CycleChat Investigates - The future of tranport

[lane]

Really though, ever since I watched Blade Runner, I wanted one of those flying cars. Not sure what fuel they used.

 

[Mike_P]

Battery costs are predicted to plummet such that in around five years time electric cars will not be more expensive. Bad news for current owners of such. As for the issues with battery manufacturer as that is contained in a limited area it should be feasible to clean the issue up with better storage and disposable methods of the nasties. Can quite see it becoming a marketing issue by the car manufactures on how environmentally clean the manufacture of the batteries they use is.

 

[Blue Hills]

Battery costs are predicted to plummet such that in around five years time electric cars will not be more expensive.

oo - good news for anyone planning, but in no great rush, to get an ebike eventually?
This impending plummet is a general thing?

Have no plans at all to ever buy a car (both the ones i mistreated were company ones) and will be happy to run around with a bit of battery assistance and public transport.

 

[Drago]

Well, the wise men and women of cyclechat have spoke, and very interesting it is too.

Near on twice as many people are planning to stay dino for as long as possible than there are planning to go battery powered.

And nearly as many, including myself, will simply bin their current car off when it dies rather than go battery powered.

And a significant number think hydrogen is the long term future, and Id3 be inclinded to agree.

So well done - an interesting and insightful thread from me. Who'd have thunk it?

 

[byegad]

Shame they weren't in charge of airbags a couple of years ago!

That was tokama, who make most airbags for the world's car makers.

 

[Electric_Andy]

I was suprised to read about Hydrogen; how cheap and easy it is to collect. I didn't know it was a by-product. Which begs the question, why is it not being made use of in cars yet? The cynical side of me thinks that the oil companies, various governments and anyone else with a vested interest in fossil fuels are using their power to stop it maybe? But I suppose you also need the R&D for engine technology which is probably harder than it sounds.

Then I was wondering, how easy is it to transport? i.e how do you get it from factory to petrol station? A quick google suggests that it only has 1/4 the energy that petrol has for a given unit. So perhaps we'd need to fill up with 160L of Hydrogen if we expected the same range as a petrol car? But it says that NASA have used it in space shuttles so it can't be that hard. I mean, it's not rocket science

 

[Oldhippy]

Electric Andy you are probably right about that. One of the mainstays of world economy is based on oil and that power has been held for a long while now. I suspect they will not give up lightly.

 

[Drago]

That was tokama, who make most airbags for the world's car makers.

Although it only affected the ones made to Toyotas requested specification.

 

[lane]

Are you sure?

The automotive world and beyond is buzzing about the massive airbag recall covering many millions of vehicles in the United States from nearly two dozen brands. Here’s what you need to know about the problem; which vehicles may have the defective, shrapnel-shooting inflator parts from Japanese supplier Takata; and what to do if your vehicle is one of them.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a...now-including-full-list-of-affected-vehicles/

 

[byegad]

Although it only affected the ones made to Toyotas requested specification.

IIRC American car makers also had a huge recall for replacement of airbags, made by Takoma.

 

[Drago]

I was suprised to read about Hydrogen; how cheap and easy it is to collect. I didn't know it was a by-product. Which begs the question, why is it not being made use of in cars yet? The cynical side of me thinks that the oil companies, various governments and anyone else with a vested interest in fossil fuels are using their power to stop it maybe? But I suppose you also need the R&D for engine technology which is probably harder than it sounds.

Then I was wondering, how easy is it to transport? i.e how do you get it from factory to petrol station? A quick google suggests that it only has 1/4 the energy that petrol has for a given unit. So perhaps we'd need to fill up with 160L of Hydrogen if we expected the same range as a petrol car? But it says that NASA have used it in space shuttles so it can't be that hard. I mean, it's not rocket science

The potential enegy density of gydrogen is higher when used in fuel cells than when burned.

The eneegy density of electeic car batteries is, at best, 265WH/kg, and half that is more typical. Petrol is 12300 WH/kg. Even worse, a dead flat electric car battery still weighs the same as a fully charged one, giving 0 WH/kg.

Batteries are inefficient, and the answer to little, and its astonishing that when one considers the maths involved, that industry and goverment are so keen to go down that rabbit hole - hydrogen, for all its own problems, puts the enrgy density back on a comparable scale to fossil fuels.

 

[swee'pea99]

I seem to remember reading somewhere that The Big Problem with electric cars is that if asked to replace fossil fuel cars overnight, they couldn't, because their manufacture involves rare metals, and the world just doesn't have enough of them to meet the need, if electric vehicles became the norm. Maybe science will solve this conundrum, but as of now it's a deal breaker...as I understand it.

