La Vuelta 2013 (24 Aug - 15 Sept) **SPOILERS**

[Old Tom]

Radioshack could go all Sky on us and reveal the data...

As cycling has started sorting itself out I've tried to defend it from detractors who say you can't trust the winners. Aside from the issue that, to me, this is true of just about any sport, I think it's reasonable to take the view that unless you've got a good reason, you've got to take results at face value. Otherwise, what's the point?

But this one does defy reasonable explanation for me. Like rich p I find it hard to believe that anyone would do it this way. But then again, there's always someone prepared to take the risk or who simply doesn't give a toss. I could be shown to be wrong about Horner, but for me this has taken the edge off what was turning into a really exciting and interesting GT. Is it wrong to hope that someone knocks Horner off his perch sooner rather than later?

 

[Flying_Monkey]

I'm absolutely baffled by this. Horner was only ever an above average rider, who is now thrashing some of the best climbers in the peloton up the mountains.

To be fair, that's not quite true. If you look at his palmares, he's had plenty of wins and placings in stage races, almost always mountainous ones. He's just never been consistent, which means when he does put in one of his irregular great performances, it always seems to come out of nowhere.

 

[raindog]

What was odd, was the fact that Horner had 48 seconds on the group of 5 or six when Nibali put that massive Froome-like attack in and dropped the group and rode flat out for the rest of the climb. You would have thought that he would've taken 5 or 10 seconds at least, out of Horner's lead, but at the finish it was still 48 seconds!
And normally, when someone starts performing like this, we've already observed a build-up of decent results over a season or two. Reminds me a bit of Cobo a couple of years ago.

 

[smutchin]

I'm absolutely baffled by this. Horner was only ever an above average rider, who is now thrashing some of the best climbers in the peloton up the mountains.

Hmmm...

On yesterday's stage, the lead group on the final climb comprised:

Valverde - who has good form but clearly no longer has the climbing legs he used to be famous for, for reasons which are open to speculation.
Basso - who, at a sprightly 35, hasn't been one of the best climbers in the peloton for two years, for reasons which are open to speculation.
Roche - who, with all due respect, has never been one of the best climbers in the peloton, has never performed to the level expected of him... so how come no one is asking the same questions of him as they're asking of Horner? Is he finally becoming the rider he was always expected to be, is this a one-off exceptional performance, or is he just being made to look good by the level of competition in this race?
Nibali - who has had a punishing race schedule this year, but was still able to easily race away from the rest of the group when he finally decided to attack, and maybe should have won the stage but left it too late, possibly because he underestimated Horner, possibly deliberately because he didn't want to get back in Red too soon.
Rodriguez - who has good form but who also had a tough TdF.
Pinot - who seems to have rediscovered his mojo and maybe should have done better.

The average speed for the stage was about 41.6km/h, which seems fast but... I dunno. Within what's expected from a rider of Horner's calibre? The two big climbs were steep but not all that long. The rest of the stage was rolling.

Horner's performance in Utah may not necessarily be indicative of good form at this level, but that race would have featured similarly high temperatures, so perhaps he's better adjusted to the heat than some of his rivals.

All in all, I would say the available evidence isn't necessarily indicative of anything suspicious. As in no proof either way.

I still think Horner is a massive twat though.

 

[thom]

@smutchin I totally agree re Basso & Roche - I thought about mentioning them both actually but decided not as I think it is a shame if we are always pointing fingers and being fascinated by speculating who is doping. I'm prepared to believe your explanations that people are generally knackered, that the race is not quite at the sharp end, that perhaps tactics were not best played and that dopers will get caught in due course.

 

[smutchin]

perhaps tactics were not best played

This. When Nibali attacked, it looked like he'd just had enough of all the fannying about and rode away from the group very easily.

 

[rich p]

To be fair to me I didn't point the finger but just indicated bafflement. I also pointed out other reasons that the opposition may be tired or tardy!
I hear what you're all saying cos I've run it around my head too but seeing Horner as a GT winner at 42 is stretching my credulity to breaking point.
Put it this way, I wouldn't have been putting 50 quid on him at the beginning of August!
Still, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as clean until Hawkeye or Hotspot proves otherwise

 

[rich p]

Maybe GlowSpot in cycling though!

 

[Crackle]

I watched it again. Horner rode away slowly and no one went with him because they all seemed to be watching each other, then Nibali had a test dig and then went. It wasn't long after that that the road flattened slightly and therefore the gaps everyone put in stayed roughly the same. All knew it was a rest day today and a TT after, which may have influenced Horner's thinking, he certainly said after that he didn't expect to be in red at the end of the TT.

 

[smutchin]

To be fair to me I didn't point the finger but just indicated bafflement.

To be fair to you, the reply was to your post but not aimed at you specifically, more a general evaluation of how I see things.

Still, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as clean until Hawkeye or Hotspot proves otherwise

I'm giving him the benefit of nothing. He's a nobber and I reckon very probably a doper, past or present or both. I just don't see any tangible evidence of doping in his performance yesterday.

 

[rich p]

Like Crackle, I'm surprised nothing came up in the USADA report if he was part of the inner ring.

 

[Hont]

Estimated power for Horner yesterday 6.2 W/Kg. Age 41. You've got to be kidding me.

Is Horner facing the same accusations that Froome faced in the Tour? If not, why not?

 

[smutchin]

Is Horner facing the same accusations that Froome faced in the Tour?

Apparently, yes, he is.

Where is that estimate from? It does look a bit... interesting.

 

[Crackle]

Estimated power for Horner yesterday 6.2 W/Kg. Age 41. You've got to be kidding me.

Is Horner facing the same accusations that Froome faced in the Tour? If not, why not?

For 5k, why not.

 

[VamP]

I'm giving him the benefit of nothing. He's a nobber and I reckon very probably a doper, past or present or both. I just don't see any tangible evidence of doping in his performance yesterday.

TBH you are never going to get tangible evidence of doping from performance, but watching him him ride away yesterday left me.... well, kinda hollow.