How strong is that correlation really though? It seems strong, in the way this is reported. Does it mean anything significant for women's behaviour around tipper trucks, and tipper truck drivers' behaviour around female cyclists? Or is it really just a not-meaningful statistical blip?
Querying the 2015 database, three women cyclists were killed in collisions in London with vehicle type 20 "Goods over 3.5t. and under 7.5t" and three by vehicle type 21 "Goods 7.5 tonnes mgw and over". The three men cyclists were killed in collisions with type 20, type 9 "Car" and type 1 "Pedal cycle", one each.
("select Accident_Index,Vehicle_Type from Vehicles where Accident_Index in (select Accident_Index from Casualties where Casualty_Type = 1 and Sex_of_Casualty = 2 and Casualty_Severity = 1) and Accident_Index in (select Accident_Index from Accidents where Police_Force in (1,48));")
Is this a statistical blip? Hard to say for 2015 London fatalities alone because the numbers are so small. If we assume that it's basically random what the outcome is (big assumption) and look at all reported casualties (so drop the Casualty_Severity constraint) and group by vehicle type, we see this:
- 1 Pedal cycles: 1012
- 2 Motorcycle 50cc and under: 4
- 3 Motorcycle 125cc and under: 27
- 4 Motorcycle over 125cc and up to 500cc: 4
- 5 Motorcycle over 500cc: 9
- 8 Taxi/Private hire car: 85
- 9 Car: 648
- 10 Minibus (8 - 16 passenger seats): 2
- 11 Bus or coach (17 or more pass seats): 18 (2%)
- 19 Van / Goods 3.5 tonnes mgw or under: 104 (10%)
- 20 Goods over 3.5t. and under 7.5t: 21 (2%)
- 21 Goods 7.5 tonnes mgw and over: 27 (3%)
- 90 Other vehicle: 1
- (Total collisions: 992 )
Similar for male cyclists:
- 1 Pedal cycles: 3507
- 2 Motorcycle 50cc and under: 9
- 3 Motorcycle 125cc and under: 52
- 4 Motorcycle over 125cc and up to 500cc: 10
- 5 Motorcycle over 500cc: 33
- 8 Taxi/Private hire car: 274
- 9 Car: 2453
- 10 Minibus (8 - 16 passenger seats): 4
- 11 Bus or coach (17 or more pass seats): 84 (2%)
- 19 Van / Goods 3.5 tonnes mgw or under: 329 (9%)
- 20 Goods over 3.5t. and under 7.5t: 40 (1%)
- 21 Goods 7.5 tonnes mgw and over: 39 (1%)
- 90 Other vehicle: 16
- 98 Goods vehicle - unknown weight: 3
- (Total collisions: 3485 )
I've gone back and added rough %s for the main large classes and it looks like they're within a few percent.
Well, as it's cheap now, repeating it for KSIs, it seems like 22 of the four main large classes are involved in 144 women cyclist KSI collisions (15%) but 62 in 613 for men (10%). So in crude terms it seems only slightly higher in all collisions, but well out of whack for KSIs.
(Edit: in other words, that previous big assumption may well be shoot.
)
On the supposition that there might (or might not) be some correlation between driver behaviour towards male and female cyclists - how easy is it to tell whether a cyclist you are approaching is male or female?
Womens bikes are pink, aren't they? (runs and hides)
The victims tend to be young, foreign women whom I, rightly or wrong, judge to be inexperienced.
Nationality isn't recorded, but age is, so here's London women cyclist KSIs (as that's the largest obvious subset where things go disproportionate IMO - see above) from the 2105 database:
- 11-15: 1
- 21-25: 7
- 26-35: 24
- 36-45: 17
- 46-55: 14
- 56-65: 5
- 66-75: 2
- Missing: 4
If anything (edit: based on what I remember about general UK demographics, London being skewed slightly younger than UK averages and cycling participation being roughly uniform except for the youngest and few oldest bands...), I'd say that young women are
underrepresented there. Older ones, too. Limiting it to those KSId in collisions with large vehicles (types 11,19,20,21):
- 11-15: 1
- 21-25: 3
- 26-35: 7
- 36-45: 3
- 46-55: 7
- 56-65: 1
So if anything, they're less young, aren't they?
Edited to add: limiting it to those killed in collisions with large vehicles:
- 26-35: 6
- 36-45: 1
- 46-55: 1
Well, that's surprising, but the numbers are getting rather small. Anyone got time to load in more years?
Right. I'm getting too close to these numbers and have finished my coffee! HTH BBL