neil_merseyside
Guru
- Location
- Wirral
I'd give the government until the end of this month, before I reckon compliance will start to plummet. If Johnson turns around in the next week or so and says "right, on 30th April, it's over. Everything re-opens on 1st May, pubs open, business open, school open, football back on, go out and enjoy yourself, and thanks for what you're doing to help in the meantime" then he'll keep the vast majority on board in the meantime.
On the other hand, if they keep trying to extend this disruption because they're still getting a few thousand more cases a day and a few hundred more deaths a day, whilst more people lose their jobs and more business goes bust and it really starts to feck up the economy in a big way, people are going to start to think the collateral damage is worse than the virus itself. Plus, you are just not going to be able to keep 60 million people indoors once we really start to move into the summer season. What we're in at the moment is a honeymoon period during which the government are drawing on a reserve of public goodwill. It isn't going to last for month after month.
Trump in the USA understands this, even if his main consideration is getting re-elected. You can't impose this sort of regime on an open-ended basis in any democratic society. Even China wouldn't get away with it as it would eventually bankrupt them. There has to be a clearly defined end date and it can't be more than a few weeks or the lockdown will end itself anyway through mass non-compliance.
So let me get this right, you're effectively sacrificing the 70+ group (27% survival) and then the immuno compromised and pre-existing illness? It's what Trump's doing so it must be right??
Really?