Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[marinyork]

What your view be on this?

We have gone into tier 2. Yesterday my son who is 17 met his friends outside for a good part of the day. I asked him what he thought about this.

He said that one of his friend's parents had said he was still welcome in their house. They live about a mile away and are not in tier 2. I asked what he thought about that. He said on the one hand (1) I don't think the tier 2 was really for where we live (which is probably correct because our area borders both Nottingham (highest cases in the country) and Derby which is not in tier two and has quite low cases. We live right at the Derby side and right at the edge of the tier 2 area. (2) I sit next to my friend on the bus for 40 minutes twice a day and spend time with them at college as well - so I am spending a lot of time indoors with them anyway. On the other hand I was probably spending too much time indoors with other people anyway.

Myself on the one hand I think it we don't follow the rules what is the point and on the other I doubt it would make any difference if he went to see his friend in their house. So really not sure what to say to him.

The figures for most of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire are bad now, sadly. You hinted at this the other day. It's not at all a case of media circulating statements of Nottingham is the worst place in the country but only because we have a load of badly behaved students or somesuch phrase. The virus is rampant throughout the whole of Nottinghamshire and quite worrying big chunks of Derbyshire. More of Derbyshire will likely be tier 2 in the coming weeks.

Outside his risk of contacting the virus is 19x lower than indoors. If everyone was seeing people outdoors even for long periods of time but limiting it to 1-2 friends then things would be a lot better than they are now.

 

[lane]

Yeah I have seen Derby likely going into tier 2 within 10 days (although rates in Nottingham are massively higher than Derby) but weird when the area that he lives and socialises in, which is basically a school catchment area (his old one and my daughter's current one), is now split into two different tiers. Also if he is spending all day with someone anyway what difference will it really make? Thanks for the input though.

On the subject of students I am convinced that is where the problem originated even if it is no longer confined to them. It only started when they came back, was very much initially concentrated in student areas, and there have been 1,500 cases at one Uni and the other one won't disclose the number. When they came back initially there was photos of trams and stations packed out with students coming into the city for night out and that was reported to be for a solid four hours.

 

[All uphill]

What your view be on this?

We have gone into tier 2. Yesterday my son who is 17 met his friends outside for a good part of the day. I asked him what he thought about this.

He said that one of his friend's parents had said he was still welcome in their house. They live about a mile away and are not in tier 2. I asked what he thought about that. He said on the one hand (1) I don't think the tier 2 was really for where we live (which is probably correct because our area borders both Nottingham (highest cases in the country) and Derby which is not in tier two and has quite low cases. We live right at the Derby side and right at the edge of the tier 2 area. (2) I sit next to my friend on the bus for 40 minutes twice a day and spend time with them at college as well - so I am spending a lot of time indoors with them anyway. On the other hand I was probably spending too much time indoors with other people anyway.

Myself on the one hand I think it we don't follow the rules what is the point and on the other I doubt it would make any difference if he went to see his friend in their house. So really not sure what to say to him.

Interesting.

It's great that you and your son are discussing this. 👍

I'd say that we should all obey the rules as we understand them, but recognise that any set of rules will create anomalies about which we can all argue endlessly.

I'd suggest you encourage him to think for himself about the risks and what he thinks he should do to be a good citizen during a pandemic, above and beyond the roolz.

 

[marinyork]

Yeah I have seen Derby likely going into tier 2 within 10 days (although rates in Nottingham are massively higher than Derby) but weird when the area that he lives and socialises in, which is basically a school catchment area (his old one and my daughter's current one), is now split into two different tiers. Also if he is spending all day with someone anyway what difference will it really make? Thanks for the input though.

It really depends how far away he is from the friend. This is something that varies. If someone is 30-50 cm away for many hours indoors or outdoors, it probably doesn't make much difference. If someone is mostly 1-2m away and sometimes mask and mostly outdoors that's quite a lot lower risk. Most people I see outdoors/indoors in inter household mixing are 30-70cm away from someone else. That's pretty much not bother type behaviours from a virus point of view.

Things reopened up early June. Last time in many countries it appears around 2 months of unhindered spread of the virus led to where we were (and other countries that got the virus later fared better if they implemented changes at the same time). I think July and August were fairly normal behaviour months. Three/four months instead of two.

 

[lane]

There is no social distancing at college or on the bus but masks are compulsory - think it's the same when he socialises inside. I will tell him to stick to the rules. He will spend more time with me probably put me at more risk. You can't win!

