Hard to second-guess the fallout of such an unprecidented and all-consuming pandemic. What does seem pretty obvious is that we as a race enter this situation from an already precarious position of existing environmental decline, economic fragility, social unrest and political turmoil; the virus will only serve to exacerbate these issues greatly and accelerate the collapse.
In terms of the the virus itself, it appears widely accepted that we're not just going to beat it into submission and it'll go away. Until it's worked its way through the population and most have developed immunity, it's going to be a constant battle to attenuate its spread to reduce peak loading on the health service; this will go on for months or maybe even years with the only possible alternative to riding it out being the perfection of a vaccine.
There have been reports of people becoming re-infected, while there's always the potential for the virus to mutate and become even more contageous or lethal; it's possible that this is going to be here to stay and a blight on humanity for the rest of its existance.
I think we'll see an increase in mortality / further decrease in life expectency that disproportionately affects the eldery due to the direct effects of the virus and knock-on effect of greater demands on the NHS.
The economy was already on its knees with many companies on the brink of collapse for years since the financial crisis and only kept on life support by cheap debt. We are (or hopefully were!) a consumptive society with an enormous service sector, little domestic manufacturing and a huge reliance on imports.
Those in direct, face-to-face service industries will be hit hardest first - hospitality is going to be utterly destroyed; again an area that's suffered massively already even a small blip (which this isn't) will destroy cashflow and be the end of many pubs, clubs, bars, restaurants and hotels; causing a raft of job losses. This will obviously also severely damage any other jobs that involve un-necessessarily being around a lot of people in an enclosed space.
Businesses that rely on "discretional spending" will be next in line; as unemployment rises consumer spending will crater leading to further closures and job losses in retail; especially bricks and mortar since the prospect of getting the virus from a face-to-face transaction will be just another reason to shop online.
Estate agents have been suffering through record-low transactions in the property market, thanks to the stagnation caused by the high house prices that are a direct result of the government's attempts to prop up the housing market (and with it the vested interests of themselves and their donors). Nobody's going to want to move house in this environment given the risk of contageon and massive financial uncertainty; so I think this is going to be the hay bail that breaks the back of many agents (I'll save my sympathy for the more worthy, thanks).
The economy will shrink enormously with huge job losses, in the absence of government intervention I think we'll see a significant house price correction as people hold off buying and more properties come to market through probate sales of elderly victims.
Just as in the 2007 financial crisis the government will bail out all their mates with taxpayer's money; borrowing heavily and printing money to channel more public money into private pockets. This will continue to devalue our currency; although of course since this is global and all relative other countries will be affected too so relatively speaking the effect shouldn't be as severe; although we're already on the back foot thanks to Brexit.
It remains to be seen how far the government can go with the "financial aid"; I expect a lot of short-term hardship because they won't be able to "save" everyone, plus a lot of long-term hardship in the name of paying it all off; long after the corporations have pocketed the bail outs and are once more making obscene profits and cash-rich insiders have taken the opportunity to hoover up cheap assets while everyone else is on their knees.
Interest rates will stay on the floor forever; necessary to allow the continuation of the spiralling amounts of public and private debt (which again, was already a massive problem before this happened). Debt across the board will rocket and the measures taken to make this sustainable will further decimate the savings of those who have been pragmatic / lucky in avoiding debt.
On the one hand we'll see a lot of currency deflation (inflation of the cost of necessities), on the other I also expect selective asset price deflation as the disposible income will no longer be present to buy non-essentials for pleasure or investment (other than for the rich, of course). We'll probably see appreciation of products that have greater practical worth; such as cars that are cheaper to run and items that allow you to self-sustain.
Politically the government will seize on this opportunity to serve their own agenda (as always), so we'll see dodgy laws passed in the name of "emergency measures" that will never go away, to the long-term detriment of civil rights and anyone who doesn't share the same interests as the goverment / their donors. Wealth inequality will continue to grow. Just as Brexit has been exploited, so Coronavirus will be used as a catch-all excuse to explain away all the fallout from decades of self-serving government policy.
In the short term we're definitely seeing environmental benefits and long may this continue; however, while in general this situation has got so much worse in the last few decades, there is zero political appetite for addressing this most grave of issues; indeed we might even see relaxation of laws designed to protect the environment in the name of the all-important economy
Socially, there have been concerns for years about the isolating effects of social media; now the need for people to physically distance themselves from one another is only going to make this so much worse; although on the plus side at least tech allows people to stay in contact remotely.
We'll see a rise in civil unrest and crime as tensions run high and the increasing number of people who are struggling turn to crime to keep themselves alive, while an already under-funded and largely impotent police force struggles to contain this issue; especially if more funding is being diverted away from them to pay for healthcare.
I'd like to think this is the wake-up call that we all need to see how close we've come to brink of existance; and as such cause a step-change in our immeasurably destructive habits. Unfortunately just like everything else the warnings have been out there for decades and nobody pays any attention; and while I don't expect things to ever be the same as they were pre-pandemic, I suspect just like every other crisis once the worst is over it'll be brushed under the carpet as if nothing has happened, with no appetite for future prevention or address of the issues that caused it in the first place.
To be honest I've not really considered how "lucky" I am in this situation compared to many others since my existing attitudes already suit this new world, while others will have to make massive changes. I largely enjoy solitary, often outdoor activities, buy things "for life" and attempt to maintain my own posessions rather than replace or pay for service (where possible). Thankfully I have some savings and my family home is of sufficient size that we have a fair amount of food stockpiled anyway so haven't suffered too much at the hands of the panic buying muppets.
For those less fortunate though (and there are many, thanks to the longstanding erosion of workers rights and job security, stagnation of wages, growing cost of living and general desolation of past decades) this is going to be utterly catastrophic
To be honest I've not really considered how "lucky" I am in this situation compared to many others since my existing attitudes already suit this new world, while others will have to make massive changes. I largely enjoy solitary, often outdoor activities, buy things "for life" and attempt to maintain my own posessions rather than replace or pay for service (where possible). Thankfully I have some savings and my family home is of sufficient size that we have a fair amount of food stockpiled anyway so haven't suffered too much at the hands of the panic buying muppets.
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