My problem with that, Jonesy, is that you're abstracting a theory from data that is shorn of its cultural relevance, and extrapolating outward. To pick up on something that Greg Collins said, behaviour is cultural, and we're in a country that has a vast variety of driving cultures. To me the difference between behaviour in southeast London and soutwest London is evident, and, if I care to ponder it, I can, perhaps, work out why that might be. What happens in Oxford may not hold good in Merton.
I think that the DfT is at a loss in two respects - it has absolutely no understanding of public space (and I'd include the bods in the TPN in that) and no interest in culture. It goes without saying that the CEGB mirrors that blindness (and other blindnesses besides) and that when the CTC decided to go national with campaigning it lost sight of the obvious - that the instincts and values of local activists might offer more of an insight than aggregated data and the 'guidance' that results.
To me it seems obvious. The Romford Road is a different animal from the Clapham Road. As Greg said, the Isle of Wight is on a different planet than Berkshire. For that matter Berkshire is on a different planet to almost anywhere else, and it's not a nice planet. Folk in Lambeth don't do racism and don't do homophobia - why are they going to drive the same way as the folk in (say) Winchester?
I take your point about risk compensation in reverse, and I accept entirely that if you insert mini-roundabouts it might have a broadly similar effect in Derby and Dumfries. I believe that the kind of huge roundabout that we see in places like Basildon is an anathema and has contributed to a culture of irresponsibility, not to say imbecility amongst the driving population of Basildon. That said, it's a two way thing. In Oxford you have a measure of culture (I've got friends on Blackbird Leys, so I know this is a bit of a generalisation), but in Mitcham there is only anomie. That doesn't make it a hopeless case, but any political effort in Mitcham has to recognise that the culture, or lack of it, is particular....