Coronavirus outbreak

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roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid. We are all going to die sooner or later

No serious expert disputes the numbers. They're based on excess deaths, and are very obvious from mortality data.

The alternative method, which you quote, gives about 45,000 deaths. Some people will take longer than 28 days to die, some will never be diagnosed, and very few would have died anyway of something else within 28 days of a positive test.

By all means challenge if we have the right approach, but the order of magnitude of death figures are not seriously in dispute.
 

BoldonLad

Not part of the Elite
Location
South Tyneside

Yes, that is pretty much as I thought, ie, one of the few "Western Democracies" not to be having to implement even stronger "lock downs", is Sweden, which did not actually "lock down" in the first place. hmmm.....
 
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I'll just dig out my oxygen tent and my inflatable chimp. What the fark is the use of stopping people from shopping for a new telly if everyone is still going to work / school to sit indoors for 8 hours with strangers. Even if the r rate comes down it will only increase again, it's all pointless the disease is here to stay either live with it or we might as well all slit our wrists because we will all be farked mentally and socially if the government is going to tell us all we can do is work and sleep (and then only in your primary residence regardless that you might own anywhere else) total lockdown is sheer stupidity, a bit like Brexit, just another way of farking the country and making the rich richer and the poor poorer.
 

BoldonLad

Not part of the Elite
Location
South Tyneside
No serious expert disputes the numbers. They're based on excess deaths, and are very obvious from mortality data.

The alternative method, which you quote, gives about 45,000 deaths. Some people will take longer than 28 days to die, some will never be diagnosed, and very few would have died anyway of something else within 28 days of a positive test.

By all means challenge if we have the right approach, but the order of magnitude of death figures are not seriously in dispute.

I am not disputing the death figures, I am querying if the the measures to "save the NHS", "beat Covid" etc are producing a worse situation that would have occurred without such measures, or, with different ACHIEVABLE measures. A case of "the cure is worse than the disease" in layman's terms (which I am by the way, ie a layman).

I am no Behavioural Scientist, but, anecdotal I know, in my life experience people (in general) will only behave is a way demanded/requested by authority if they can actually see the usefulness of such behaviour, in their own daily lives (including, of course, their own social circle).
 
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BoldonLad

Not part of the Elite
Location
South Tyneside
Could have fooled me

. We have approximately 60,000 deaths where the deceased tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death, that is not the same thing as dying OF Covid.

That is disputing the CAUSE, not the quantity.

To the best of my knowledge, actual deaths, from all causes, this year (2020) so far, are not significantly different from that to be expected from five year averages. No, I don't recall the source, probably The BBC.
 
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tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Looking like another game of bullsh..t bingo is on the cards.
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If I thought lockdown will work I would be all for it. But it wont, it didn't the first time. It's just postponing the inevitable for some people whilst making everyone's life intolerable. Whilst ever they allow people to leave their homes at all, and allow any travel between countries then it doesn't matter how low the r number drops it will always increase the minute the restrictions are lifted. As I said in March the only solution would be to go into a situation where everyone is forced to remain in their own house for a month with no exit, nurses and hospital staff to remain onsite, the army or police to deliver food to households in hazmat suits, it would have to be worldwide. We are going to have to accept covid is here, there will probably be no miracle vaccine or cure, in the same vein as the flu as no REAL vaccine or cure. Yes I know that is comparing it to flu which will upset the covidista but it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year... its nature something will always come along and cull populations, hate to say it but modern medicine does too good a job at keeping people who have reached the end of their natural lives, alive, and then we get upset when nature comes along with a new way of thwarting the effort.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
it's odd that flu deaths are way down this year...

I mean, there's a whole lot of nonsense in that post, which would take pages to refute.

But this in particular is a real doozy.

Has it occurred to you *why* cases of an infectious respiratory disease are way down during a worldwide attempt to minimise transmission of an infectious respiratory disease?
 
Why would you find that odd? People (generally) have been working from home, social distancing, wearing masks and washing their hands. These are not measures that magically work against one virus and not another.
That's funny, I didn't think it was working against covid!

The point I was making is that if you take the average number of deaths at this time of year normally logged against flu, and see that they are reduced by x, then the fact that the number killed off by covid as risen by x + y doesn't mean that the number of excess deaths as risen by z. It's all very well reporting 326 deaths a day but if there are normally 300 deaths a day through flu and there are now only 50 then it is excess deaths that need reporting. There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

I would also suggest that the majority of people in hospital with covid, either work in the hospital or have caught and tested positive in hospital.
 
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