Unreliable weather forecasts

[SpokeyDokey]

Most services are a waste of time especially in areas of complex terrain eg mountainous locations. Poor forecasting causes real problems for trades whose work is subject to the vagaries of the weather here in the Lake District. Farmers are particularly badly affected.

The only service I have used that is usually accurate is the MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) which is only of any use if you are wanting a forecast in the mountainous or hillier regions of England, Scotland & Wales:

http://www.mwis.org.uk/home

 

[Mr Celine]

The met office and the BBC like many public sector organisations behave in a way to minimise the number of complaints they receive. To this end there is little reward in providing accurate forecasts for remote areas rather than populated ones, despite the remote areas being where they are needed for work or safety reasons. If they get the forecast wrong for Surrey they'll get a lot more complaints than if they get it wrong for Caithness. It's also a lot easier to forecast the weather in the south east as it is furthest from the two things which make forecasting hard, ie the Atlantic Ocean and any proper hills.

 

[HLaB]

Met forecasters revised both Saturday and Sunday forecasts for here late the day before. When I looked at the weather forecast for Saturday on Friday morning it was to be torrential, then by Friday evening it was just occasional sun showers. This was closer to the mark but I'd say it was more sun than shower. All week Sunday however, was supposed to be the better day with light winds, until yesterday when they changed it to torrential which has unfortunately been spot on :-/

 

[Levo-Lon]

Sat in the George at Cley Norfolk.
Weather forecast is spot on.
Pizzing down

 

[Brandane]

My theory is that for all the satellites and modern computer generated forecasts, the accuracy has gone to pot BECAUSE......
When I was a boy (etc.. etc..) back in my Merchant Navy days in the late 70's; every British registered ship across the world, whilst at sea (rather than sitting in port) would send a detailed weather report (sent by morse code no less - ask your parents, children!) every 12 hours back to Portishead near Bristol. I remember having to report such details as wind speed/direction, cloud type and cover, rain intensity, air and sea temperature, sea state, size of swell, etc..
Then came the dismantling of the British Merchant Navy. If we were to rely on the current handful of British registered ships across the globe, we might get a rough idea of how the weather is between Dover and Calais; end of...... So we came to rely on the modern version, which is not up to the job.

 

[kevin_cambs_uk]

As soon as you get low pressure as the dominant weather feature they can predict jack shoot!

 

[Dave7]

Last week......due to play golf....BBC forcast was light rain from 1300. No problem I thought, I can handle light rain for the last hour.
1200 the heavens opened and it lashed down for 2 hours..... we were all soaked down to our undies... not nice.

 

[perplexed]

I think Sheffield is pretty tricky to predict the weather forecast for because of its proximity to the Pennines. The prevailing wind is west to east, which means it comes across the Pennines most of the time.

So, bluntly speaking, you've only got to be a bit out altitude and temperature-wise to get huge unpredictability over if it dumps its preverbial load over the hills or on the city.

 

[Slick]

One I used when flying RC models is https://www.xcweather.co.uk
Generally reliable and gives wind direction too. Based on weather stations across the UK.

I never use anything else, it's rarely wrong but you do have to keep an eye on it as it can change.

May give that a try.

The BBC is still saying light rain for where I am, xcweather is saying dry, which it is.

Hardly an exhaustive test, but xc is more accurate.

I think it can depend on where you live but I find it more accurate than most although I know not all agree.

 

[mjr]

The met office and the BBC like many public sector organisations behave in a way to minimise the number of complaints they receive. To this end there is little reward in providing accurate forecasts for remote areas rather than populated ones, despite the remote areas being where they are needed for work or safety reasons. If they get the forecast wrong for Surrey they'll get a lot more complaints than if they get it wrong for Caithness. It's also a lot easier to forecast the weather in the south east as it is furthest from the two things which make forecasting hard, ie the Atlantic Ocean and any proper hills.

Hah! They screw up for the fens far too often, which is far away from those things, but I guess it's a fairly remote area so not worth the effort. Even the nowcasting is wrong: when the TV says it's raining, I often look out the window at the sunshine!

Far better forecasts come from WeatherQuest who get paid by farmers and their elk subscribing.

But why cancel rides for anything other than high winds? If it rains, don waterproofs. If icy, use studded tyres. If hot and sunny, use sunblock and make more drink refill stops. We ain't fragile.

 

[ColinJ]

But why cancel rides for anything other than high winds? If it rains, don waterproofs.

Because some of us are doing rides with thousands of metres of climbing and descending, at gradients of up to 25%, on narrow, twisty roads with dodgy surfaces which are pretty iffy in very wet conditions?

And affordable waterproofs are incredibly boil-in-the-bag when working hard up steep climbs. I'm producing around 200 Watts when climbing and the human body is roughly 20-25% efficient so there is 600-800 Watts of heat to get rid of. Put it simply - I cook on the climbs but then when the effort is reduced I start to feel cold because I am drenched in sweat.

More importantly though - I just don't enjoy riding in bad weather!

 

[mjr]

Because some of us are doing rides with thousands of metres of climbing and descending, at gradients of up to 25%, on narrow, twisty roads with dodgy surfaces which are pretty iffy in very wet conditions?

Then amend the route rather than cancel IMO. I used to live at the foot of a set of north-facing 25% hairpins which used to force some such amendment by being closed above the second turn in the worst weather (but I voluntarily rerouted well before that ).

But I guess I ride to get places so maybe don't mind rerouting as much as those who ride for its own sake.

 

[Racing roadkill]

I’ve often got to rely on forecasts across three countys, over several hours. They nearly always screw it up.

 

[classic33]

Then amend the route rather than cancel IMO. I used to live at the foot of a set of north-facing 25% hairpins which used to force some such amendment by being closed above the second turn in the worst weather (but I voluntarily rerouted well before that ).

But I guess I ride to get places so maybe don't mind rerouting as much as those who ride for its own sake.

An easy local route

when compared to closer to the border. Waterproofs not worn for the same reasons given.

Edited to add,
Border is the Yorkshire - Lancashire border

 

[Vantage]

A "RideWithUs" 30 mile social ride was cancelled today by the powers that be due to severe weather warnings. I've been looking forward to it all month.
My dogs farts blow with more ferocity than the wind we had today.
Not a happy bunny