Hydrogen power

[dicko]

Or just make quick note of the 5 that are still open...

The Germans like their Hydrogen gas the French not so much

 

[wafter]

It's hard to take anything seriously from Toyota. They are very anti BEV.

I'd look at that from the other direction tbh. When the world's largest car manufacturer - who was one of the first to introduce (at least partially) electric propulsion to the mainstream market - questions the viability of EVs, one assumes they have some legitimate reasons.

Personally I think that in the short-medium term hybrids and PHEVs make the most sense for many markets and end users..

 

[icowden]

Personally I think that in the short-medium term hybrids and PHEVs make the most sense for many markets and end users..

Yes, i've heard that the hybrid market is really on fire...

 

[CXRAndy]

I'd look at that from the other direction tbh. When the world's largest car manufacturer - who was one of the first to introduce (at least partially) electric propulsion to the mainstream market - questions the viability of EVs, one assumes they have some legitimate reasons.

Personally I think that in the short-medium term hybrids and PHEVs make the most sense for many markets and end users..

I cant help thinking Toyota were playing the market, introducing hybrid, to continue their internal combustion engine division. Being the biggest manufacturer and leader in hybrid tech, they could have easily developed a BEV early to test the market in the early days.

It really is the legacy manufacturers reluctantly dragging their heels towards BEV- reliance on internal combustion will ultimately cost them dear

I think the Chinese and Tesla will BEV will bring down a few big giants in the future.

 

[Tenkaykev]

I cant help thinking Toyota were playing the market, introducing hybrid, to continue their internal combustion engine division. Being the biggest manufacturer and leader in hybrid tech, they could have easily developed a BEV early to test the market in the early days.

It really is the legacy manufacturers reluctantly dragging their heels towards BEV- reliance on internal combustion will ultimately cost them dear

I think the Chinese and Tesla will BEV will bring down a few big giants in the future.

One aspect with Toyota which I suspect plays a very large part in them continuing down the Hydrogen road is fear of " losing face " by having to admit to have backed the wrong horse. It's very difficult for a westerner to comprehend how deeply ingrained in the Japanese culture it is.

 

[dicko]

I remember in the 50’s Britain was trying to develop the H bomb but couldn’t but they did succeed to produce the biggest A bomb. The Yanks didn’t want to share their secret and time was running out (non proliferation treaty) but somehow we did manage something. Dad was a RAF pilot but he wouldn’t talk about it.

 

[cougie uk]

I'd look at that from the other direction tbh. When the world's largest car manufacturer - who was one of the first to introduce (at least partially) electric propulsion to the mainstream market - questions the viability of EVs, one assumes they have some legitimate reasons.

Personally I think that in the short-medium term hybrids and PHEVs make the most sense for many markets and end users..

Big companies can and do mess up.
Remember Kodak ? They invented the first digital camera and then buried it so as to not damage their film sales. They could have been leaders. ..

 

[Alex321]

Big companies can and do mess up.
Remember Kodak ? They invented the first digital camera and then buried it so as to not damage their film sales. They could have been leaders. ..

And Nokia. They had one iof the first smartphones (N95) but then didn't go down the touchscreen route, and are now one of the smaller players in the phone market, from being the biggest.

 

[wafter]

Big companies can and do mess up.
Remember Kodak ? They invented the first digital camera and then buried it so as to not damage their film sales. They could have been leaders. ..

Indeed; but again that cuts both ways - for example investing enormous amounts of money in a manufacturing plant for EV batteries when market demand dries up..

 

[wafter]

I cant help thinking Toyota were playing the market, introducing hybrid, to continue their internal combustion engine division. Being the biggest manufacturer and leader in hybrid tech, they could have easily developed a BEV early to test the market in the early days.

It really is the legacy manufacturers reluctantly dragging their heels towards BEV- reliance on internal combustion will ultimately cost them dear

I think the Chinese and Tesla will BEV will bring down a few big giants in the future.

I agree that when it comes to EV vehicles specifically existing IC manufacturers seem to be lagging newer EV-specific players.. however I'd question your suggestion about Toyota's reasons.

Flatlining demand for, and catastrophic depreciation of EVs seems to suggest that the brand's skepticism is reflected in consumer sentiment too, while there seem plenty of useage models that don't suit current EV capabilities - something their proponents seem to conveniently forget.

