Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?

There are all sorts of reasons. I don't claim to have a silver bullet for the reasons.

But many countries have done very well, mostly but not exclusively in SE Asia. We should learn from them, I think.

I could have highlighted Finland, South Korea, Taiwan etc etc.

 

[PK99]

Vietnam a communist country, authoritarian regime, might have had an impact?

from BBC report:


While Vietnam never had a total national lockdown, it swooped in on emerging clusters.

In February after a handful of cases in Son Loi, north of Hanoi, more than 10,000 people living in the surrounding area were sealed off. The same would happen to 11,000 people in the Ha Loi commune near the capital, and to the staff and patients of a hospital.

No-one would be allowed in or out until two weeks had passed with no confirmed cases.

EDIT

more from the same report

Enforcing social distancing and quarantine relied on its entrenched system of "loyal neighbourhood party cadres spying on area residents and reporting to superiors", says Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch,

There were undoubtedly "rights-violating excesses" in the process, he told the BBC.

"But not many people will hear about those episodes because of the government's total control of the media," he adds, citing cases of people being fined or prosecuted for criticising the government response.

 

[tom73]

Don't like what your own government advisers tell just phone up others who are happy to tell you what you want to hear.Why the fire break never happened and just who's advice did they use to justify ?
This has cost 1000's more lives in the process and failed to protect the economy they only thing they really care about.
https://archive.vn/UWnAm#selection-909.27-909.34

 

[tom73]

London's rates seem to be through the roof - way higher than when other areas were put into higher restrictions. I personally can't see GM coming out of Tier 3 even though many areas are near or below 100 per 100k, but I've booked a meal out on the 21st just in case.

London moving to tier 3 from Wednesday. Come review day some others probably will be moving up too as for moving down can't see that happening. Even in some areas with failing case numbers hospital admissions are still too high. At least that what I hope if they do pick the pre Christmas economy at all cost. Than January is going even more of mess and even more are going to here to see it

 

[Rocky]

Don't like what your own government advisers tell just phone up others who are happy to tell you what you want to hear.Why the fire break never happened and just who's advice did they use to justify ?
This has cost 1000's more lives in the process and failed to protect the economy they only thing they really care about.
https://archive.vn/UWnAm#selection-909.27-909.34

Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.

 

[tom73]

Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.

Yes it’s not much off for sure add in extra avoidable treatment delays which is still to be truly worked out yet.Your sadly talking of even more lies lost or affected long term leading to shorter life than you thought.
Every time they mess up it just adds to the public health mess the effects of which will bite back for years.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Just doing a little maths here..... according to the article, 1.3 million extra infections spread the country as a result. According to the ONS, the aged-standardised mortality rate for Covid in the UK is 12.6 per 100,000. Thus the extra deaths caused by this advice to delay a lockdown would be 164. It's not on the scale of Shipman but it's pretty close.

Something wrong there I think - the infection fatality rate is estimated at 1% ish for the UK. So 1.3 million infections = 13,000 deaths, which will vary enormously according to the age of those actually infected.

I can't quite see where you're getting the 12.6 per 100,000 from, but I suspect that's for the whole population rather than the infected part, ie 60 odd million rather than 1.3 million, so apply a factor of 50 or so.

Reference for IFR estimate https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-IFR/

 

[Rocky]

Something wrong there I think - the infection fatality rate is estimated at 1% ish for the UK. So 1.3 million infections = 13,000 deaths, which will vary enormously according to the age of those actually infected.

I can't quite see where you're getting the 12.6 per 100,000 from, but I suspect that's for the whole population rather than the infected part, ie 60 odd million rather than 1.3 million, so apply a factor of 50 or so.

Reference for IFR estimate https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-IFR/

I think you are right - I’m mixing up the whole population with the numbers infected, in which case it’s even more shocking, as you say.

 

[kingrollo]

So a new strain in london and the south then.
To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So a new strain in london and the south then.
To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"

Not any more or less worried than you were before.

There are many mutations.

There seems to be no evidence that this one is any more significant than any of the others, and its potential significance is being investigated in the same way as the others have been.

A cynic might wish to speculate why, in these circumstances, this one merited an announcement in Parliament. It's almost as though something eye catching would distract attention away from the tier changes themselves.

 

[tom73]

Not a lot it's common for this type of virus to change. It's been found quickly as it look's to be driving case rates but to what true effect won't be known until more works is done. PHE will be fully reporting on it in a few weeks.
As always Dr Shaib is able to explain it clearly and calmly.

View: https://twitter.com/doctorshaib/status/1338735662388944900?s=20

 

[tom73]

Not any more or less worried than you were before.

There are many mutations.

There seems to be no evidence that this one is any more significant than any of the others, and its potential significance is being investigated in the same way as the others have been.

A cynic might wish to speculate why, in these circumstances, this one merited an announcement in Parliament. It's almost as though something eye catching would distract attention away from the tier changes themselves.

Oh no never you mean "don't blame us blame covid it's now wearing a cunning disguise"

 

[DCLane]

So a new strain in london and the south then.
To quote the opening post in this thread "How worried should we be?"

Every time a virus moves host it'll mutate very slightly. It's a bigger mutation which causes a new strain. No different to seasonal flu, etc.

Vaccines are adjusted to take care of this once they know how to make the vaccine.

 

[matticus]

matticus said:
I think most people have realised that NZ's unusual circumstances have a much higher relative importance than almost everything else.



Other countries without any of NZ attributes have also done very well eg Vietnam.

There's a huge spread in outcomes - see attached for good, bad and indifferent across Europe for comparison

Yes I know!!! :-) Please refer back to where this started:
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6232535

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Meanwhile, neighbouring Greenwich has got into a battle with the Government. There's an extremely high infection rate in school-age children and with Christmas looming, Greenwich council leader asked schools to close early. This, of course, doesn't apply to academies and free schools, who must make their own decisions. Islington and Waltham Forest followed Greenwich's lead.

The government have reacted to this loss of one week's schooling at a time of spiralling infection by launching a legal action against Greenwich. Their guiding (or misguiding) principle is that schools must be kept open. And heading Greenwich off will discourage Islington and Waltham Forest.

While council leader Danny Thorpe has been rather clumsy in ordering the school closures, I do share his concern about keeping children i the educational petri dish before releasing them into all-age group family gatherings. The New Year consequences are likely to be murderous.