lane
Veteran
The point being made is that if a large part of the population had already had covid-19 then we would have already seen the deaths at that point. It is not possible for a large part of the population to have been exposed without the vulnerable fraction also being exposed.
Antibody testing in the US and the Netherlands indicates that only between 1 and 3% of the population are likely to have been exposed.
Yes all I have seen is ranges between 2 and 14% with questions being raised about methodology at the higher end or it being testing in significant hot-spots. Even if it is higher with more asymptomatic cases than we now seem to expect, it has all happened in the past few week not in December or January. I can't see more than 5% of people in the UK have been exposed which seems to tie in with what experts are suggesting.