Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.

The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?

I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...

Yeah I wonder if checking your temperature in morning will be as normal as brushing your teeth

 

[MichaelO]

One theory doing the rounds is that the uk is taking a "herd approach"

The goal is that this rips through the country - and those that survive (mostly) will have immunity

The process is to manage \ limit the number of concurrent infections - so the NHS can cope with the 15-20% who require treatment.

Sorta makes sense - but a 56 year asthmatic living not far from Dudley - its a bit concerning !!!

That is a rumour based on Johnson's comments the other day. Check the facts - he didn't say that! https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

 

[Mugshot]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHewitt/status/1238011076773584897?s=20

 

[kingrollo]

That is a rumour based on Johnson's comments the other day. Check the facts - he didn't say that! https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

Brings me back to the point that I and others have made - What exactly are we doing right now to delay the spread ? - as far as I can see we are just telling people to wash there hands

 

[PK99]

Yeah this is what I read Milkfloat and others have been talking about.

The major flaw is in the second paragraph above. If and when we "let" it rip through the country, well over a million would have died in UK, as I explained previously. How on earth, as a leader of the country, do you explain your "result" to your countrymen and the world at large, when c3000 died in China with a population of 1.4 billions?

I am also aware of the argument that ok once it is controlled in one country, it can come back in waves. Indeed it can. For example, they identified 9 in Hongkong today, but 6 were everybody in a group who came back from holiday in Egypt (think about that - country is hardly ever mentioned regrading the virus), one other is a Cathay Pacific air hostess on their flight. What that means, is that foreign travels, between destination countries of questionable status, will never be the same again. The wider implication, is that the way people travel, work, conduct their daily business, monitoring their health etc. will all have to adapt and change until a vaccine is found and become widely available. The only alternative, since it would overwhelm ICU capacity, is 5% or more of the population dead. The choice is kind of simple...

I've just re-read the posts from @Milkfloat and you seem to misrepresent or misunderstand what he is saying.

Far from advocating "let it rip" he seems to support the delay and spread the peak approach being adopted. It is inevitable that there will be a UK epidemic, but the later that happens the better will be the preparations, and the lower the peak demand on medical services.

Remember China has done nothing therapeutic to attack the disease itself, all they have done is reduce the R0 factor (measure of how many each case further infects from over 3 to well below 1 by utterly draconian restrictions of movement and interaction of people.

"Let it rip" is incendiary language akin to scaremongering

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Brings me back to the point that I and others have made - What exactly are we doing right now to delay the spread ? - as far as I can see we are just telling people to wash there hands

Handwashing does, trivial as it sounds, have a major impact on delaying spread and minimising peak.

 

[glasgowcyclist]

"People in Scotland should prepare for major changes to their lives as the response to the coronavirus is stepped up"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341

Asked if people in Scotland are going to have to prepare for major changes to their lives in the coming days, Mr Jack answered: "Yes, I'm afraid they are."

The rest of my family is already working from home but that's not feasible for me. Won't matter much really as I've got two weeks' leave coming this weekend so I'll be in the house. Got plenty of food, just need to get enough in for the cats for a few weeks.

 

[icowden]

Daily Express making things up, again.

It should always be remembered that the Daily Express has not been a newspaper since it was owned by Richard "Dirty Des" Desmond. The front page is entirely based on finding a headline that might make someone buy the paper. Bad weather is the default go to headline if there isn't a Royal story in the offing. It used to be Princess Diana but I think they have stopped those now.

 

[kingrollo]

Handwashing does, trivial as it sounds, have a major impact on delaying spread and minimising peak.

Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets

 

[MichaelO]

Ireland have shut all schools, cancelling public events and encourage WFH. UK has to follow suit, surely?!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets

It reduces transmission, doesn't stop it.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I like some butter in my mash, but there are classic French mashed potato recipes that have almost as much butter as potatoes.

The thinking may be that you only have a small portion.

Unlike me - I've been known to wolf down best part of half a kilo.

https://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/mashed-potatoes-kind-robuchon-style

The Statins thread is that way---------->

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

I've just re-read the posts from @Milkfloat and you seem to misrepresent or misunderstand what he is saying.

Far from advocating "let it rip" he seems to support the delay and spread the peak approach being adopted. It is inevitable that there will be a UK epidemic, but the later that happens the better will be the preparations, and the lower the peak demand on medical services.

Remember China has done nothing therapeutic to attack the disease itself, all they have done is reduce the R0 factor (measure of how many each case further infects from over 3 to well below 1 by utterly draconian restrictions of movement and interaction of people.

Don't think I did. See:

It has worked for now, but what happens when they relax their controls? They cannot stay hidden forever.

The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity or a vaccine is given to the whole world. Give it a few years and this will just be another strain of flu added to the yearly jab.

He was casting doubts on the control measures in the East, was he not? But It has not "worked for now" here - unless I am mistaken, few believe anymore our "waiting", to instigate social distancing e.g., is anything but squandering opportunity available.

"The only way this gets resolved is if enough people get infected and build immunity" - this is patently nonsense. This is what will kill over a million in UK.

You disagree?

 

[nickyboy]

Does it ? - Everyone I know is washing there hands like never before - but the cases are still going up - I am wondering if the transmission is more in airborne droplets

All the science backs up the assertion that washing your hands often is the best thing to do

I do worry that people in the main don't realise how serious this is. I was in my local Tesco this morning. I wiped down the handle of the trolley with an alcohol wipe and used my knuckle to key in my PIN to pay. I was the only person I saw taking any mitigation steps.

 

[kingrollo]

"People in Scotland should prepare for major changes to their lives as the response to the coronavirus is stepped up"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341


The rest of my family is already working from home but that's not feasible for me. Won't matter much really as I've got two weeks' leave coming this weekend so I'll be in the house. Got plenty of food, just need to get enough in for the cats for a few weeks.

I think the most draconian it will get is that only food shops are open - restaurants, cafes etc , cinemas, football matches , will all be closed.

If you read the lockdown in Italy is close to what I have described above - thats quite a distance from the lockdown in wuhan where people are physically confined in doors and have been 6 weeks with food and essentials delivered to them.

I can see thermometers for Covid becoming what condoms were for Aids