The CycleChat Helmet Debate Thread

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Cobblers - please read below and then admit it :smile:

The rate is
..... blah blah blah
Sorry - you're playing statistical gobbledygook games with numbers. And they don't convince me.

By contrast (and I know it's been said before), this little exercise in real-life observation and measurement ---- "cyclists who wear protective helmets are more likely to be struck by passing vehicles".


Bottom line - I'm happy making my choice; I prefer not to wear a helmet -
a) because I value the extra 8.5 cm (3 1/3 inches) space;
b) because drivers are "as much as twice as likely to get particularly close to the bicycle when he was wearing the helmet."

Feel free to trust your number games. That is your choice. But it's not mine.
 

martint235

Dog on a bike
Location
Welling
I haven't misattributed anything to you. My text is in blue and yours is in black.

There isn't anything to debate. The stats say cyclists, over the same distance covered, are 2x more likely to have a serious injury than peds. Saying that peds "walks less distance than a typical cyclist - both because walking routes for typically-walked journeys are generally shorter than cycling routes..." doesn't change that. And as I say, the stats don't particularly support my own argument, cos the risks are so low. But the fact is, if the fall and bump your head then it is rather odd to think that a helmet makes no difference to outcome.

How come your argument doesn't apply to motorcyclists too?
Motorcycle helmets are tested and evidenced against real world scenarios. I believe that a cycling helmet makes no difference because there is nothing to show that it does. And given the price of some helmets, that is quite expensive snake oil being sold.
 

benb

Evidence based cyclist
Location
Epsom
But the fact is, if the fall and bump your head then it is rather odd to think that a helmet makes no difference to outcome.

The fact is, that any protective effect helmets have are not detectable in the data, so they clearly don't make a significant difference to outcomes.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
I haven't misattributed anything to you. My text is in blue and yours is in black.
I mostly read CycleChat on a Kindle. All text is black. You've put your words inside a box marked QUOTE="mjray... so it looks like I wrote it when I did not. Also, it's a PITA to reply because clicking "Reply" only quotes words that are marked as yours and omits what you put in QUOTE tags.

That defence of misquoting is about as ridiculous as the defence of abusing the injury statistics. Stop both now, please.
 

Profpointy

Legendary Member
(snipped )

. But the fact is, if the fall and bump your head then it is rather odd to think that a helmet makes no difference to outcome.

How come your argument doesn't apply to motorcyclists too?

On the first point above - there is the word "if" - yet your head is quite a lot bigger so it's hard to argue you won't your head a lot more - nearly twice as often based on simple geometry quite apart from any risk-compensation effects by cyclist and passing motorists alike. Also the "making a difference" may also include extra leverage / rotation which may themselves cause more injury than they prevent.

This is why we should look at statistics from countries pre and post compulsion which should show if, in balance, they help or not. From Australia it appears they don't help on average.

On the motorcycle point the helmets are vastly stronger and better designed, and the whole set up is different. And unlike cycle helmets, to my knowledge there isn't a huge body of statistics suggesting the don't help. That said I haven't seen the stats for whether they actually do help, but it is at least more plausible.
 

Wobblers

Euthermic
Location
Minkowski Space
How do you know?
Why do I get the feeling that you wouldn't have said a murmur had I said that the threshold of fatal injury was 300g's?
And to answer your question, I know because the Wayne State Tolerance Curve says so. In fact, for your hypothetical 100g example, impact duration is 6 ms and the threshold of life threatening injury is 90-95g for this duration.. And this assumes that the helmet not merely performs perfectly (does not fail under load by brittle fracture as opposed to crushing) but compresses to a density significantly higher than that of bulk polystyrene. This simply is not possible. And I'm neglecting the (incompressible) polycarbonate shell! Under the most favourable conditions, with the most benign of assumptions, helmet wearing fails to prevent fatal injury. [1]

actually average radius is most important factor and that helmet increases it by about 28% - implying that the probability of a fatal impact load is increased by helmet wearing. Agreed, but the probability increase will be tiny

Incorrect. Collisions take place at surfaces, not radii. Which is why physicists talk about "collision cross sections", measured in units of area. It is not the length of the barn door, nor its height - or even its volume, but its frontal area which determines your chances of hitting it at 6 paces. Your 28% increase in radius (assuming circular geometry, because I CBA to work out a more complex model) means a collision cross section increase of over 60%. And how do you know that the probability increase will "be tiny"? Kindly show your workings.

