Are we being forced to go electric?

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biggs682

biggs682

Itching to get back on my bike's
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Northamptonshire
SpokeyDokey said:
Toyota, solid state batteries by 2027.

How will this affect market share?
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I for one would trust Toyota's engineering skills more than some of the others
 
Pale Rider

Pale Rider

Legendary Member
SpokeyDokey said:
Toyota, solid state batteries by 2027.

How will this affect market share?
Click to expand...

Sounds good - if it happens.

Solid state batteries have greater energy density and take up less space, although they are said to be very expensive.

A solid state battery car would make existing EVs look out of date, so if Toyota can bring it to market at a reasonable price it ought to do well.
 
icowden

icowden

Veteran
Location
Surrey
Dadam said:
I think we should try not to conflate battery powered electrically driven vehicles with self-driving vehicles. The power source is independent of the control mechanism. I'm fully in favour of the former, despite being a petrolhead most of my life.
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That's true, but teaching an AI to use a petrol pump is pretty tricky.

Dadam said:
But having worked in software my whole career, the latter... just no! Just listing all the possible edge cases is nigh on impossible, never mind coding for them or even properly collating the training data. Training for pattern recognition and outputting plausible text, routing a customer's query to the right worklist or even producing artistic looking images is one thing. Instilling the level of judgement needed for autonomous vehicles outside a carefully controlled environment is an entirely different level of difficulty.
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It is - but that's why the tech is being AI driven. Tesla's have an AI built in - all their learning is via neural networks. The AI learns from all the Tesla drivers, all the things a tesla car can see and how a Tesla driver reacts to those things.
 
icowden

icowden

Veteran
Location
Surrey
Pale Rider said:
Solid state batteries have greater energy density and take up less space, although they are said to be very expensive.
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They are. Things that there aren't many of tend to start off expensive. Mass production and take up is what makes them cheaper.
Pale Rider said:
A solid state battery car would make existing EVs look out of date, so if Toyota can bring it to market at a reasonable price it ought to do well.
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It's a balancing act. Would you rather have a car that can go 700 miles and be refuelled in 10 mins but which is awful to drive and has no functionality or luxury, or would you prefer a car which is high tech, excellent to drive but has a shorter range and longer refuel time. It is also dependent on Toyota holding onto that position. There are many other companies looking to produce solid state batteries. It's the Betamax vs VHS things. There will be lots of competing battery types but only one will likely win.
 
Gillstay

Gillstay

Veteran
Gunk said:
As a lifelong Car and Motorcycle enthusiast it just leaves me completely cold, I’ve recently cancelled my subscription of Autocar as it is now just full of soulless electric cars.

I know it’s coming and because Oxford will be a ZEZ soon we will probably have to buy one, but I feel I’m losing my freedom of choice, I know it is a very selfish view and I should be ashamed, but cars and bikes have been a lifelong passion/obsession, and it just seems very sad to see it all going.
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I can understand all of that but feel my freedom of choice has already gone. Where are the sensible cars to buy. I would really like to see a car that can carry stuff, but is not an SUV. I don't need a top speed over 85, a lot of accelerations, I just want economy, comfort and reliability.
A low profile would be nice as well.
 
D

Dadam

Über Member
Location
SW Leeds
icowden said:
That's true, but teaching an AI to use a petrol pump is pretty tricky.
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I don't see the significance of this point. I'm just saying we should separate the discussions. They're different concepts that are only mashed together because of.
It would be quite easy to design a self service petrol pump that a car could "dock" with. But it's academic as there isn't any point in doing so.

icowden said:
It is - but that's why the tech is being AI driven. Tesla's have an AI built in - all their learning is via neural networks. The AI learns from all the Tesla drivers, all the things a tesla car can see and how a Tesla driver reacts to those things.
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Great but "AI" isn't magic. Neural networks are just algorithms trained by vast quantities of data, with feedback loops to adjust weightings.

I'm sure it ingests a lot of very valuable training data. But driving still isn't an activity I would trust the current generation of ML models to perform safely except in strictly controlled environments. Out on the open road anything can happen and it just doesn't have the judgement, nor will it for many years. Off the top of my head a sudden snowfall obscuring the road markings and the edge of the tarmac. A swarm of insects fooling the radar into thinking a human or large animal has run in front of the vehicle. There's too many scenarios
 
icowden

icowden

Veteran
Location
Surrey
Dadam said:
I don't see the significance of this point. I'm just saying we should separate the discussions. They're different concepts that are only mashed together because of.
It would be quite easy to design a self service petrol pump that a car could "dock" with. But it's academic as there isn't any point in doing so.
Click to expand...
Oh I see. Yes, I agree.
Dadam said:
Out on the open road anything can happen and it just doesn't have the judgement, nor will it for many years. Off the top of my head a sudden snowfall obscuring the road markings and the edge of the tarmac. A swarm of insects fooling the radar into thinking a human or large animal has run in front of the vehicle. There's too many scenarios
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To be honest that's one reason that I'm surprised that Musk abandoned Lidar. Lidar can see things that a visual camera can't, and vice versa. A system using both is going to be superior to a system using one or the other. If the lidar sees a swarm of insects the AI can verify on camera whether it can actually see a human or elephant. Lidar is not great in fog, rain or snow, but radar is. I suspect that for true autonomous Lidar, Radar and camera need to work together.
 
classic33

classic33

Leg End Member
icowden said:
Driverless isn't just Musk though. Tesla appear to be actually falling behind in that sector.

I'm not in a rural area. I'm in a semi-rural suburban area. That's how bad our public transport is.


You mean these solar roof tiles from Tesla available in the US?:-
https://www.tesla.com/solarroof
https://www.inverse.com/innovation/tesla-solar-roof-one-year

Also in the UK we are fine according to the people who make the electricity:-
https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/electric-vehicles-myths-misconceptions
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National Grid only distribute the electric, not make it.
 
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