COVID Vaccine !

[Craig the cyclist]

part of it would be vaccinating everyone who can be

Who can be? We can vaccinate absolutely everybody, everyone has some muscular tissue we can stick a needle in. So compulsory vaccination from you is a good start

putting more money into decent cycling and walking commuting/shopping routes to get people out of enclosed bus/tram and polluting cars

You are happy to discriminate against people who use public transport too. Very good.

The first two steps of your plan then are compulsory vaccination and making people walk and cycle. I have to say that is less libertarian than I was expecting from you, but good to know exactly where you stand. Certainly we are also in agreement on the first part.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

I'm telling you we're off topic.

Oh no, you are telling us much more than that

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So compulsory vaccination from you is a good start

A suggestion that to address the points being made rather than invent ones not being made would improve the dialogue.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Who can be? We can vaccinate absolutely everybody, everyone has some muscular tissue we can stick a needle in. So compulsory vaccination from you is a good start


You are happy to discriminate against people who use public transport too. Very good.

The first two steps of your plan then are compulsory vaccination and making people walk and cycle. I have to say that is less libertarian than I was expecting from you, but good to know exactly where you stand. Certainly we are also in agreement on the first part.

That's not remotely what @mjr wrote. If we're going to discuss things, let's keep it to points actually made, rather than extreme interpretations thereof.

[Edit: Beaten by @roubaixtuesday ]

 

[purpan]

My wife’s also a teacher. Last week one student was repeatedly pulling off her mask and saying « I can’t breathe ». At the break, she was outside the building smoking a cigarette.

 

[PK99]

I have posted plans occasionally in the past, generally of the form of allowing various things when R is below such-and-such.

When the chain: R >>>> Cases >>>> Hospitalisations >>>> ICU >>>>Deaths
was as it was pre Vaccine, R was a valid proxy measure for controlling impact on NHS and reducing the Death rate.

Vaccination has broken that direct chain and R is now not the useful measure it was.

 

[Milkfloat]

Uh, you're the person suggesting border policy was critical to protect against this risk, not me. You're now arguing it doesn't need to be protected against...

I am arguing that if a new variant is found, then borders should close to people from that area until we know if our vaccines are effective. The chances are they will be, but if they are not then every day counts to slow the spread of that variant.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I am arguing that if a new variant is found, then borders should close to people from that area until we know if our vaccines are effective. The chances are they will be, but if they are not then every day counts to slow the spread of that variant.

Fair enough, that wasn't how I read it, my apologies.

At the same time you're arguing that making our own country the most efficient possible vaccine resistant variant generator, simultaneously prioritising border controls against variants seems somewhat inconsistent.

 

[winjim]

Oh no, you are telling us much more than that

Fine. Here's an actual expert.


View: https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1412306682626121729?s=19

 

[Milkfloat]

Fair enough, that wasn't how I read it, my apologies.

At the same time you're arguing that making our own country the most efficient possible vaccine resistant variant generator, simultaneously prioritising border controls against variants seems somewhat inconsistent.

I am confused, as I posted above, so far variants are not being produced by people who have been vaccinated, it is unvaccinated immunocompromised people.

 

[Pale Rider]

you're arguing that making our own country the most efficient possible vaccine resistant variant generator,

A suggestion that to address the points being made rather than invent ones not being made would improve the dialogue.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

so far variants are not being produced by people who have been vaccinated, it is unvaccinated immunocompromised people.

Variants are being produced all the time, as every replication of the virus brings the possibility of mutation. So everyone who has the virus has a proportion of potential new variants circulating in their body.

Now, if you wanted to generate a vaccine resistant virus, the *best* way to do it is to expose people who have been vaccinated to lots of virus.

Every single virion they are exposed to which has a new mutation is then tested against their vaccine generated immune response. Should one of those mutations imbue resistance to vaccine endowed immunity, then hey presto that mutated virus then replicates in the vaccinated individual, who passes it on to another. A vaccine resistant variant is born.

It's impossible to say how likely this scenario is, but if we have 100,000 cases rather than 1,000 it's 100x more likely.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You are quite right. I should have said "your proposal would make our own country the most efficient possible vaccine resistant variant generator"

I shall defer to your sagacious Paleness's rhetorical guidance in future.

 

[Milkfloat]

Variants are being produced all the time, as every replication of the virus brings the possibility of mutation. So everyone who has the virus has a proportion of potential new variants circulating in their body.

Now, if you wanted to generate a vaccine resistant virus, the *best* way to do it is to expose people who have been vaccinated to lots of virus.

Every single virion they are exposed to which has a new mutation is then tested against their vaccine generated immune response. Should one of those mutations imbue resistance to vaccine endowed immunity, then hey presto that mutated virus then replicates in the vaccinated individual, who passes it on to another. A vaccine resistant variant is born.

It's impossible to say how likely this scenario is, but if we have 100,000 cases rather than 1,000 it's 100x more likely.

Fully agree, but if the likelihood is really low, then there is no real reason to stop the unlock. As you can see by my earlier post, whilst I agree with the government and the majority of scientists that we should unlock I think we should not drop all the measures that have been put in place.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the majority of scientists

I don't think that's the case. There seem to be more questioning than supporting. But of course, there isn't an opinion poll available, and it's certainly true that opinion is divided.

That reflects the uncertainty in what will happen of course.