As to The Future of Transport, it seems to me the big challenge is to stop 100kg payloads being transported by 1200kg lumps of metal. You want to get from A to B, but you have to take this ton and more of metal with you? It's insane.

Reading up about the relative lifetime environmental impact of electric v petrol cars, I was surprised to discover that currently electric cars have the edge, but not by a great deal, and in truth the big impact difference was not petrol v electric but big v small. Over its lifetime - from raw materials to ultimate disposal - a big comfy Tesla will have a significantly greater impact than my Honda Jazz, simply because of the extra energy involved in hauling all that weight over the surface of the planet.

Cycling, obviously. Electric scooters, absolutely. Affordable - subsidised if needs be - public transport. Hopefully new, 'scooter-like' vehicles, backed up by draconian 'presumed liability' legislation - ie, super-lightweight, low powered, good for local small-load journeys. Hire a larger vehicle on the few occasions you need one, but do 95% of your day to day getting around without taking a ton of steel along.

Ultimately, though, I suspect we're all doomed, because there are billions of aspirational people all over the world, and most of them want cars. We've had them for years; now they want one too. And who can blame them? But unless we as a species can somehow change that mindset - break that association between car ownership and personal prestige - we're screwed.

Personally I think we're screwed.

 

[tyred]

I favour smaller, lighter petrol cars personally. I don't like the way fashion seems to have pushed people towards bloated SUVs which surely consume a lot more energy during manufacture and in use not to mention the increased danger (to everyone outside the car) in an accident.

I remain unconvinced by electric vehicles. They will of course improve air quality locally and also reduce noise in urban areas but they're at best just moving the issue somewhere else and when the manufacturing of batteries is considered they are possible more damaging to the world than a normal ICE car.

The inconvenient truth that people seem to blind to see or don't want to admit to themselves is that there are two many cars used too frequently. It doesn't matter how you power them, they still congest our towns and cities, cause death and destruction making the roads more dangerous for cyclists, pedestrians and motorcyclists and in an urban area a car is hopelessly inefficient and potentially slower than walking in the busy times.

We actually do have the so-called "Green" party in power in a coalition government at the moment. Where are the improved cycling facilities, improved public transport network and sustainable transport initiatives? They have introduced tax breaks for electric cars - much greener! The last time we had the Green party in government in 2008 they changed the tax system to encourage the use of "green" diesel cars which led to people buying large SUVs rather than smaller engined cars. They might call themselves the Green party but they're nothing of the sort. It's all about the populist vote.

The smoking ban showed how government policy could make changes in the way we viewed smoking and has led to a drastic drop in tobacco use. We need a government with vision to help people make better transport choices but it won't happen as they're scared they'll lose votes and everyone wants their Range Rover or Audi Q7 to take little Jimmy half a mile to school. We're doomed.

 

[Brains]

Thatcher was she the one who did the Euro tunnel?

A story I have told before: I got it from the horse's mouth, so I believe it to be largely true:

When Margaret Thatcher and President Mitterrand signed the deal to build the Channel Tunnel the first part of the deal was signed in Paris.
The entire party of French and British politicians and Whitehall and Elese Palace Mandarins then all went to Gare du Nord and got onto one of the (then) brand new TGV trains that was bought in specially for the entourage. The entire party blasted across the French countryside at 200 mph with green lights arranged all the way to Calais, where they all got out and got on a ferry to Dover.
They entire party then walked to Dover Station and got on a scheduled traditional slam door British Rail train to London stopping at many stations en route as they rocked through Kent at speeds of upto 60 mph.
The French thought this was a great joke, the British doing the complete opposite of the French and showing off old rolling stock, they were however a bit disappointed that it was not a steam train at the front.

Thatcher did not get the joke.

When Mitterand asked about the new line between Dover and London, her reply was "what line ?'"
Up until that point the idea of a new high speed rail line between London and the tunnel had not even been considered!
Hence although the tunnel opened in 1994 the line (HS1) was not discussed until 1996 (after Thatcher had gone) and consequently did not open fully until 2007, 14 years late.

Thatcher always intended the Channel Tunnel to be a road tunnel, and to this day the UK maintains permission to build a road tunnel, a clause that was added to the agreement after it had been signed.

 

[Oldhippy]

That doesn't surprise me in the least if true. UK to this day is backward in so many ways.