Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Andy in Germany]

I saw an article in The Telegraph that said in order to get herd immunity the UK has to vaccinate 70% of the country. At a million a week that would take to November, what with new improved strain. Does that mean we have to stay locked down until November, because I don't want to. If the government just inoculates the most at risk 10%, can't they just let the rest of us go?

Which is fine unless you're just on the "safe" side of the "at risk" line: I'm young enough to be considered a lower risk, so my vaccination will be a bit slower, but my job and underlying Asthma mean I'm at a higher risk than may otherwise be supposed.

 

[vickster]

If you look at hospital admission data by age groupings, it looks like the over-85s outnumber the total of ALL other age groupings combined.
So those over-85s are definitely among the low-hanging fruit in the vaccination battle.

Unfortuantely that's 12 million people, so even at 1 million per week it's still the best part of 3 months to vaccinate them. But that suggests things should be looking better by Easter time, approx. How the 2nd dose argument will affect this is anyones guess!

However, the infection rates are driven by the activities of younger age groupings, so I imagine we'll see infection rates remaining high for many months, only dropping with the better weather, and then returning with autumnal weather later in the year.

Air travel will surely remain heavily supressed, and I should think a vaccination certificate will be needed.
More variants will emerge. Maybe this is a battle we'll have to fight again every couple of years.

12m people over 85 from a population of 67m...are you sure?! 1 in 6 of the population?

statista suggests 1.2 million might be more like it!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

 

[srw]

12m people over 85 from a population of 67m...are you sure?! 1 in 6 of the population?

It's 12m over-65s. All of whom are intrinsically at high risk of hospital admission and death if they catch Covid.

 

[vickster]

It's 12m over-65s. All of whom are intrinsically at high risk of hospital admission and death if they catch Covid.

That seems more likely. The post I quoted says over 85s though hence my confusion!

 

[lazybloke]

That seems more likely. The post I quoted says over 85s though hence my confusion!

Whoops - must remember to engage brain before quoting stats.
Still that's better news for those who are eagerly awaiting relaxation of current restrictions.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Whoops - must remember to engage brain before quoting stats.
Still that's better news for those who are eagerly awaiting relaxation of current restrictions.

It is if you assume that only over 65's are at risk, as I said above.

 

[Unkraut]

I saw an article in The Telegraph ...

I think it would be more honest, if not altogether welcome, for politicians and the medical expertise they ought to be listening to to say that the restrictions we are all fed up with will to some extent still be necessary for the rest of this year and possibly into the next. I can't see how it will be possible to vaccinate entire populations by summer, and it remains to be seen whether the vaccines being used prevent illness or prevent infection in the first place, i.e. mean you cannot pass on the virus if you come into contact with it.

Strict lockdowns are only necessary to get the infection rate down to a level where hospitals are not overwhelmed and tracking of the non-vaccinated population is possible. The more people refuse to obey the rules, the longer lockdowns will be necessary.

 

[Yellow Fang]

I think it would be more honest, if not altogether welcome, for politicians and the medical expertise they ought to be listening to to say that the restrictions we are all fed up with will to some extent still be necessary for the rest of this year and possibly into the next. I can't see how it will be possible to vaccinate entire populations by summer, and it remains to be seen whether the vaccines being used prevent illness or prevent infection in the first place, i.e. mean you cannot pass on the virus if you come into contact with it.

Strict lockdowns are only necessary to get the infection rate down to a level where hospitals are not overwhelmed and tracking of the non-vaccinated population is possible. The more people refuse to obey the rules, the longer lockdowns will be necessary.

What, the whole of 2021 and part of 2022?
I don't fancy staring at the four walls until then. As soon as the most vulnerable are inoculated, I want to be set free.

 

[C R]

What, the whole of 2021 and part of 2022?
I don't fancy staring at the four walls until then. As soon as the most vulnerable are inoculated, I want to be set free.

We all want that, it doesn't mean that it is feasible.

 

[Bazzer]

Heard in the last 48 hours of two deaths: a friend of the compliant next door neighbour and a friend of my son in law's parents. The latter was a taxi driver in his mid 40s.
Also Mrs B's church minister and her husband have now tested positive.
Mrs B and daughter 2 off to hospital tomorrow for more Covid tests and assuming negative, then they will be self isolating in anticipation of urgent surgery needed by daughter 2.

 

[winjim]

I'd be reporting them. The idiots have killed enough people I know. Personally I'd want a more severe punishment; 4 weeks in jail minimum rather than a paltry fine.

You can't lock people in a confined space for breaching rules that say you can't have people in a confined space. Jail is the last place we should be putting people.

 

[winjim]

Just dropped the 5yo off at the valley of death. I give it a week, a fortnight tops.

 

[Andy in Germany]

You can't lock people in a confined space for breaching rules that say you can't have people in a confined space. Jail is the last place we should be putting people.

Solitary confinement would seem a logical approach...

 

[DCLane]

Solitary confinement would seem a logical approach...

That was my thought - how about using all the vacant hotel rooms?

 

[Andy in Germany]

That was my thought - how about using all the vacant hotel rooms?

I'm not sure what the hotel industry would say about that: who pays for the disinfection afterwards?