Coronavirus outbreak

[HMS_Dave]

Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible. All the countries that are cited to have been "successful" have achieved is to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable. Their populations are still highly vulnerable to a tidal wave of infection. The countries that took only some, but not extreme measures to keep the numbers down are now faring better because the virus simply cannot transmit effectively once a substantial proportion of the population have already had it. If you take the USA for example, with nearly 7 million officially recorded cases, that will be a gross undercount of the real numbers. Quite possibly the true infection rate could have been 20 times higher, in which case you might now have 130 million immune citizens out of a 330 million population.

Yes, but at a high cost. Malaysia has been in it longer than we have. They never really had a spike at all. They have around 130 deaths. They never gambled with thousands of lives, and Sweden MAY have hit herd immunity, but predictably is likely to gamble with thousands of more lives i suppose. Meaningless statistics when you don't know the people...

Oh and here, https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/rip-rich-rowe-ywbm/backers#start This fella in his early 30's was a victim of the virus. Early 30's. He worked with my mate... I know the Daily Mail are hitting this hard about it only killing people who are already on their death beds, but that isn't the full story, predictably...

We have been shown there is another way that keeps people alive and keeps the economy largely open. But of course, lets just carry on with Matt Hancock and Dido Harding's pathetic excuses...

 

[marinyork]

Id cards needed then

The app is coming in this week.

8 calls is a shock. I think it was 2 persons in 3 months originally and then that many per week and yesterday a lot more.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Because Sweden is in all probability, now at the tail end of it's pandemic, and is unlikely to see any further major waves of disease. They will have a far higher immunity rate than those countries that tried to keep the infected numbers as low as possible.

This is obvious nonsense.

There have been more deaths and cases here than Sweden.

Yet we're entering a second wave.

Our immunity rate must be higher than Sweden's.

Sweden has less immunity protection from a second wave than we do.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I know the Daily Mail are hitting this hard about it only killing people who are already on their death beds, but that isn't the full story, predictably...

Indeed. The average loss of years of life from each covid death is ~10.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Why do people keep mentioning Sweden as a glowing example of covid management

Because it allows them to believe in a story of what they wish to be true, rather than face reality.

 

[AuroraSaab]

I don't think there is much to be gained from comparing dissimilar countries, whether Sweden or NZ, to the UK. They have populations of 6 million, in much bigger areas, and their cities are much smaller. Sweden has 50% of households that are single person households. Both have fewer multigenerational households.

They have the population of Yorkshire spread over a vast area, with isolated communities that can be more easily locked down. By comparison, 5 million people normally use the London Tube everyday.

 

[steve292]

I think as well some people are convienently ignoring the fact that the Scandinavian countries also have a social care system in place that is effective, and efficent and hasn't been hollowed out by ten years or more of ideology driven austerity.

 

[midlife]

This is obvious nonsense.

There have been more deaths and cases here than Sweden.

Yet we're entering a second wave.

Our immunity rate must be higher than Sweden's.

Sweden has less immunity protection from a second wave than we do.

I think Stockholm and London have about the same infection rate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...kholm-and-london-study-shows-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think Stockholm and London have about the same infection rate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...kholm-and-london-study-shows-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

You'll note that I referred to countries, not cities or regions.

 

[mjr]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1306651479995027456

 

[Wobblers]

You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.

No. I don't. There were an average of 2 deaths per day at the start of August. Now it is above 20. Following this doubling every eight days means it will be above 60/day by the end of the month. This, note, is independent of treatment success, as it's already in the data. We're already seeing a sharp rise in deaths.

It's important to understand the consequences of this exponential growth rate in infections we're experiencing. If this continues, we'll be seeing 100,000 infections every day by mid October - and over 300 fatalities. The NHS will be overwhelmed by the start of November.

Furthermore, even if we come up with a new treatment regime that half the fatality rate, that advance will be reversed in only eight days. And the best treatment yet found, using steroids, only saw a 30% improvement. Hoping that some magic course of treatment will be the solution is not a viable strategy. Getting the R value to below one is.

 

[rualexander]

I don't think there is much to be gained from comparing dissimilar countries, whether Sweden or NZ, to the UK. They have populations of 6 million, in much bigger areas, and their cities are much smaller. Sweden has 50% of households that are single person households. Both have fewer multigenerational households.

They have the population of Yorkshire spread over a vast area, with isolated communities that can be more easily locked down. By comparison, 5 million people normally use the London Tube everyday.

Sweden has a population of 10 million.

 

[Wobblers]

For sure, but it's a reasonable topic to discuss here, no?
No country other than NZ with its unique geographical position has stamped out the virus. Every country is working towards an "optimal" balance between opening up society and economy and Covid deaths. I'm just interested to hear where folk think that optimal number is
Fwiw I think it's more than we are experiencing now but less than the 1000/day we did experience. Probably North of 100. It's a difficult topic but this question must be central to every country's response, although few governments would admit it

It's not a straightforward issue. For instance, 100 deaths/day also comes with at least 100 people/day left with long term , possibly permanent disabilities. They'll require expensive long term treatment. Furthermore, it'll leave something in the region of 1000+ people/day left with long term fatigue (post viral syndrome). They'll need anything between 1 month to 1 year before they can go back to work.

On the other hand, lockdown will result in a damaged economy, lost jobs and likely an increase in mental health problems. Delayed medical treatment will cost lives, and a shrunken economy will only support a shrunken NHS - that'll cost further lives. No one knows what the best balance between locking down the economy and allowing CV19 to spread is to minimise the number of deaths - there's just to many unknowns to be able to guess.

As I said before, lockdown is the bluntest of blunt instruments. We need to avoid its use, if possible. Test, trace and quarantine is the best option: NZ and China have demonstrated that it can be used to suppress virus transmission whilst minimising lockdown. This is why watching the mediocre performance of test & trace here has been so frustrating. We need to do better. |Testing has to be quicker, we need to trace more people and more people have to actually isolate themselves. The fines announced go some way - but it's all stick, and no carrot! £500 to those in low paid jobs and benefits isn't enough. That doesn't make up for lost earnings for most people. We need to pay more, on successful completion of the quarantine period. Expensive perhaps, but rather less so than lockdown.

 

[RoadRider400]

Furthermore, even if we come up with a new treatment regime that half the fatality rate, that advance will be reversed in only eight days. And the best treatment yet found, using steroids, only saw a 30% improvement. Hoping that some magic course of treatment will be the solution is not a viable strategy. Getting the R value to below one is.

Plus if you have new treatments and can prevent some of the deaths. You are likely going to be increasing the number of people in hospital. Anybody near death who pulls through will probably need a reasonable stint recovering in a bed.

 

[tom73]

The government has slowly washed it's hands of any part of the virus response. They only had PHE the only part of NHS in direct control of government left. So Replaced it with the Dido horror show. Now as the brown stuff starts to hit the fan. They can't face us and expect a HCP and a scientist to take the flack for government failings. All ready for "they told us you can't have Christmas"
If trust is not rebuilt quick we've totally lost any hope of holding back this virus and yet more personal and economic damage. Sadly it's looking like the stable door is not just open but has fell off. It's a public health emergency and won't go away by magic. This stuff matters people's lives matter.