I don't think you can have looked at the figures...
http://www.tfl.gov.u...on-report-1.pdf
Can you identify the group of trips that can be readily transferred to cycling? Distance matters a great deal here, and London has large commute distances than most places.
The logical thing to aim for is to move people from using private vehicles on shorter trips to bike. This is also the best possible outcome obviously. NR and tube are going to have less transfer to cycling than buses, as buses are used more often for shorter trips than both NR and the underground. All I said was that more cycling = less buses and I stand by that. More cycling also = far fewer cars as well! The overall point is, as I stated, that we could have far fewer motorised vehicles on the road with levels of cycling as seen somewhere like Amsterdam. Surely nobody would argue with that?
I was incorrect that the tube takes the majority of the load, however by distance it is equal to bus use so I wasn't far off and it doesn't change my argument. The fact is, that the tube takes up a massive load so the population differential has less effect (still huge!) than it would have otherwise.
Well as you are so insistent that we can learn from European cities with high levels of cycling, would it not be appropriate also to see what is going on in British cities with high levels of cycling? Because, for the nth time of repetition, the vast majority of cycling in both cities takes place on the road, with the cars, buses, white vans etc, the sort of thing you said will NEVER happen. Furthermore, while there have been efforts, mixed, to introduce cycling specific facilities over the years, the growth in cycling, which occurred in Oxford in the late 70s and early 80s, pre-dates it. And both cities have high levels of bus use as well.
On one hand it's fair to say that I should be familiar with Cambridge and Oxford, but by the same token by the arguments put forward by many people (I don't necessarily mean in this thread) it's clear that most of those opposed to segregation have never cycled in a city where it's done properly.
That aside, I've spent a few hours looking at the map here
http://www.camcycle..../resources/map/ and Google Earth to try to get a feel for the facilities in Cambridge. Now OK I can't go back in time and see what was there in the 70s, and I can only base things on what i can see in Streetview and on the satellite view, but what I saw is a quite highly developed network of routes.
These are very often on quiet roads and have a surprising number of off-road routes (either shared path alongside the roads or truly off-road through green space) as well. Clearly there are routes on A and B roads as well but I found a surprising number of cycle lanes, both mandatory and advisory on these routes (far better than you would see on equivalent streets in London, in my opinion), and as I mentioned before a clear indication that the CCC is working towards MORE segregation (eg latest newsletter re getting rid of parking in the cycle lane along Gilbert Road which is surely a precursor to making it mandatory). I would definitely NOT say that Cambridge is proof of vehicular cycling being successful, at least not from what I saw from the air and on street view. It's full of paths!!
I definitely saw gaps in the paths etc but I get the distinct impression that while the CCC promotes on-road cycling, they firmly believe that segregation is necessary in high traffic environments for the city to go to the next level.
Am I completely wrong? Can somebody here can give an informed and objective response to that?
I'm interested in the way you phrased the question. Do you believe that we have nothing to learn from European cities which have over 40% modal share? If they were other British cities would you be happy to apply the lessons in London?
Edit: By paths above I also mean lanes.