 

[raleighnut]

I've had to change my vote, Maz's Son has tested positive, luckily last week whilst coming back from town Maz was toying with the idea of going to see him but eventually couldn't be bothered getting off the bus.

 

[marinyork]

There is no social distancing at college or on the bus but masks are compulsory - think it's the same when he socialises inside. I will tell him to stick to the rules. He will spend more time with me probably put me at more risk. You can't win!

There's no social distancing anywhere in society except offices and outside pubs.

As you are somewhere with a high number of cases I would try and encourage your son not to see things as a last gasp before tighter measures, but something to take advantage of where careful behaviour can likely mean people stay safe.

Risk within households varies. I've noticed the last 8 months how super close most families get to each other. So it's difficult, just got to be sensible and cross our fingers, hunker down for winter and try and look out for each other.

 

[lane]

Think we are at 290 per 100,000 whereas Nottingham is over 900. Problem is it's spreading out of Nottingham to surrounding areas.

 

[Unkraut]

And that Covid means sick then recover, not long covid or curtains.

Since our son started the long covid journey I'm seeing every day I have in good health as a bonus to be enjoyed.

I hope he makes a complete recovery. I am aware that even in younger people the virus can do damage, it's not just the very old. A Liberal MP here caught the virus at 48, thought she was likely to die and said her goodbyes, did in fact recover but weeks later still gets out of breath going up steps and can no longer sing. Whether this will remain so time will tell.

That said, I'm starting to wonder if there is too much panic being spread by government overreaction to the spread. It's not possible to stop it, shouldn't the measures be targeted at the most vulnerable? For example, from today pupils in schools will have to wear a mask all day, but this demographic is not driving the spread and is not likely to suffer from the virus if they get it. Is this really necessary? Is this going to do long-term damage to development and well-being?

I think it right to question this, but I have not joined the anti-vaxers or loony conspiracy theorists.

 

[srw]

this demographic is not driving the spread

It is in the UK.

The second wave started in young adults, including school children, and is now powering up the age brackets.

 

[kingrollo]

Welsh 17 day lockdown announced.

 

[lazybloke]

It is in the UK.

The second wave started in young adults, including school children, and is now powering up the age brackets.

Yes, the last stats i saw (sometime last week) showed that "Education" was the largest source of infections. I didn't see a further breakdown, but the numbers in the media point firmly at Further Education as the largest single source.

Young adults are your nightmare asymptomatic superspreaders so there's a huge risk they will take the virus home with them at Christmas, especially after a December of parties/snogfest/shagfest.
Would it be better to enforce 2 weeks of self-isolation NOW, and then close all further education accommodation. Get the students home and move all courses online?

Christmsa is going to be a huge problem. People moving all over the country, family gatherings. Expect to see a large spike in the stats in January... or should there be a nationwide lockdown?

 

[lane]

Before the schools opened the Government said there was no evidence they spread the virus. This was based on research when the schools were closed to all but key workers and it was possible to maintain social distancing. Who would have thought that research would not read across to schools being fully opening with children cheek by jowl.

I saw some research that said closing pubs would reduce R by 0.2 and closing schools by 0.5.

Round here without doubt the universities have been the issue.

 

[lane]

Yes, the last stats i saw (sometime last week) showed that "Education" was the largest source of infections. I didn't see a further breakdown, but the numbers in the media point firmly at Further Education as the largest single source.

Young adults are your nightmare asymptomatic superspreaders so there's a huge risk they will take the virus home with them at Christmas, especially after a December of parties/snogfest/shagfest.
Would it be better to enforce 2 weeks of self-isolation NOW, and then close all further education accommodation. Get the students home and move all courses online?

Christmsa is going to be a huge problem. People moving all over the country, family gatherings. Expect to see a large spike in the stats in January... or should there be a nationwide lockdown?

There will be a nationwide lockdown - possibly in all but name - before Christmas.

 

[Unkraut]

It is in the UK.

The second wave started in young adults, including school children, and is now powering up the age brackets.

Not to get too side-tracked into this, but since the epidemic began the greatest number of infections here have been between 15 and 59 years old, weighted slightly to the higher end. The number of infections, those tested positive, doesn't tell you very much, what counts is how many become seriously ill, and the death rate of those with other conditions. I don't think anyone has actually died of covid-19 itself.

I did see the average age of those infected has come down, I believe to 39, whereas at the beginning it was considerably older.