COVID Vaccine !

[Ajax Bay]

Is there evidence that quarantine hotels are working for arrivals from India?

Is there evidence that quarantine hotels are not working for arrivals from India since 23 Apr?
But this is the 'vaccine' thread, so 'off topic' imho.

 

[mjr]

Is there evidence that quarantine hotels are not working for arrivals from India since 23 Apr?

It arises logically from previous posts and is not much of a topic drift.

I have heard anecdotes, from people I trust who I think have no reason to invent them, but I would prefer data. I don't know where the data on quarantine hotels is being published and I thought someone here might, because there seems a lot of confidence in them.

 

[lane]

Just back from seeing Doctor 10 days after second Pfizer dose, with various rashes and swellings. Placed on a short steroid course and high dose of antihistamines. Also told must consult surgery before any future jabs.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

My vaccine record is now visible on the NHS app.
Dates. Vaccine. Batch number

My wife's is too - good app!

Get my second tonight so mine won't be live for 12 days acording to the app.

 

[vickster]

My wife's is too - good app!

Get my second tonight so mine won't be live for 12 days acording to the app.

Why does it take so long? My first one was documented on patient access the day after?

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Why does it take so long? My first one was documented on patient access the day after?

Ditto.

Presume that is the time it is now being given to take effect?

 

[potsy]

Just got the invitation for my 2nd jab, will be 9 weeks since my 1st

 

[Ajax Bay]

The acceleration of doses in those already vaccinated makes no sense in the situation we're in.
One dose gives good protection against infection and symptoms.
A second dose makes a decent, but incremental improvement to that.
But the risk here is a major 3rd spike. That risk is *massively* reduced in a highly non- linear fashion by vaccinating the unvaccinated, who have no immunity.
I'd have a very simple policy at this point.
Hang second doses, get them done later if need be.
Open vaccinations to u40s across the board and get as many into arms as possible. Let local areas decide how to prioritise.
It would get us as fast as possible to herd immunity, and actually protect the people denied second doses on time more, because they'd be far less likely to get exposed.

vaccination is not the way to contain local outbreaks with exponential rise in cases.
[and]
Talking about why surge vaccination in Bolton would not be the best way to tackle the outbreak in the first instance.

More on Surge vaccination
Advice by SPI-M-O to SAGE (taken 13 May) (My precis)
SPI-M-O have considered the merits of surge vaccination of younger age groups in areas with rapidly growing outbreaks of the B.1.617.2 variant, to dampen transmission.

It would be operationally challenging and has an opportunity cost of slowing the rollout of vaccines to other parts of the country. The marginal benefit of vaccines at present in areas of high variants of concern growth, however, is many times higher than it is in lower prevalence parts of the country. Would rely on/assume effectiveness of existing vaccines against this VoC.

"There is an inherent lag between vaccination and the establishment of protection of the vaccinated individual, and B.1.617.2 has the potential to spread very rapidly out of areas where it is currently present. It will take some time before surge vaccination starts to break chains of transmission, and thus the variant could spread beyond the targeted area. For that reason, for surge vaccination to be successful it would need to be:

• Started as soon as possible, while the absolute number of cases B.1.617.2 remains relatively low
• Targeted at a wider geographical area than that where the variant is prevalent
• Combined with short term local NPIs"

"In summary, while the success of a surge vaccination programme is not guaranteed, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside with relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission."

 

[DaveReading]

It would also have "saved lives" (Covid-wise) if everybody self-isolated at home from early January for 12 months to allow full rollout of vaccinations. Should we have done that?

Of course not - what's your point ?

Yes, banning travel from India a couple of weeks earlier would have had a downside, but hardly comparable to that of putting the whole of the UK in quarantine for a year.

 

[Buck]

The EMA have approved the Pfizer vaccine to have a life of up to 31 days in 2-8C storage.

it is currently 120 hours which is a logistical challenge for vaccine sitesand creates stress points of delivery to the patient. The MHRA Is reviewing the situation and will decide if It will follow suit or stick with the 5days (in reality this 5 days is actuall 4 days for vaccine sites which includes the day of delivery, so 3 days of vaccinating!!)

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Second jab this evening - didn't feel a thing.

Hope I have no after effects as per the first jab in Feb.

 

[midlife]

Just got the invitation for my 2nd jab, will be 9 weeks since my 1st

That's interesting, thanks. Was listening to the Public health person from Bolton on Radio 4 this morning on the way to work saying young people not eligible would be turned away. Some government spokesman was also saying that all areas should follow the official government guidelines.

