As I've said in other posts, I want to believe and I'm only cynical of Nibali's performance due to association with a team with a history of dopng. But really there is no one in his class to compare him too in this race. We'd have expected Froome and Contador to be some way ahead of the rest of the pack on these climbs too, and he is in their league (albeit not quite so strong in my view).
Valvpiti is getting old and sometimes age just catches up with you in a flash, this is the start of a fairly rapid decline in my view, as per Cuddles after winning the Tour. The young podium pretenders would have been expected to be minutes behind Froome, Quintana and Contador, so the status quo is sound here.
I posted just after the Dauphine that historically Nibali displays a shorter form window than some of the other top contenders. He seemed in the right place at that time to peak for the Tour.
So logically, this is all plausible and we should be confident in a worthy winner.
Hmmm, that short peak form window worries me though... we've seen past dopers display this trait. Oh no! I've come full circle!