Coronavirus outbreak

[MrGrumpy]

2022 before the world is vaccinated ? Listening to the news today, this virus is endemic end off. So in reality the goal now must be to get a workable solution so we can go back to a new normal

 

[classic33]

2022 before the world is vaccinated ? Listening to the news today, this virus is endemic end off. So in reality the goal now must be to get a workable solution so we can go back to a new normal

I'd say that as soon as folk realise that things will not be the same as before, we have a chance.

Deny that things have changed, and it'll be awkward for us all.

 

[mjr]

DVLA 535 cases and still encouraging people with symptoms to go in! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-mass-covid-outbreak-at-top-government-agency

It is an Agency and not part of the DfT, so Minister Shapps should be able to survive by holding its chief exec accountable or replacing them, but these are strange times.

 

[tom73]

I'd say that as soon as folk realise that things will not be the same as before, we have a chance.

Deny that things have changed, and it'll be awkward for us all.

That‘s the big problem a good few pennies have to drop and quickly. The effects of this will not be fixed even when covid becomes something we live with in the same way as flu. We still have a long road yet and plugs need to pull now we can't afford any more “all over by Christmas“ moments. Or believing/promote health services once cases fall will be back to normal levels any time soon. The health cost of this will dwarf anything else most of which is unknown. This year will mostly give us time to take stock. The real work and life post covid is likely to really not to hit home till next year. Then some real questions and planning will need to begin. We also need to understand covid is a world wide issue and many parts of it will need help unless they too have vaccines we are never going to get control of this.
On thing is a given for the family and friends of over 97,000 and counting life will never be the same.

 

[mjr]

That‘s the big problem a good few pennies have to drop and quickly. The effects of this will not be fixed even when covid becomes something we live with in the same way as flu. We still have a long road yet and plugs need to pull now we can't afford any more “all over by Christmas“ moments. Or believing/promote health services once cases fall will be back to normal levels any time soon.

Credit to Hancock this morning. On a not-as-annoying-as-usual video interview with Marr today, he stuck to the above line. I do wonder how long he can stick to that line before Number 10 press office orders him to stop upsetting people.

And we finally got a view of his office that makes it look less like he is in a downstairs loo!

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday

 

[mjr]

So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday

Only the published headline count. The real figure is probably already more. Still a headstone milestone

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

So we're likely to see deaths top 100,000 on Monday or Tuesday

I doubt it will be Monday; the figures will still be down from poor weekend reporting.

 

[mjr]

Canadian trial finds a cheap gout drug cuts death and hospitalisation risks by 21% https://www.icm-mhi.org/en/pressroom/news/colchicine-reduces-risk-covid-19-related-complications

 

[DaveReading]

CEBM - Deaths per week, by date of registration
Can see the effect (on registration) of the key public holidays every year (NY, Easter (varying and not in 2020), late May, late Aug, Christmas)
I think (but I don't know) that these data are from the ONS data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
which also offers data (2020 COVID-19 deaths daily registered) to inform the previous graph I shared.
View attachment 570326
Irene M. Stratton MSc FFPH
Senior Statistician
Gloucestershire Retinal Research Group

Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ?

 

[Rocky]

Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ? View attachment 570393

I agree with you. I see this as massive naivety or a deliberate attempt to mislead by claiming apart from a few outliers, things are within normal limits. What this omits is that lockdown has a major impact on deaths (causing some and preventing many more) and the outliers account for 40,000 excess deaths, making such comparisons invalid. Things are not within normal limits - just look at what is happening round the country with overflowing mortuaries and ICU units. As soon as policy makers are seduced by this sophistry and social distancing measures are relaxed, we get a huge spike in deaths.

 

[Pale Rider]

Do you get to be a Senior Statistician by believing that presenting a timeseries in the form of a polar plot is somehow a good idea ?

No, but you get some brownie points for knowing it's called a polar plot.

 

[midlife]

Going way back to my student days, didn't Florence Nightingale use polar plots to look at soldiers deaths? Or was she looking at something different. Not a statistician just curious.

 

[matticus]

There is a natural annual cycle to deaths, so it makes some sense to me.

 

[tom73]

I agree with you. I see this as massive naivety or a deliberate attempt to mislead by claiming apart from a few outliers, things are within normal limits. What this omits is that lockdown has a major impact on deaths (causing some and preventing many more) and the outliers account for 40,000 excess deaths, making such comparisons invalid. Things are not within normal limits - just look at what is happening round the country with overflowing mortuaries and ICU units. As soon as policy makers are seduced by this sophistry and social distancing measures are relaxed, we get a huge spike in deaths.

Seduced and not just from a distance as we now know.The no to the "circuit break" looks to have been made on the back of meeting them.