That is 12 mph head on, like a bash to a car. I calculated it from a fall from a height to pavement, ie like being knocked off the bike and free falling to ground

Absolutely not. You cannot simply discount lateral velocity: momentum does not disappear! Hint: conservation of momentum. One of the more fundamental postulates in physics. Lateral velocity simply cannot be ignored as you claim.


[1] For any innocent bystander - if there's anyone left after all this time! - this actually is the perfect example of why common sense breaks down in situations like this. The human body is surprisingly resilient to extremely high accelerations - for 2-3 ms duration a acceleration of 200g's or more can be tolerated without fatal injury. But it's time dependent! The longer the duration of the acceleration load, the less can be endured. A 75g load will induce a life threatening injury if it lasts for more than 10 ms.

In other words, it is not sufficient merely to reduce impact loads, as common sense suggests. This does not reduce impulse (that pesky conservation of momentum again) any decrease in the collision forces must necessarily be accompanied with a increase in impact duration. Since acceleration tolerance falls substantially as duration increases, this means any protective headgear must act to reduce the experienced force by a greater magnitude than is commonly realised. In fact, given the shape of the Wayne State Tolerance Curve (negative exponential), it is perfectly possible for an inadequate helmet to simply increase the impact duration such that a very short duration but high force impulse which will not cause potentially fatal injuries is extended such that the duration enters the lethal zone simply because it cannot reduce the impact acceleration sufficiently. This worse outcome due to protective head gear is not one that "common sense" would ever predict...
 

srw

It's a bit more complicated than that...
The stats say cyclists, over the same distance covered, are 2x more likely to have a serious injury than peds.
Twice fark-all is still fark-all.

And the "2x" statistic actually means "somewhere between 0.8x and 2.5x", given the difficulty of measuring the mileage people walk and ride.

And the definition of "serious injury" is much looser than you think.

And most "serious injuries" are not head injuries.

As you say - nothing at all to think about or discuss.
 

Wobblers

Euthermic
Location
Minkowski Space
Cobblers - please read below and then admit it :smile:

The rate is 61.9 injuries per 100 Mkm. You have divided the average number of km cycled per person (85) into the 100 Mkm number to get 1176471 cyclists. Then divided that by 61.9 to get 19006 cyclists per serious injury - i.e. 1 in 19006 cyclists over 85 km distance will get a serious injury (0.000052615 injuries per person)

For pedestrians the rate is 31.2 serious injuries per 100 Mkm and the average number of km walked by the sample pedestrian was 290 km. Using the same method: 100 Mkm / 290 km = 344858 peds. Divide that by 31.2 injuries gives 11052 peds per injury - i.e. 1 in 11052 peds over 290 km will get a serious injury (0.00009048 injuries per person)

So it seems like the peds are 2x as likely to get a serious injury. Except that the if you have a choice of traveling to your destination by cycle or by walking, the distance will be the same and so the the risk is actually 2x higher for cyclists. It is however not a very big increase and I am surprised by that enough to make me think I am safer than I think.


I've rarely felt unsafe as a walking commuter unless I've mistimed a run across the road or something, but fairly regularly get a bit of a fright on my bike from dozy selfish 'Jeremy Hunt's' in vehicles, and that is usually not my error but there's. I don't think the stats I have given reflect like with like, i.e. the same busy commute. I guess London figures would make more sense. Anyone care to waste time searching for those??

Perhaps you could have a look at the numbers for fatalities?

They may surprise you.
 

Mugshot

Cracking a solo.
My money's on;
"I don't give a shoot, it's farking obvious and its my head and if you want to die that's up to you, but I'm going to keep wearing one because my mate fell off and he's still alive, so go fark yourselves!!!!"
Or words to that effect.
 
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