.

Have you seen Korea's curve below? They look like slowly and surely getting it under control too, probably landing at 10,000 out of a population of 51,000,000 eventually, i.e. 0.02%.

 

[Fab Foodie]

We were talking about this in the gym tonight. People seem to think that bleach burns the skin. It isn't caustic soda! I use household bleach quite a lot around my flat. Even 100% bleach hasn't done my skin any harm. Just keep it away from your eyes and mouth and it should be ok. I don't think a low amount like 3% will kill the virus or any germs.

From Wiki....


Disinfection Edit
See also: Hypochlorous acid

Sodium hypochlorite in solution exhibits broad spectrum anti-microbial activity and is widely used in healthcare facilities in a variety of settings.[37] It is usually diluted in water depending on its intended use. "Strong chlorine solution" is a 0.5% solution of hypochlorite (containing approximately 5000 ppm free chlorine) used for disinfecting areas contaminated with body fluids, including large blood spills (the area is first cleaned with detergent before being disinfected).[37][38] It may be made by diluting household bleach as appropriate (normally 1 part bleach to 9 parts water).[39] Such solutions have been demonstrated to inactivate both C. difficile[37] and HPV.[40] "Weak chlorine solution" is a 0.05% solution of hypochlorite used for washing hands, but is normally prepared with calcium hypochlorite granules.[38]

"Dakin's Solution" is a disinfectant solution containing low concentration of sodium hypochlorite and some boric acid or sodium bicarbonate to stabilize the pH. It has been found to be effective with NaOCl concentrations as low as 0.025%.[41]



So from that, your 30% solution is much too strong. For handwashing 1in 100 is recommended.
I also regularly use bleach (in industrial applications as well) and a 30% solution is seriously unpleasant and not to be recommended to anyone.

 

[slowmotion]

It looks like homebrew shops are going to be ransacked by mad bog roll hoarders.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

As it seems to abate in China, they’re sharing some of their medical capacity. A team of Chinese medical experts and 30 tons of equipment and supplies landed in Rome last night.

 

[tom73]

Serious thought here. I came home tonight to find my dog had been sick on the carpet. He's also been off his food all day. I heard it mentioned that cats and dogs can contract the virus.

For those who can't get their hands(excuse the pun)on hand gel,try mixing ordinary household bleach about 30% bleach 70% water in a bottle with a spray top.

Dog's can't get this unconfirmed report in china lead to this idea. it's not official and confirmed. Official advice say's dogs are ok. He's probably got a general bad stomach that dogs get from time to time. Make sure he's still drinking and try him on something gentle like a bit of cooked chicken and rice or pasta. If he gets worse phone the vet and get some advice. If he's ok today then don't worry too much.

 

[marinyork]

Lot of commentary about nursing homes today. I do think the over 70s not doing cruises sounds comical as advice. There needs to be more advice how to separate the elderly, which is what the uk government are wanting to do.