COVID Vaccine !

[BoldonLad]

I did not admit my health issues online for about 20 years.

hmm.. but, then again, I doubt you are a prolific FB poster either

I would assume (perhaps foolishly) that none of us would like to see a "black market" in Vaccine Slots, but, I do accept if the objective is to vaccinate everyone, ultimately, the same end will be achieved, with or without queue jumping.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Deciding a random MP can have the vaccine to show leadership is a very poor argument indeed. Have you any evidence that he either represents a constituency with low take up or is a leader among communities which have a poor take up. He was a middle aged white male, hardly likely to be seem as a leader or influencer among the demographic that has been shown to be vaccine hesitant (which you have previously documented in detail). I don't even know what party he represents - are you defending him because of his party?

Please read what I said*. I have not decided "a random MP can have the vaccine to show leadership": I just pointed out the potential leadership benefit, which I don't think is a "very poor argument indeed" (bit strong, don't you think?). I have not gone 'looking' for this story. I have absolutely NO IDEA the skin shade of this MP and, like you, have no idea which party he belongs to, nor what his constituency is.
*Edit: I said: "I think we should not denigrate the 'leadership' aspect of a local MP taking the vaccine. Communities vary and elders/leaders leading by example are valuable in those who might otherwise refuse."

 

[lane]

How many people in reality however out of 67m?

No idea. Probably not that many.

 

[srw]

They use left over Pfizer doses rather than wasting them is my understanding from a friend who has been vaccinated (she’d be in group 6 I believe). She has done at least 4 shifts and has been a very active volunteer since last spring (doing lots of shopping for shielders etc)

I don't understand why non clinical non frontline nhs staff who work at home are being called in and not just being used to mop up and avoid waste?

One of my colleagues - nothing to do with the NHS and not a volunteer - got a call from his GP surgery to say "If you're here in 5 minutes it's yours, otherwise it's going to be tipped down the sink." He might just scrape into priority group 9 (over-50).

I've got no problem with that - it's a sensible use of a scarce resource. Better to give it to someone than to nobody, and if you know at the close of the working day you've got to find someone to give it to it makes sense to find someone close and able-bodied who can nip down quickly.

 

[vickster]

One of my colleagues - nothing to do with the NHS and not a volunteer - got a call from his GP surgery to say "If you're here in 5 minutes it's yours, otherwise it's going to be tipped down the sink." He might just scrape into priority group 9 (over-50).

I've got no problem with that - it's a sensible use of a scarce resource. Better to give it to someone than to nobody, and if you know at the close of the working day you've got to find someone to give it to it makes sense to find someone close and able-bodied who can nip down quickly.

How did they select him over someone much higher up the groups?

 

[srw]

How did they select him over someone much higher up the groups?

Probably a combination of address and randomisation. "Receptionist, get some arms into the surgery PDQ" is probably as far as the instructions went.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Is there a policy on volunteers working at vaccination centers getting vaccinated. There was an MP on the news the other day - in his 40s - getting his. Working at a vaccination centre and said it was to encourage others to get the vaccine.

Not a policy that they should get vaccinated, but there is a practice whereby people volunteering at a vaccination site may get offered the vaccine to use up "surplus" at the end of a day. I know a 60 year old who had the vaccine last week because she has been volunteering to help with managing people visiting the vaccination site. She was asked at the end of the day if she wanted it.

Nothing wrong with that imo.

 

[Rusty Nails]

This is true, but, would it not be more fair to have a transparent "reserve list" open to all, and not just those "in the know"?

Much less fun for the curtain twitchers, however.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Heard (World at 1) an expert reflecting on the potential impact of not giving a second dose.
I said 10 days ago:
I do not discount the possibility that, based on the science of course, the 12 weeks may be extended. If at the 8 week gap point antibody levels remain as high as they had been found to be after 4 weeks, then there's clearly a case to be made for giving a million a second dose at 12 weeks and another million a 4 week extension. I would be amazed if the data capture programme was not ready to roll. The first cohort who were given a dose after 20 Dec have just hit the 4 week point and a lot of NHS staff are in that cohort so testing will be logistically easy. There will be a communications challenge with that, but the JCVI and MHRA were pretty robust with the '12 week gap' decision and so they have the palmares.
In a month you'd be able to give an extra 6M their first dose (eg by Easter). Assumes daily average dose delivery rate of 400Kpd (and supplies to allow that).
Those who were given a dose after 20 Dec will have been given a date 12 weeks later (eg 14 Mar).
14M by 15 Feb (<1M having had second dose as well) if we hit the stated target (NB 'offer' so I've taken 1M off the quoted 15M)
Another 11M by 14 Mar (total 27M - half adult population ( 54M over 16)
If then start giving second doses to all those who got their first dose after 20 Dec, 200kpd to them and rate of first dose drops to (about) 200kpd.
By Easter (6 Apr) on current plan: +4.6M.
By Easter (6 Apr) on 'delay second dose by 4 more weeks' plan: +9M. Total = 36M (66% adult population - getting towards herd immunity, maybe).

