Coronavirus outbreak

[Unkraut]

BBC reporting that Germany going into a hard lockdown from 16th December to 10th January.

The BBC article basically says it all. I've watched the news and discussions over the measures this evening. The general feeling is this is now more than overdue, but some other strategy will have to be thought of for long-term living with the virus into next year. A new app that tracks people's movements has been mooted, and data protection will for once have to give way. Can't keep having lockdowns. In Baden-Württemberg we have already got an night-time curfew. Amazingly peaceful!

I noticed Merkel specifically justified the lockdown to relieve the pressure on hospitals, which in some places are reaching capacity. If the interviews on the streets really were random, most of the population sees the need for this action and will comply with it.

Including closing schools early for Christmas which is what we should be doing.

There has been some resistance to closing schools, partly because it's not easy where both parent work to look after them at short notice, and you can't involve friends and relatives. They are often out by mid-afternoon. Other reasons include them getting together and dossing around in shopping malls etc., and having to use public transport to get to school - making social distancing harder. At least with the blighters in school this can be enforced!

 

[MntnMan62]

This is some of the insane shyte coming out of the US Republican Party, which is fully enabled by Trump. I'd like this guy to tell that to the families of the more than 1.6 million people who have died from Covid. Let him say that to their faces. He'd be bludgeoned to death in mere seconds. And I'd be cheering them on. Awe, heck. I'd be helping.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/bob-good-congressman-elect-pandemic-phony-trump-rally-041251561.html

 

[fossyant]

London's rates seem to be through the roof - way higher than when other areas were put into higher restrictions. I personally can't see GM coming out of Tier 3 even though many areas are near or below 100 per 100k, but I've booked a meal out on the 21st just in case.

 

[mjr]

A new app that tracks people's movements has been mooted, and data protection will for once have to give way. Can't keep having lockdowns.

Maybe not, but how would spyware help? CoronaWarn isn't working, NHS Covid-19 isn't working, even the more authoritarian states haven't made apps have a significant effect. Then in more open societies like here, governments aren't going to rush to shaft the generally-older population who don't have the latest smartphones, especially countries with governments whose voters are that generally-older population.

Another farking app sounds like politicians clutching at straws and saying shoot that journalists won't question too hard.

 

[Unkraut]

CoronaWarn isn't working, NHS Covid-19 isn't working, even the more authoritarian states haven't made apps have a significant effect.

The reasoning behind this is that if you can reduce the infection level to below 50 per 100 000 of the population per day it is possible to track where the infection occurred and warn others they may be infected and should quarantine. Some Asian countries have managed this with the help of tracking apps, having at least temporarily put health above data protection. The current app here doesn't do this, significantly reducing its effectiveness. The health people are completely overwhelmed with the infection rate at present, no chance of warning anyone for days, if at all.

Once you can track you can restore many of the freedoms that are going to suspended until at least 10th January. This will help the economy, and be useful whilst waiting for the results of vaccination to kick in, sometime towards the end of next year. So current thinking, anyway.

 

[mjr]

Some Asian countries have managed this with the help of tracking apps, having at least temporarily put health above data protection.

Who has? I know of some like Taiwan that have tracked phones to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival, but I am pretty sure that has been from cell and wifi connection tracking, not an app that a smart programmer could pervert.

In other words, they may have put health above privacy, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.

Once you can track you can restore many of the freedoms that are going to suspended until at least 10th January.

How? Even the most invasive tracking will only alert police after people have farked up - and doing it on an app just seems like it's going to lead to massive adoption of burner and pool phones even if it can't be cracked.

If a country is willing to go really authoritarian, there are far cheaper ways to cut infections than developing another easily-undermined app. For example, ID logs on entry/exit to various places and limits on times and repeat visits, which could stop the "shopping as a frequent all-day family trip" nonsense and limit the exposures from restaurant dining; or using existing Auto Number Plate Reader tracking and thermal-imaging drones to try to spot frequent illegal gatherings in private homes.

 

[classic33]

Who has? I know of some like Taiwan that have tracked phones to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival, but I am pretty sure that has been from cell and wifi connection tracking, not an app that a smart programmer could pervert.

In other words, they may have put health above privacy, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.


How? Even the most invasive tracking will only alert police after people have farked up - and doing it on an app just seems like it's going to lead to massive adoption of burner and pool phones even if it can't be cracked.

If a country is willing to go really authoritarian, there are far cheaper ways to cut infections than developing another easily-undermined app. For example, ID logs on entry/exit to various places and limits on times and repeat visits, which could stop the "shopping as a frequent all-day family trip" nonsense and limit the exposures from restaurant dining; or using existing Auto Number Plate Reader tracking and thermal-imaging drones to try to spot frequent illegal gatherings in private homes.

I don't have a number plate fitted. And, if your house is well insulated, a thermal camera will show little.

There are also areas where a drone cannot be flown, resulting in a full size aircraft being used instead.

Use cash rather than a card to pay for anything*, limiting your withdrawals over a given period.

*Many places would only accept card payments earlier this year. Often only contactless at that.

 

[PK99]

Who has? I know of some like Taiwan that have tracked phones to ensure people stay in quarantine on arrival,
snip
In other words, they may have put health above privacy, but I don't remember seeing an app that helped.
sip
If a country is willing to go really authoritarian,

The countries with the greatest success in combatting Coronavirus

1. Are authoritarian societies

and/or

2 Had past experience of SARS and or MERS

 

[mjr]

The countries with the greatest success in combatting Coronavirus

1. Are authoritarian societies

and/or

2 Had past experience of SARS and or MERS

Definitely OR and probably 2 is a bigger factor than 1, but NZ had something like one SARS case and no MERS, so it's not an absolute rule.

 

[mjr]

I don't have a number plate fitted. And, if your house is well insulated, a thermal camera will show little.

We don't need to catch everyone to cause a reduction. Starting with those who are both stupid and careless would be good enough. I suspect both above measures or either of yours would catch more than 10x those of an app and actually prevent some infections too, unlike most suggested apps.

 

[PK99]

Definitely OR and probably 2 is a bigger factor than 1, but NZ had something like one SARS case and no MERS, so it's not an absolute rule.

NZ is a special case.

• Isolated landmass 1000 miles from anywhere else
• A long history of biosecurity controls
• Well established and practiced Civil Defence systems with domestic stocks advice and state contingency stocks ref Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcanos, and Pandemics
• 24,000 per day peak tourist season international arrivals (cf Uk 10,000 per day from Spain alone in March)

 

[mjr]

NZ is a special case.

You can make that argument about anywhere! No two countries are exact clones. The interesting thing is to try to work out which factors explain the results and their relative importance. It's not as simple as saying authoritarians or SARS experience explains it all because it clearly doesn't.

 

[matticus]

No two countries are exact clones. The interesting thing is to try to work out which factors explain the results and their relative importance.

I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else.

Other countries without any of NZ attributes have also done very well eg Vietnam.

There's a huge spread in outcomes - see attached for good, bad and indifferent across Europe for comparison

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

 

[vickster]

Other countries without any of NZ attributes have also done very well eg Vietnam.

There's a huge spread in outcomes - see attached for good, bad and indifferent across Europe for comparison

Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?