Tour de France 2013 *spoilers*

[smutchin]

Though, tbh, I can't really see beyond Contador for the top spot - I just think he'll be too good for Froome, in much the same way as he was at the Vuelta last year. It's not that Contador is necessarily a stronger rider but he's a cannier rider.

I may have to revise this opinion after the Dauphiné. He claims he's only at 75% at the moment but where on earth is he going to find the other 25% in the next three weeks? In a blood bag? In a steak?

Froome looks deadly right now.

 

[rich p]

I thought Stannard was immense in the Dauphiné. I can imagine him pulling on the front for hours on the flatter days.

 

[Pedrosanchezo]

Really wish Nibali was going to this race as he seems to be the only rider in similar form. As it stands Froome , barring injury, will wear yellow at the Champs elysees. Contador doesn't appear to have the comparable team mates nor the form Froome currently possesses.
Realistically who else is there?

 

[rich p]

So after the Dauphiné, Sky and the others will be finalizing their line-ups.
@thom and I were musing over this on another thread and basically agreed on the Dauphine team for Sky - plus Eisel and Knees and minus Kennaugh.
PK, though, had a great race and was dropping off the train up the hills just before Thomas whilst David Lopez had a stinker; dropping time every day and DNFing on the last day. He may have been ill but if not it must put a doubt against his name.

I've just this quote from Nicolas Portal..
“They all performed brilliantly today, even David [Lopez], who has been struggling with sickness. He deserves a mention because he showed his character today. He was taking clothing to and from the car, collecting bidons and riding hard before we instructed him to call it a day.” which explains Lopez's poor showing.

 

[Herzog]

Realistically who else is there?

An outside bet would be Talansky.... first TdF and with a Garmin team possibly weakened by the ill/concrete magnet that is Hesjedal. Top 10 in last years Vuelta and 2nd in Paris-Nice suggest he's coming along nicely. A good bet for the white jersey!

 

[smutchin]

Surely Dan Martin becomes team leader if/when Ryder pulls out?

The white jersey will be an interesting tussle - there are loads of possible strong contenders: Talansky, Tejay, Quintana, Pinot, Vichot, Kwiatowski... Personally, I'd go for Quintana above Talansky.

 

[Herzog]

Surely Dan Martin becomes team leader if/when Ryder pulls out?

The white jersey will be an interesting tussle - there are loads of possible strong contenders: Talansky, Tejay, Quintana, Pinot, Vichot, Kwiatowski... Personally, I'd go for Quintana above Talansky.

In theory yes, but the nervous first week can change everything.

 

[The Couch]

In theory yes, but the nervous first week can change everything.

And if last year has shown us anything, it is that Garmin has big difficulties avoiding crashes in the first week.
(The same applies to the Dutch/Blanco riders)

I had believed Dan Martin to be the best rider on the team anyway (even before all the Ryder troubles)... he should be able to go for a very good GC ranking.
Hesjedal should probably best focus on a stage victory.
Talansky surprised me last year during the Vuelta with some nice consistency, so I believe he should have a shot at the white jersey (but then again Quintana and Pinot are both looking very strong and will probably make it a 2-horse race)

 

[Pedrosanchezo]

An outside bet would be Talansky.... first TdF and with a Garmin team possibly weakened by the ill/concrete magnet that is Hesjedal. Top 10 in last years Vuelta and 2nd in Paris-Nice suggest he's coming along nicely. A good bet for the white jersey!

Yeh he looks good for the future. Many have though in the past and gone on to do zilcho. Gesink comes to mind.

I mean that there appears to be no competition for Froome. The two best riders just now might not meet all year at a Grand tour and that's just too easy.

I haven't written AC of yet but he's not the favourite we all thought he was. After him it's a poor list of contenders.

 

[Herzog]

I haven't written AC of yet but he's not the favourite we all thought he was. After him it's a poor list of contenders.

Don't worry Schleck will come good for the tour...cue tumbleweed.

 

[ColinJ]

Tony Martin has been complaining that the descent from Alpe d'Huez is very dangerous and should not have been included in the Tour. I didn't see it in the Dauphiné but he says that the road surface is old and battered, with some bends being unbarriered and a 30 metre drop off the side - link.

Some people are leaving comments arguing that the riders should simply ride within their capabilities, but accidents can always happen. It is one thing to risk road rash and broken collarbones but a 30 metre fall is quite likely going to kill!

If racing goes ahead on that descent then I hope that all the riders get down safely. If the peloton agree with Martin, then perhaps they will refuse to race down it and neutralise the stage until they pass that point?

 

[rich p]

Tony Martin has been complaining that the descent from Alpe d'Huez is very dangerous

If racing goes ahead on that descent then I hope that all the riders get down safely. If the peloton agree with Martin, then perhaps they will refuse to race down it and neutralise the stage until they pass that point?

http://www.cyclechat.net/threads/tdf-2013-route.111329/

It appears they didn't upgrade it!!!

 

[ColinJ]

http://www.cyclechat.net/threads/tdf-2013-route.111329/

It appears they didn't upgrade it!!!

Ah, I missed that - I searched this thread but not others!

I used to go on a 2 week road training camp every Spring on the Costa Blanca and I spotted a climb and descent that we never used. I asked one of the ride leaders why not and was told that it was too dangerous to take a group ride over. The descent was similar to the one off Alpe d'Huez. We had a 'rest day' halfway through the camp so I decided to go and check out this dodgy descent. Despite knowing what it was like, I overcooked it on one gravel-strewn bend and got a stomach-churning view of the drop beyond!

 

[thom]

http://www.cyclechat.net/threads/tdf-2013-route.111329/

It appears they didn't upgrade it!!!

Still time though. I think it is worth bearing in mind that it is raced on stage 18, well into the race so:
1) Riders will be tired - there will be a few in an escape and a few GC riders in the peloton watching each other - nobody else will be racing that hard
2) The 1st ascent of the Alpe will spread the field out so it won't be a descent crammed with riders
3) People will be saving their energies for the final ascent of the Alpe - I don't think many will think they can make decisive time on the dangerous upper part of the descent to make a difference. Sanchez & Valverde perhaps
4) They haven't used the corniche road above the Romanche valley, which is 10 times more precarious ! ;-)

 

[400bhp]

Surely Dan Martin becomes team leader if/when Ryder pulls out?

The white jersey will be an interesting tussle - there are loads of possible strong contenders: Talansky, Tejay, Quintana, Pinot, Vichot, Kwiatowski... Personally, I'd go for Quintana above Talansky.

^^this^^

He's 80:1. Gonna have a tenner each way bet. IMO Martin has been pencilled in as the Garmin leader for the Tour already.