COVID Vaccine !

[marinyork]

I'd say that a key action is to engage those communities who are, for whatever reasons, found to be more hesitant and offer them factual, consumable and persuasive communications, either directly or through community leaders. This will have no significant effect on the main figures and the 'end of July' 'offered' target. But we owe it to those elements in society.

Some quite good stuff, so in this county and this city vaccination centres or temporary ones have been set up in mosques.

Whenever PHE publishes the more detailed stuff by area and subgroups or other data comes out it can be quite worrying. Take up as low as 50% in some areas in some ethnic groups such as black. These are amongst over 70s, CEVs and UHCs. Israel has talked about the next stage of their campaign may run up against lower vaccinations in younger age groups and people expect it to be harder here. If take up is so low in the higher risk groups for people who are black in particular places then will the percentages be even lower when you get down the age groups? If so then very worrying.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I wish the politicians would stop dancing around the 2nd jab slowdown. They will hit the over 50s target likely, but it's what happens after that that is more worrying.

Not sure I've seen "politicians dancing around the 2nd jab slowdown", in the first place, before 'stopping' - got a link?
As I've sought to show with figures, there will be an increasing reduction in 'first jab rate' but that will, as you've suggested, kick in after the JCVI Gps 1-9 have been all given their first dose (estimating 32M, less unable/unwilling).
By my calculations at 400k per day (first or second doses), we should reach the 32M first dose figure by 4 Apr, with about 2.6M second doses already given. Increasingly in April, and all of May and June, nearly all the vaccinations will be second doses. Think this is what you mean by "the 2nd jab slowdown".
I suspect that the first jabs in latter half of April and in May will go to under 50s in specific employments. I think there's going to be direction from JCVI in combination with the government (criteria moving from clinical risk of illness to likelihood of catching, with politico-economic undertones) early next month.
The first doses will have crept up to 38M by end June. For July most (80+%) of the jabs will be first doses again and this will mean about 10M more first jabs - which should mean that all UK adults wishing to be vaccinated will have received their first dose (assumes 90% overall acceptance).

 

[JBGooner]

Public Health Scotland study just published shows the AstraZeneca jab reducing covid hospital admissions by 94% and the Pfizer jab by 85%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600
I wonder why the AZ jab is more effective. That seems to run counter to the trials. Still, great news

 

[coldash]

Public Health Scotland study just published shows the AstraZeneca jab reducing covid hospital admissions by 94% and the Pfizer jab by 85%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600
I wonder why the AZ jab is more effective. That seems to run counter to the trials. Still, great news

I believe that the Pfizer jab was given first to the most at risk in care homes so it isn’t a straight forward comparison

 

[mjr]

Non-pharmaceutical Interventions - I thought 'NPI' might pique your interest: thank you for not disappointing me.

Thanks for the admission of trolling, even if not an apology. Maybe you could avoid it in future.

'inter alia' is a Latin phrase which is in common English usage - please add it to your vocab. et cetera.

Not amongst us plebs, it ain't. Using "et cetera" instead of "and so on" gets you marked as a wannabe Etonian. Let's keep to English, as we've had posts in other languages removed before.

There are more than 5 months to the end of July so I don't think there's any urgency that "Hancock should act now".

Sorry for believing your repeated assumption and implied assertion that 400k/day is necessary as the basis for these calculations. I haven't time to make independent calculations now.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Here's the PH Scotland EAVE II report:
https://www.publichealthscotland.sc...-in-risk-of-covid-19-admissions-to-hospitals/
In the first month of vaccinations Scotland received about 500k Pfizer and 100k Oxford-AZ. These doses will be the 'first jabs' which will have been administered and had 21 days to have effect (so mostly Pfizer, as @coldash has said). The numbers in the study is a decent sized cohort so we might have some confidence in the conclusions.

 

[lazybloke]

The covidiots next door have been having people over and in the house for weeks. The single grandparent is fair enough as a support bubble, but the other parents pop in for hours at a time, and the grown-up children, and the grandchildren, and the friends...

Public Health Scotland study just published shows the AstraZeneca jab reducing covid hospital admissions by 94% and the Pfizer jab by 85%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600
I wonder why the AZ jab is more effective. That seems to run counter to the trials. Still, great news

Wasn't there a story in the last week that the Pfizer efficacy had been overestimated, due to some data of infections being 'mislaid' during the clinical trials?

Pretty sure I heard it on Beeb radio over the weekend, or possibly LBC, but can't find any mention of the story from a quick google.
Can anyone verify?

 

[nickyboy]

Thanks for the admission of trolling, even if not an apology. Maybe you could avoid it in future.

Not amongst us plebs, it ain't. Using "et cetera" instead of "and so on" gets you marked as a wannabe Etonian. Let's keep to English, as we've had posts in other languages removed before.

Sorry for believing your repeated assumption and implied assertion that 400k/day is necessary as the basis for these calculations. I haven't time to make independent calculations now.

Almost all the words used in English language are foreign. From Texel, via Germany, France, Italy, Scandinavia.

Even I, a comp kid who didn't go to university knows what "inter alia" means and, on occasions, use it

Maybe we shouldn't use derailleur. Call it a bike gear change thingy instead?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Maybe we shouldn't use derailleur. Call it a bike gear change thingy instead?

As English is at core a Germanic dialect, can I suggest the German word for Derailleur: "Umwerfer" Literally "Thrower-over" which I think describes it perfectly.

 

[Pale Rider]

gets you marked as a wannabe Etonian.

What's wrong with that?

The war was won, inter alia, on the playing fields of Eton.

 

[nickyboy]

As English is at core a Germanic dialect, can I suggest the German word for Derailleur: "Umwerfer" Literally "Thrower-over" which I think describes it perfectly.

That's far too short to be a real German word. You're making it up

 

[Ajax Bay]

The Pfizer efficacy from the clinical trials (complete in November) was estimated at 94% 7 days after 2 doses, 21 days apart. The research @JBGooner noted was effectiveness after the first dose (only), after 21 days.
Nearly all those who received a first dose before 21 Dec would have received a second dose. Anyone vaccinated (first dose) after 20 Dec will have been moved to the 12 week gap protocol. Edit: I have looked at the data shared in the paper in a little more detail. The numbers in the Oxford-AZ vaccinated cohort (who made the 28-34 days by 14 Feb) are small (cf those who had Pfizer) and I'm a bit surprised by the 95% CI quoted. Reports like these will be coming thick and fast, from now on. Whatever it reinforced the UK 'bet' to extend the gap to 12 weeks to get the 88% most vulnerable jabbed up.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key-outputs/scottish-vaccine-roll-out-working-data-suggests
Pre-print: https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/scotland_firstvaccinedata_preprint.pdf
"Findings: The first dose of the Pfizer vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% CI 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. [NB 21 days plus 7 days mean time infection to hospitalisation]. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the Oxford-AZ vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99).
"Implications: We provide compelling evidence that the two COVID-19 vaccines currently being used in the UK vaccination programme substantially reduce the risk of COVID-19 related hospital admissions in the population who are at highest risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes."
Very promising news.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The war was won, inter alia, on the playing fields of Eton.

OT: () Not sure about that. Got any evidence? Think that there were a fair few plebians who 'helped' the 'win', and who lost.

 

[Andy in Germany]

What's wrong with that?

The war was won, inter alia, on the playing fields of Eton.

The Russian army was trained in Eaton?

 

[vickster]

The Russian army was trained in Eaton?

Etonskigrad