Coronavirus outbreak

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nickyboy

Norven Mankey
I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?
Sorry, to clarify this was not Lateral Flow testing. Hence the need to isolate until the results are given. That's what my friend's son is doing now. Lateral Flow isn't accurate enough to risk Granny on Xmas Day anyway
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published.

Estimated increase in R from new variant 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation.

Terrible case numbers today too, 35,000

It's doubling every 6 days under tier 3. That's ~100x increase by end Jan. I think we're now into "full national lock down until vulnerable are vaccinated" territory, unless those estimates are significantly out.

Explains John Edmunds's comments yesterday, because he was at the meeting!

Interesting the trio yesterday used the minumum estimates on R and added spreadability as a percentage.

That report is far more forthright in it's language than Boris, Whitty, Valance and Hopkins suggested.
 

Bazzer

Setting the controls for the heart of the sun.
I'm not aware of any roll up testing for non-symptomatic folk here in Manchester - nic's only down the road from us. Maybe there is ?
One of my sister's children was sent home as part of his whole year being sent home because of a confirmed case in another class. He, along with his whole year, was told to isolate. This buggered up a planned meeting with the local health services about some serious problems he has had for some time and would have delayed matters beyond Christmas. Probably not within the rules about testing, but my nephew developed "a cough". Got a test and he was clear so the meeting went ahead.
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
A little detail starts to emerge. NERVTAG (science committee minutes) have been published.

Estimated increase in R from new variant 0.39-0.93. By comparison, closing all schools is estimated to reduce R by 0.4. I'm still sceptical it's really that bad, R estimates for this are very difficult, but that's really just personal speculation.

Terrible case numbers today too, 35,000

It's doubling every 6 days under tier 3. That's ~100x increase by end Jan. I think we're now into "full national lock down until vulnerable are vaccinated" territory, unless those estimates are significantly out.

Doubtless that won't be announced until Johnson has repeatedly promised not to, insulted anyone who suggests it and then waited until the absolute last moment.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1340667844741230594


Whitty made it clear that tier 3 was just about holding down hospital admissions but it won't hold up to large numbers of new variant cases.
He made the point when asked what people should do if they last night they packed a bag and looking to leave a now tier 4 area. He did not want people to travel and was more than clear about what was a stake. Given seen last night it's just a matter of time so nice to see the good old British common sense in action.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
According to PHE there is actually a lot of spare capacity knocking around (100,000-200,000 tests per day).

I have no idea why this is, but this is the official numbers.
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
According to PHE there is actually a lot of spare capacity knocking around (100,000-200,000 tests per day).

I have no idea why this is, but this is the official numbers.
Wonder how much of that is people who won't get tested as they can't afford to stay off work ?
The report into Liverpool mass test showed in poor areas only 8% came forward not surprising as it also pointed out in the same areas 80% who asked for the £500 got turned down.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
That 6 day doubling time I mentioned...

Recent London data


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1340702230962466817


*if* the new variant is what's driving this, we can be sure it's not confined to London, and should expect this to be repeated nationwide.

Action required, nationwide, now. I can see no rational reason only to act in London.

(I'm still a little sceptical about the significance of the new variant, but there are very few downsides of acting, and potentially catastrophic consequences of delay)
 
The plus side to all this is there will be a lot of people thanking the restrictions that they don’t have to be subjected to a Christmas dinner round such and such house and constant conversation about Government restrictions, what they did wrong, COVID graphs and charts and then the inevitable Brexit ‘Give me a benefit’ lecture..... some will think this is the best Christmas ever
 

Adam4868

Legendary Member
Poor old Nige.:laugh:
564255
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Hot off the press: my better half has just told me that the German government has banned flights from (but not to) the UK as of midnight tonight. This is to prevent the spread of the new strain. Several other European governments are doing the same.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Hot off the press: my better half has just told me that the German government has banned flights from (but not to) the UK as of midnight tonight. This is to prevent the spread of the new strain. Several other European governments are doing the same.
I'm surprised France hasn't anounced yet.

Oops, spoke too soon. They just did.
 
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