COVID Vaccine !

[lane]

I see Boris is talking about another Jab in the autumn. This is going to be a real marathon if it takes several months to vaccinate everybody and two doses it may never stop but carry on all year and all next year. I can see my getting the vaccine in April, top up June, another jab maybe Dec and then another Feb. Will it be once a year jab like flu or will we need two a year?

 

[mjr]

But that has to be divvied up between 440 odd million people in the EU. Vaccinations per 100,000 is a better measure?

As with case and death measures, whether to scale and what against is very debatable. After all, the vulnerable and potential superspreaders are most important to get vaccinated and there are not fixed numbers per thousand.

 

[johnblack]

I see Boris is talking about another Jab in the autumn. This is going to be a real marathon if it takes several months to vaccinate everybody and two doses it may never stop but carry on all year and all next year. I can see my getting the vaccine in April, top up June, another jab maybe Dec and then another Feb. Will it be once a year jab like flu or will we need two a year?

I suppose it will depend on how the virus develops and more importantly until we know how good the vaccines have been in preventing hospitalisations, that kind of data isn't really going to be available until the gen. pub. are allowed back out.

 

[lane]

WHO recommend AZ is used for over 65s

 

[PK99]

WHO recommend AZ is used for over 65s

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56011981

 

[mjr]

Only over 65s? Or is that BBC report misleading?

 

[IaninSheffield]

I guess folks have prolly seen this already, but if not ...
mademechuckle

View: https://youtu.be/CjzZOM6kGZg

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Only over 65s? Or is that BBC report misleading?

WHO's over 65's comment is as follows:

"The WHO also says the vaccine can be used in people aged over 65, which some countries have advised against."

Quote from the BBC link.

 

[Ajax Bay]

It's a different measure. The rhetoric in the UK is that the EU has completely failed to get people vaccinated - so I was surprised to discover that it has actually done more than the UK. As I've said before, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon, and nobody will be safe until everyone is safe.

UK = >19%. Average of the 27 nations comprising the EU = <4% (percentage of population). Great that those nations are cracking on (noone safe till all safe).
WHO "covid-19-vaccine-race-we-either-win-together-or-lose-together" statement

I see Boris is talking about another Jab in the autumn.

We don't have evidence of the level of protection several months after the second dose, even if variants of virus don't make a difference (intuition suggests they will). Our experience of vaccinating against flu is that an annual dose is required. And an autumn jab is worth planning for - which is what the government is doing. The CureVac mRNA vaccine will be ready by then and will be manufactured here and a lot cheaper than the Pfizer one. Aiui, mRNA vaccines can be adapted quicker to the 'latest' variant, but there are experts around who can confirm that or otherwise.

Only over 65s? Or is that BBC report misleading?

This is the WHO saying 'over 65s as well' (subliminally (and rightly) dissing Macron's "quasi-inefficacie" message. The WHO draws on the same scientific rationale if not trial evidence support: "The WHO said even though there was a small number of over 65s in the trials, other studies showed older people had a nearly identical immune response to younger adults so the vaccine should be used."
I though the most interesting element from the BBC report was the support offered by the WHO to the UK's decision to extend the gap between first and second doses.
"Based on the current evidence, WHO SAGE recommends that the vaccine should be administered in two doses with an interval of between four and 12 weeks." [the WHO] advises, saying a longer gap was "associated with greater vaccine efficacy" and mean it would reach more people.
I hope this advice will mean that 10 weeks worth more people around the world get an interim level of protection earlier than otherwise.

 

[Ajax Bay]

PM at Wed 10 Feb briefing:
"I have no doubts that the vaccines will get better and better at being able to cover every variant. But the plan at the moment is to continue to accelerate the roll-out of the present vaccine for all groups. And we're aiming for all JCVI groups 1-9 by the end of April."
Note this is not the same as previous aspirations, which were Hancock's 'the end of May' - which I criticised as unduly pessimistic and unchallenging.
Some may recall that a while ago I shared an estimated date to complete enough first vaccinations to give all JCVI Gps 1-9 their first dose: 30 April.

I said (on current jab rate and resumption of second dose delivery at 12 weeks):
by 15 Mar (Groups 5, 6 and 7 - O/60s).
Then 6M (first jabs) for the next 28 days will do about 2/3rds of Groups 8 (4.4M) and 9 (4.7M)
After mid April, first dose rate estimate might be 1.25Mpw, so we might hope that Group 9 (the last on the JCVI list) might be complete by 30 Apr.
Note: The figures for Groups 5, 7, 8 and 9 will be over-estimates as the actual size of each group will be reduced by the numbers already vaccinated in Groups 4 and 6 - which means these dates are conservative rather than optimistic estimates.
I have not included any 'pessimism bias'

 

[srw]

UK = >19%. Average of the 27 nations comprising the EU = <4% (percentage of population).

UK 13 million. EU 17 million. It's a different measure that tells you something different - that the EU is better in absolute terms at giving vaccines than the UK government will admit.

Rule number 1 of statistics - always compare.

Rule number 2 - the best measure is usually a relative one. Percentage of population is the best measure.

Rule number 3 - other measures may well tell you other things of interest.

 

[lane]

Group six, which the government has now confirmed will include all those who need a steroid inhaler or tablets for asthma, will be vaccinated after healthy over-65s but before anyone younger than that without health conditions.

Previously, as discussed on here this was not confirmed or clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56012530

I know @Julia9054 was interested in this

 

[Julia9054]

Group six, which the government has now confirmed will include all those who need a steroid inhaler or tablets for asthma, will be vaccinated after healthy over-65s but before anyone younger than that without health conditions.

Previously, as discussed on here this was not confirmed or clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56012530

I know @Julia9054 was interested in this

Thank you!

 

[lane]

Perhaps @Ajax Bay will come along and tell us when group 6 can expect ro be vaccinated I am assuming sometime in March maybe?

 

[Ajax Bay]

BLUF @lane : JCVI Gp 6 start properly no later than 26 Feb.
The major effort this week is going into sweeping up the hesitancy and other availability issues in the care homes, the non-NHS health workers (poor take-up) and the less mobile Gp 4 CEV cohort. Local primary care is turning itself out (as in 'inside out') to get these elements done (or at least offered) by 14 Feb (so it can be reported on 15 Feb). Since primary care have the best contacts and insight of all the Gp 6 individuals (adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group), once the Gp 4 CEV cohort is 'done', their focus can turn to Gp 6.
Finishing off the Gp 4 over 70s is just rolling on: the 'father of the house' of our pub ride group received his last week. Sensibly the programme is seamlessly moving on to Gp 5 (over 65s): our audax grandee in Gp 5 had theirs on Monday (Devon) - arm still a bit sore (Pfizer). That will take max 10 days so Gp 6 should start in earnest no later than 26 Feb. I suspect that primary care, drawing on their experience of the Gp 4 CEV challenge, will actually adopt a concurrent approach to Gps 5 (3.4M) and 6 (2.2M).
HTH