What happened to global warming then?

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VamP

Banned
Location
Cambs
So you make accusations and claims then can't back them up, imply greater knowledge but can't demonstrate it, and refuse to respond to refutations of your previous claims or to answer reasonable questions. It is interesting how in these circumstances riding your bike becomes something that beckons in a way that it apparently didn't before... enjoy the fresh air!

I have provided all the evidence needed, you have given no refutation of it. Don't think that you asked any questions either, reasonable or otherwise. Have my doubts that you actually read any of it.

As to the bike beckoning in ways it didn't before???? Again confused by your thought process, but I average 200 miles per week - and it always beckons :thumbsup:

The atmosphere in this corner of CC is somewhat stale, I don't think I will be wanting to spend time here. What's particularly frustrating is that we probably share a lot more common ground in our thoughts on climate change, than we differ on, but can't get around to articulating any of that because we seem stuck in some weird combative loop.

As to the other two 'commentators' out there - I have no appetite for their bizzarre form of 'debate'.
 
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User482

Guest
So, having demonstrated nothing but his own prejudice, he's now taking his ball home. I'm sure he'll be deeply missed.
 
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User482

Guest
Care to enlarge?
You made a wild claim. You haven't substantiated it. If you believe otherwise you're just seeing what you want to see.

It is of course possible that you have some great insight or crucial piece of information that you've not shared with us so far. Be my guest...
 

jonesy

Guru
Been hounded out with a perfectly reasonable opinion too:rolleyes:

Let's not have this ludicrous playing the victim card either. VamP made some quite specific, and very serious, allegations about someone and has entirely failed to back them up.
 

Linford

Guest
good post Jonesy, not often i agree with you.
not read all 8 pages so it might have been said already

if the temperature of the planet rises , the polar ice caps melt , the gulf stream slows/stops Britain will get a colder climate for a while rather than the temperate one we have now. then the once the cooling effects have been negated by the constant rise in heat we will start to get hotter and hotter.

i think that covers climate CHANGE .

I enjoyed that filum 'The Day after Tomorrow'. Totally put the fear of god into me of course like any good disater movie ;) . We did actually experience a shifting of the Gulf Stream a few years ago, It didn't cause a massive chill like in the film, but was cooler and we got a lot of rain (2007). The thing about this Gulf stream moving would mean that we would expect to experience winters like Canada or Germany which isn't really a biggie - we would adapt. There is an opinion on the last ice age being caused by global warming after the Hudson Bay ice dam melted, and desalinated a good dollop of the north Atlantic, and this subsequently increased the polar cap size and lowered global temps as a result.

I also recall reading somewhere that anthropogenic climate change started thousands of years ago. As long as we continue to multiply, the problem will never be reined in. We are doomed, and need to accept this.
 

VamP

Banned
Location
Cambs
You made a wild claim. You haven't substantiated it. If you believe otherwise you're just seeing what you want to see.

It is of course possible that you have some great insight or crucial piece of information that you've not shared with us so far. Be my guest...

You seem to be expecting a served up on a platter summary, confirming that Mann is discredited, perhaps in the form of neat bbc website pop-science wrapping. That is not going happen for a controversial area, where a clear-cut verdict is unavailable. The nature of science is thus.

In this instance you have the principal components:
  • MBH98
  • MM03 and 05 critiques of MBH98
  • Wegman Report
  • North Report
  • Transcripts of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearings
They are all easy to find, and I linked to some. If you are interested in the controversy, read and make your own mind up. I am assuming from the comments that you made about 'having no opinion on Mann' that you are actually not that interested.

I have further explained why it's important to go to the principal components in this instance, as secondary reporting in this case is skewed (by both sides), and information on RC and Wiki, as well as the denier sites, is skewed to reflect those site's political allegiance.

So far the only person to even attempt to look at the evidence was Yellow Fang, and he based his opinion mainly on Wiki summary. Be very clear, the attempts to discredit Wegman are as political as some of the attempts to discredit climate science, and none of the plagiarism allegations have stuck. They also apply to side issues to the statistical analysis - which of course is the crux of the matter.