 

[Alex321]

I agree that when it comes to EV vehicles specifically existing IC manufacturers seem to be lagging newer EV-specific players.. however I'd question your suggestion about Toyota's reasons.

Flatlining demand for,

The statistics disagree
https://heycar.com/uk/news/car-sales-statistics

and catastrophic depreciation of EVs

Again, the numbers don't bear out thise argument
https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/does-fuel-type-impact-the-value-of-your-car

seems to suggest that the brand's skepticism is reflected in consumer sentiment too, while there seem plenty of useage models that don't suit current EV capabilities - something their proponents seem to conveniently forget.

There are some usage models which don't suit current EV capabilities.

The anti-EV people tend to exaggerate these greatly, and suggest that a significant portion of users fall into those usage models.

 

[fossyant]

You only need to go on auto-trader to look at the catastrophic depreciation of EV's. I've been looking. The diesel version of the vehicle I am looking at, a four year old model with 30-50k miles is more expensive that a nearly new (less than 5k) miles EV version. The EV version has lost about 25k in less than a year. The diesel, about £15k in 4 years.

Back to hydrogen, the Institution I work for are busy researching hydrogen with a number of commercial partners. It's looking far more likely that hydrogen will be used for commercial properties, where scale, and, the lack of need to transport it can be achieved. Eg, hydrogen made on a site surrounded by industrial businesses. At the moment, it's incredibly expensive in terms of energy to make hydrogen. It won't be in cars anytime soon.

 

[Gillstay]

And Nokia. They had one iof the first smartphones (N95) but then didn't go down the touchscreen route, and are now one of the smaller players in the phone market, from being the biggest.

Yep, and General Motors had a head start at electric cars and killed it themselves. I wonder if a few ex top bosses have watched Tesla's rise with a sense of distain.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You only need to go on auto-trader to look at the catastrophic depreciation of EV's. I've been looking. The diesel version of the vehicle I am looking at, a four year old model with 30-50k miles is more expensive that a nearly new (less than 5k) miles EV version. The EV version has lost about 25k in less than a year. The diesel, about £15k in 4 years.

Back to hydrogen, the Institution I work for are busy researching hydrogen with a number of commercial partners. It's looking far more likely that hydrogen will be used for commercial properties, where scale, and, the lack of need to transport it can be achieved. Eg, hydrogen made on a site surrounded by industrial businesses. At the moment, it's incredibly expensive in terms of energy to make hydrogen. It won't be in cars anytime soon.

There's a big difference though; most EVs are bought through company schemes with a huge BIK subsidy. So you'd expect depreciation higher in early years simply because it's ~30% cheaper to buy a new one than the list price.

 

[wafter]

The statistics disagree
https://heycar.com/uk/news/car-sales-statistics


Again, the numbers don't bear out thise argument
https://motorway.co.uk/sell-my-car/guides/does-fuel-type-impact-the-value-of-your-car


There are some usage models which don't suit current EV capabilities.

The anti-EV people tend to exaggerate these greatly, and suggest that a significant portion of users fall into those usage models.

Your first link only appears to state market share for 2024 in isolation. This link covers market share of new vehicles sold from 2020 to 2024 (about halfway down the page) - with market share for BEVs rising from around 6-7% to 16-17% between 2020 and 2022, but from this point remaining largely flat the the circa 18% it is currently.

I don't see anything significant in the second link to disprove the suggestion that EVs depreciate faster than IC alternatives. Looking at Whatcar's top 10 highest depreciating cars, five are pure-electric, three are hybrids and only two are pure-ICE. It appears that none of the 10 slowest depreciating cars have any electric content (although granted most of them are bloody horrible).

This behaviour is summarised much more succinctly here:

According to the British Vehicle Rental & Leasing Association (BVRLA), EVs are currently experiencing what it calls “exceptional depreciation.” Over the past two years, the residual value of electric cars (how much a car is worth after three years) has dropped sharply. While a typical new EV might retain 60% of its value after three years in 2022, that figure has since plunged to just 35%. In other words, a £50,000 electric car is now likely to be worth only £17,500 after three years, instead of £30,000.

The last statement about usage models is really just hyperbole and there are plenty of factors such as availabiltiy of charging, time constraints, range etc that make then less appealing than ICE alternatives.. which I suspect are a large part of why demand for new EVs has been broadly flat for the past two years.