Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Unkraut]

What if the Oxford Report is correct ... and the majority of us have already had it ..

That is unlikely in the extreme. The figure of how many in the general population have had the virus and recovered without significant symptoms is unknown, and can only be established by testing significant representative samples of the population to see if they have developed anti-bodies. I don't think any country has yet managed to do this, although it is in the offing.

The notion the virus has been around in the West for some months and many who thought they had seasonal snuffles have already had it seems to be a favourite with the Daily Wail constituency who are chafing at the bit that their liberty has been restricted by the government, and can't see beyond this to the necessity of protecting the vulnerable. There is a known percentage who require hospitalisation and intensive care, and these numbers are missing prior to February/March this year. Unless you think the "experts" who actually have to deal with this have got it wrong!

 

[fossyant]

Son is being an arse at the moment. Getting sick of his late night gaming, and just get abuse. Thinks he has a right to stay up to what ever time he wants as he pays a huge £100 a month rent. (I pay for his phone and AA membership). He's 19. Still kicking him out of bed to log into work. He's fine during the day, but evening and morning a right grumpy git (typical teen).

He thinks this is OK as we aren't working this week (leave for me and furlough for MrsF). Kicked off last night as I shut the internet off. Both teens being exceptionally lazy at present.

Off for a ride later after the pharmacy queue for my neighbour's prescription.

 

[lane]

That is unlikely in the extreme. The figure of how many in the general population have had the virus and recovered without significant symptoms is unknown, and can only be established by testing significant representative samples of the population to see if they have developed anti-bodies. I don't think any country has yet managed to do this, although it is in the offing.

The notion the virus has been around in the West for some months and many who thought they had seasonal snuffles have already had it seems to be a favourite with the Daily Wail constituency who are chafing at the bit that their liberty has been restricted by the government, and can't see beyond this to the necessity of protecting the vulnerable. There is a known percentage who require hospitalisation and intensive care, and these numbers are missing prior to February/March this year. Unless you think the "experts" who actually have to deal with this have got it wrong!

Unlikely in the extreme is understating it in my opinion. I can't understand how all these people had it in January with mild symptoms but on the other end of the curve we didn't have tens of thousands dead as we do now. I doubt much more than 5% of people will had it when this lockdown is over which is a scary thought.

 

[Landsurfer]

Try reading the Oxford Report ... there is a high level 6 page pressie available ..... "Experts" vs "Experts" .... was my point .... badly made obviously...

 

[alicat]

What if the Oxford Report is correct ... and the majority of us have already had it ...... we all know people who have self isolated and recovered from the symptoms .... all of my family have had the symptoms and recovered since the first of February .. many of our friends have as well ... why is God ... better known as Professor Neil Ferguson ... allowed to change his mind about the severity of the crisis on a daily basis .... with a track record of wildly inaccurate previous models (We should all be dead of CJD according to him) .
Well just lets sit back and see what happens eh !

Please don't use my quote to support your argument. I was merely giving some factual information as to what a vaccination is.

 

[Milzy]

Unlikely in the extreme is understating it in my opinion. I can't understand how all these people had it in January with mild symptoms but on the other end of the curve we didn't have tens of thousands dead as we do now. I doubt much more than 5% of people will had it when this lockdown is over which is a scary thought.

Thinking the same myself. I'm not going to go all conspiracy theory and all that bollocks but it's weird how this virus effects people in different ways. If it wasn't for the lock down there would certainly be many more deaths. The rednecks in the USA are saying they should just let it spread and kill who it wants to kill. Now that's more scary.

 

[lane]

Thinking the same myself. I'm not going to go all conspiracy theory and all that bollocks but it's weird how this virus effects people in different ways. If it wasn't for the lock down there would certainly be many more deaths. The rednecks in the USA are saying they should just let it spread and kill who it wants to kill. Now that's more scary.

Yes but they have the inalienable right to get the virus!!

 

[lane]

Try reading the Oxford Report ... there is a high level 6 page pressie available ..... "Experts" vs "Experts" .... was my point .... badly made obviously...

OK fair enough I have not actually read it, only reports of it which made no sense to me. I will read the 6 pages when I have time.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

What if the Oxford Report is correct ... and the majority of us have already had it ...

1. No "Oxford Report" ever claimed this. I suggest if you're going to make such a claim you link to the source.

2. If the report you refer to is this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1.full.pdf
then

(1) Note the explicit repudiation of the study as a direct prediction: a way of determining this fraction by measuring the proportion of the population already exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

(2) please explain how population death rates now already above 0.1% in both Lombardy and NYC are compatible with your claims.

The rest of your post is an excellent example of Brandolini's Law. As such I won't expend further energy on it.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/01/28/bullshit-asymmetry-principle/

 

[roubaixtuesday]

OK fair enough I have not actually read it, only reports of it which made no sense to me. I will read the 6 pages when I have time.

The report is an exercise in epidemiological modeling.

It explores what rates of infection are *possible* with data available *at that point*.

It does *not* predict that herd immunity had already been achieved, merely that it was *possible* given the data.

It states that testing is necessary to provide data to refine the model parameters.

Subsequent to the publication, death rates in NYC and Lombardy are sufficient already to absolutely rule out the upper end of infection rates @Landsurfer is entirely erroneously claiming the paper predicts.

 

[marinyork]

Subsequent to the publication, death rates in NYC and Lombardy are sufficient already to absolutely rule out the upper end of infection rates @Landsurfer is entirely erroneously claiming the paper predicts.

It's data in Veneto when compared with Lombardia that actually suggests that the scenarios with the highest percentages are very likely not ones that are reality.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

The rednecks in the USA are saying they should just let it spread and kill who it wants to kill. Now that's more scary.

To be fair, that's been American policy since 1775.

 

[lane]

Son is being an arse at the moment. Getting sick of his late night gaming, and just get abuse. Thinks he has a right to stay up to what ever time he wants as he pays a huge £100 a month rent. (I pay for his phone and AA membership). He's 19. Still kicking him out of bed to log into work. He's fine during the day, but evening and morning a right grumpy git (typical teen).

He thinks this is OK as we aren't working this week (leave for me and furlough for MrsF). Kicked off last night as I shut the internet off. Both teens being exceptionally lazy at present.

Off for a ride later after the pharmacy queue for my neighbour's prescription.

It's probably hard on him as well at the moment. Being stuck in the house with your parents can't be much fun at 19. According to the news 16-24 age group are hardest hit by the lock down. Good luck. Hard when you are all stuck in the same house and can't get away from each other.

 

[Rezillo]

Oxford "study"

expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19

Says it all, really. The paper is a draft non-peer reviewed study and has not been well received.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/868F9FDD735B1EF62FE3B05616148F

 

[Milzy]

It's probably hard on him as well at the moment. Being stuck in the house with your parents can't be much fun at 19. According to the news 16-24 age group are hardest hit by the lock down. Good luck. Hard when you are all stuck in the same house and can't get away from each other.

His late night gaming will be good for his mental health. It's a fun outlet to stave off depression. I used to go out drinking until 2am at 19 then be in work before 8 so it's a bit lazy not getting out of bed mind.