 

[tom73]

Is there a policy on volunteers working at vaccination centers getting vaccinated. There was an MP on the news the other day - in his 40s - getting his. Working at a vaccination centre and said it was to encourage others to get the vaccine.

Even the archbishop of Canterbury get one last week for volunteering to "help out" his own clergy working in the hospital.
Typical church anything going and they take it.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Even the archbishop of Canterbury get one last week for volunteering to "help out" his own clergy working in the hospital.
Typical church anything going and they take it.

Leadership. Infuencer for and of Anglican and Christian communities across the world. And not just taking the vaccine but encouraging people across the world to volunteer to help - like you, Tom, for example (I know you've said you've volunteered already - chapeau - so you don't need nudging from Lambeth Palace). Try to take a less parochial outlook and assess other people's decisions with a little more charity; you might find it therapeutic. Justin Welby is 62 btw (Group 7).

 

[Ajax Bay]

AstraZeneca had described the German media [Handelsblatt and Bild] reports [only 8% effective in over 65s] as “completely incorrect”. But then the reports seemed to go on top say that there was little evidence either way?

[AZ said "completely incorrect" - Apparently based on nothing and, well, they would say that, wouldn't they? I thought it unremarkable, but I did give the link so anyone interested can read it, which is more than certain source-hiders on here do.

"well, they would say that, wouldn't they?" Yes they would because it's complete rubbish, as the world has heard today (go look).
To tie this up for the doubters, I think the Reuters reporter in the Monday article @mjr shared will get a good talking to: they failed to check the Handelsblatt unsourced story:
"Nach Informationen des Handelsblatts aus Koalitionskreisen rechnet die Bundesregierung nur mit einer Wirksamkeit von acht Prozent bei den über 65-Jährigen."
[According to Handelsblatt from coalition circles, the Federal Government expects only an eight percent effectiveness among the over-65s.) Wikipedia
As for Bild: " Its nearest English-language stylistic and journalistic equivalent is often considered to be the British national newspaper The Sun, the second-highest-selling European tabloid newspaper (Bild is Number 1) - probably doesn't do maths per se. Wiipedia
(Full disclosure) - I am a Reuters shareholder.)
Reuters Health (today, Tuesday): "There is no data that would suggest efficacy of only 8% among older people for AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine, the German health ministry said on Tuesday in response to corresponding media reports."

Has 'Playbook' got an 'agenda' - I don't know? But seems a balanced, informed comment to me.

 

[mjr]

"well, they would say that, wouldn't they?" Yes they would because it's complete rubbish, as the world has heard today (go look).
To tie this up for the doubters, I think the Reuters reporter in the Monday article @mjr shared will get a good talking to: they failed to check the Handelsblatt unsourced story:

I went look. As of now, the Reuters story remains up, uncorrected and unretracted. We will see. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-ger-idUSKBN29U2D9

"Has 'Playbook' got an 'agenda' - I don't know? But seems a balanced, informed comment to me.

What is "Playbook"? You seem to be posting unattributed stuff again.

 

[Ajax Bay]

You asked about data from Israel, @mjr . Here's a fresh report (Times of Israel).
In the 7 days immediately after their 2nd Pfizer vaccine dose (~21 day gap), only 20 of 128,000 Israelis got COVID-19 (reported by Israel’s Maccabi Healthcare Services). This represents 0.015%, indicating vaccine is hitting the 95% efficacy rate predicted by Pfizer clinical trials.
Leading immunologist Cyrille Cohen (a Bar Ilan University professor) hailing ‘exciting results’ said that among the general unvaccinated population (several million), around 0.65% are infected in a given week. So this can be used as an albeit imperfect 'control' group (but the best they can do). And doing the maths that works out as just >95% effectiveness.
Also noted that of those 20, none ran a high fever (>38.5oC) nor were any hospitalised (for COVID-19). Maccabi researcher noted that this may be an indicator that the vaccine prevents serious illness even when people are infected, but that it is impossible to know what trajectory their symptoms/illness would have taken without the vaccine.

Vaccine efficacy is the percentage reduction of disease in a vaccinated group of people compared to an unvaccinated group in ideal conditions (RCT eg Phase 3 trials).
Vaccine effectiveness is the ability of vaccine to prevent outcomes of interest in the “real world”
Primary care settings
Less stringent eligibility
Assessment of relevant health outcomes
Clinically relevant treatment selection and follow-up duration
Assessment of relevant adverse events
Adequate sample size to detect clinically relevant differences
Intention to treat analysis

 

[mjr]

You asked about data from Israel, @mjr . Here's a fresh report (Times of Israel).

The report is interesting, but it seems the data is not published yet.