I fully expect, if you do actually invest any time in this, that you will come back and say (like FM already has done) - well yeah, there are some problems with MBH98, but it doesn't matter, because the work he has done since then has been fine, and anyway there are lots of other studies that demonstrate the same thing.

The trouble with statements like that, is that they are buying into a group think mentality, where getting the 'right' result is more important than using 'correct' methods. I don't dispute the conclusions of MBH98, I dispute the methods. And in science the methods are all. In my humble opinion.

Given how important it is that we (as a race) adopt the right policy steps with regard to CO2 emission management, it is very shortsighted to pretend that shoddy (or deceitful) science doesn't matter, because it's all for the greater cause. Much better to be open, honest and transparent in our approach to the research. Which is why I admire Curry, and detest Mann.

Maybe, if you're unwilling or unable to debate the merits of MBH98, you could share some of your heroes and villains in climate science, and we coould debate those? Then we might be able to move on from this impasse, where everytime I say something, you retort that it is unconvincing, without giving any substance.
 

Flying_Monkey

Recyclist
Location
Odawa
The trouble with statements like that, is that they are buying into a group think mentality, where getting the 'right' result is more important than using 'correct' methods. I don't dispute the conclusions of MBH98, I dispute the methods. And in science the methods are all. In my humble opinion.

Indeed they are vital.

But you are just avoiding the issue. My observation was that studies post-Mann have shown the conclusions to be broadly correct. Do you dispute this?

You responded by ignoring this, and claiming my statement is evidence of 'group think' and saying that Mann's original paper was methodologically flawed. We all know it had flaws - I already said this. So what? Are you implying that all the studies since which do lead in the same direction are also methodologically flawed? All also just products of 'group think'? Every single one of them biased? If those are the implications of what you saying, they are pretty extraordinary claims, and require pretty some pretty extraordinary evidence to back them up (once again). If this is not what you are saying, perhaps you could clarify... or actually address my observation directly rather than dancing around it.

And BTW, please do people you are discussing things with the favour of not accusing them of 'group think' etc. It implies that the people you are arguing with are incapable of the same independence of judgment and knowledge of methods as you claim for yourself.

Maybe, if you're unwilling or unable to debate the merits of MBH98, you could share some of your heroes and villains in climate science, and we coould debate those? Then we might be able to move on from this impasse, where everytime I say something, you retort that it is unconvincing, without giving any substance.

This is exactly what we shouldn't do and contradicts your claim earlier that 'methods are all'. This is simply to abandon any pretense that we should be interested in the research and focus on personality as if it is some kind of valid substitute for the substantive.
 
U

User482

Guest
There are so many mistakes in your post, it's difficult to know where to start. You appear to be under the impression that people who disagree with you don't understand the issues as well as you do. This argument from authority would carry more weight if you'd given us an inkling of insight, or a reputable source that goes even halfway to supporting your claims.

I've read all of the information you provided. None of it in any way shows that Mann is a "liar and a cheat" as you claim.

1. Mann has been the subject of a comprehensive NRC investigation, which does not support your claims.
2. The Wegman report is not peer-reviewed, excludes peer-reviewed literature that specifically refutes McIntyre & McKitterick, and is still the subject of a plaigiarism investigation. I note that another of Wegman's papers has been retracted by the publisher because of plagiarism.

As I have already said, I think Mann could be more open, and it's widely acknowledged that there were some statistical problems with his earlier work, though these problems did not significantly affect his conclusions.

Why you are hanging everything on a discredited, plagiarised report is a mystery to me.

I started out by having no opinion on Mann. I've changed my mind: it's become clear to me that he's being hounded for purely political purposes.
 

jonesy

Guru
Indeed they are vital.
..
You responded by ignoring this, and claiming my statement is evidence of 'group think' and saying that Mann's original paper was methodologically flawed. We all know it had flaws - I already said this. So what? Are you implying that all the studies since which do lead in the same direction are also methodologically flawed? ...

It is also worth stressing that having a flawed methodology is not the same as lying and cheating.
 
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