Then this afternoon it all seemed to change with jabs going into everybody in the queue.

 

[Ajax Bay]

this afternoon it all seemed to change with jabs going into everybody in the [Bolton] queue.

Prevalence in Bolton is twice that of the second worst!
You can see the marginal benefit (see SPI-M-O precis in my post above) of using doses in specific areas of high prevalence (with a more transmissible variant) as first doses for all adults accepting the opportunity cost of slightly slower (by a few days) second doses in areas (regions even) of the UK where prevalence is very low. There's clear merit in turning round vaccine hesitancy in those areas/communities too and getting first jab uptake into the high 90s. Look at the number in Bolton hospital who had been offered a vaccine and refused it (some may have for medical reasons, of course).

Send the relevant hubs some diverted supplies (at the expense of other regions whose second doses can stay at 11-12 weeks and who can pause the first jabs for 37+ year olds) and allow the local vaccine programme managers some freedom to achieve clear objectives (see below).
Surge vaccination (high prevalence areas) priorities:
1) First jabs for the previously vaccine hesitant (with the almost explicit threat of a local reversion to greater restrictions as the 'stick')
2) Second jabs for all those over 55 (will be an 8 week gap at least) - note the enhancement of a second jab at 8 weeks is less than one after a gap at 12 weeks (but the next 4 weeks matter in high prevalence areas)
3) First jabs for anyone over 18
Vaccinating the third category is not in line with the direct saving of lives/from serious illness (the JCVI mantra) but, 14 days down the line, all adults will have first jab level of protection; thus the susceptible population will have shrunk and community spread of this highly transmissible virus variant will be curtailed. Indirectly this will save lives and importantly keep cases UK-wide lower than they would be if we (just) plough on down the ages. This is a better outcome for the UK population as a whole and for the vast majority in particular. This hopefully temporary diversion of effort is, I acknowledge, not without operational challenge.

I wonder if there is a SAGE/SPI-M-O versus JCVI battle going on? Politicians will be the arbiters, thank goodness: we've seen how these scientists love to argue (arguing is a good thing btw, though not so much when the enemy is firing at you).

 

[PK99]

we've seen how these scientists love to argue (arguing is a good thing btw, though not so much when the enemy is firing at you).

That is of course how science works and progresses. Every published research paper is an invitation to challenge.

 

[midlife]

Prevalence in Bolton is twice that of the second worst!
You can see the marginal benefit (see SPI-M-O precis in my post above) of using doses in specific areas of high prevalence (with a more transmissible variant) as first doses for all adults accepting the opportunity cost of slightly slower (by a few days) second doses in areas (regions even) of the UK where prevalence is very low. There's clear merit in turning round vaccine hesitancy in those areas/communities too and getting first jab uptake into the high 90s. Look at the number in Bolton hospital who had been offered a vaccine and refused it (some may have for medical reasons, of course).

Send the relevant hubs some diverted supplies (at the expense of other regions whose second doses can stay at 11-12 weeks and who can pause the first jabs for 37+ year olds) and allow the local vaccine programme managers some freedom to achieve clear objectives (see below).
Surge vaccination (high prevalence areas) priorities:
1) First jabs for the previously vaccine hesitant (with the almost explicit threat of a local reversion to greater restrictions as the 'stick')
2) Second jabs for all those over 55 (will be an 8 week gap at least) - note the enhancement of a second jab at 8 weeks is less than one after a gap at 12 weeks (but the next 4 weeks matter in high prevalence areas)
3) First jabs for anyone over 18
Vaccinating the third category is not in line with the direct saving of lives/from serious illness (the JCVI mantra) but, 14 days down the line, all adults will have first jab level of protection; thus the susceptible population will have shrunk and community spread of this highly transmissible virus variant will be curtailed. Indirectly this will save lives and importantly keep cases UK-wide lower than they would be if we (just) plough on down the ages. This is a better outcome for the UK population as a whole and for the vast majority in particular. This hopefully temporary diversion of effort is, I acknowledge, not without operational challenge.

I wonder if there is a SAGE/SPI-M-O versus JCVI battle going on? Politicians will be the arbiters, thank goodness: we've seen how these scientists love to argue (arguing is a good thing btw, though not so much when the enemy is firing at you).

Have you come across OODA Loop in Government / NHS planning?