So if my maths is right, that means all of this group, plus the end of the 50-60s and any future groups, won't get their second dose until weeks after Johnson's mid-June target date for complete derestriction. I hope he delays that a bit.
More importantly
@mjr have you booked your jab yet?
If my maths is right and the 'system' sticks to its current interpretation of 12 weeks, the average gap will be about 10 weeks.
The effectiveness against disease of one dose of any of the three vaccines is over 80% (aiui). This effectiveness goes up and its effect is given an extended life by the second dose (and a longer gap has a beneficial effect).
10 weeks after 12 Apr is 21 Jun. Anything happening 'no earlier than' that day?
My estimates are that by 21 Jun 48M will have received their first dose and of those 31M will have received their second dose as well. There'll be about 5M adults (18-25s) left to 'do'.
If the effectiveness of the vaccine to prevent transmission is better than Warwick University modellers' pessimistic expectation, the UK should be very close to heard community (why does CycleChat do that to that expression?) by the end of June (21 Jun + 7 days). Assumes no significant impact from emerging VoC and continued sensible restraint on behaviour.
