Coronavirus outbreak

[pawl]

They're working fine as there's no pusher-off; riders start with one foot on the ground and are counted down from a 2 metre+ distance, usually from a parked car.

It's the same for hillclimbs, although there's a 'stick' approach which is being tried for these - sanitised between riders*:

View attachment 547740

Note: we've not tried this. My son starts his hill-climbing season this Sunday and we'll see how it works. He may just let go and fall over!

That’s a bit novel A crutch to help the rider get up the hill

 

[PK99]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.

The number of Covid related deaths appear to have remained resolutely low and in the context of the 'usual' 2000 UK deaths per day figures of 10-20 Covid related deaths a day are pretty much negligible.

Hospitalised patient numbers are also very low. The most recent data I can find shows that just over 170000 beds are available in the NHS UK (April 20) with just under 1000 currently occupied by Covid patients (0.6%) - as per the link above.

Outside of FB and forums my experiences from conversations with people I know suggest that the view is the media are whipping up hysteria for no valid reason.

Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.

The linked charts are indeed interesting.

The plot of Cases per day ie tested positive looks strange to anyone numerate.

It looks like an artificially truncated peak from March to May - natural phenomena do not look like that.

Going back to Uni Lab days, it looks like a data set where the instrument used topped out and was unable to measure the peak.

A key implication of that is comparing current case numbers to March to May numbers is simply wrong.

The plot of testing, confirms this to be the case.
Testing was at capacity and only hospitalised cases were being tested.
Clearly the "wild in the population" numbers were far higher than the "tested positive" numbers.

Even more notable, is that the uptick in July of "Tested positive" correlates exactly with the uptick in processed tests also in July.

This paper from May seems to confirm this analysis and puts a number to the missed cases in the truncated peak.

"New estimates suggest that the lockdown may have come at a crucial time in our struggle against the virus. According to our modelling work, published in Eurosurveillance, on day one of the lockdown, the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom was likely on the verge of exploding, with around 100,000 people being infected every day. "

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/...ions-every-day-why-uk-lockdown-came-just-time

 

[brodiej]

Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.

I really don't think the lid is being kept on the situation at all - even the PM is talking about the 2nd wave being here

The graphs on the covid dashboard give next to no useful info due to the massive variation in who got tested through the year.
You need to look at ONS data and hospital admissions etc for useful stats


View: https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039298827571202?s=19


Is a useful summary of the current situation which Christina Pagel from UCL has just put up.

ie the situation is not good but there's still some hope

 

[tom73]

From next week large chunk of business will by law have to record users details for T&T. Max fine £4000 if they don’t.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1005/pdfs/uksi_20201005_en.pdf
it looks like its download the NHS app ,use the QR code or your not coming in.
Or they can record your details as now. Either way if you don’t they are expected to refuse entry.
T & T data policy has been updated no word on data from business the business is the data controller of data collected from individuals.

 

[DCLane]

SWMBO's ward (she's on rehab wards for stroke/neurology that's also used as Covid rehab) has been freeing up beds. The first patients arrive next week and they're preparing for many more. This time there's enough pumps for her to use as a Dietitian whereas last time it was a choice about who got fed. And probably lived.

 

[Wobblers]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.

The number of Covid related deaths appear to have remained resolutely low and in the context of the 'usual' 2000 UK deaths per day figures of 10-20 Covid related deaths a day are pretty much negligible.

Hospitalised patient numbers are also very low. The most recent data I can find shows that just over 170000 beds are available in the NHS UK (April 20) with just under 1000 currently occupied by Covid patients (0.6%) - as per the link above.

Outside of FB and forums my experiences from conversations with people I know suggest that the view is the media are whipping up hysteria for no valid reason.

Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.

The most reliable source of data is the ONS surveys. They show that infections have been increasing since mid August. Hospital admissions have been increasing since early September - and remember that hospital admission typically occurs 10-14 days after infection. The reason we haven't - yet - seen an increase in deaths is that most new cases have been in the young, who're less likely to get severely ill. That, unfortunately, is now changing: the virus is now spreading to more vulnerable groups.

Indeed, both the ONS and hospital admissions show a doubling time of 8 days. It's crucial to understand the importance of this: if this continues, we will be right back to where we were just before lockdown (100,000 new infections every day) by mid October. We don't have "a lid on the situation"; we have exponential growth. With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.

Unfortunately, test and trace is not working particularly well, and only 20% of those told to self isolate actually do. Which is not surprising, many people will lose their jobs if they do - we need to be supporting those people (and not just financially) in order to deliver much needed improvements. Without improvement, I see little chance that this second wave will be quelled. I fear that the eventual death toll will be much higher than the first wave, as so many people are weary of lockdown, so are less willing to comply.

My advice, for what it's worth, is to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands, and above all avoid crowds and busy places. Stay safe!

 

[Pale Rider]

Am I the only one who has lost track of what we are supposed to be doing?

The national restrictions seem to change often, and here in the North East we now have local restrictions as well.

I am keen to be in compliance, and I think I am, but only because my current 'on the sick' lifestyle doesn't involve doing a lot of anything very much.

Covid safe, but mentally not too clever.

It would be easy to blame the government, as a lot of posters on here have done.

However, short of another even more swingeing lock down, I can't see how it would be possible to devise and publish simple rules that would do the job.

It always seemed to me inevitable cases would spike as we returned to normality, particularly the reopening of schools.

The virus is no respecter of the lifestyle we've come to expect in a mature democracy.

Which leaves me with no better answer than @McWobble:

My advice, for what it's worth, is to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands, and above all avoid crowds and busy places. Stay safe!

 

[DaveReading]

With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.

You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.

 

[Rezillo]

Some reading about where it may have come from.

Some reading about this report:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...-evolution-and-delineation-of-its-probable-s/


View: https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1306037072914866178


https://www.technologynetworks.com/...-resulted-from-laboratory-modification-340515

It is also claimed that the research institute this came from was directed by Steve Bannon until he was charged.

 

[midlife]

You need to qualify that prediction to take account of the fact that the percentage of infections that result in death is markedly less than it was six months ago.

I think that as the virus circulates more in the community the older and vulnerable members of society will come across it and the death rate will start to rise again.

Have a feeling that Boris will give us this weekend off and announce something on Sunday night.

 

[tom73]

SWMBO's ward (she's on rehab wards for stroke/neurology that's also used as Covid rehab) has been freeing up beds. The first patients arrive next week and they're preparing for many more. This time there's enough pumps for her to use as a Dietitian whereas last time it was a choice about who got fed. And probably lived.

Yep same here Mrs 73 was expecting most of this week off due to how her off duty fell. But no she was asked to be part of a rapid discharge team at our hospital. Freeing up beds, reviewing covid treatment pathways and remodelling ward space.

 

[Edwardoka]

Have a feeling that Boris will give us this weekend off and announce something on Sunday night.

... to come into effect on Friday.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

The most reliable source of data is the ONS surveys. They show that infections have been increasing since mid August. Hospital admissions have been increasing since early September - and remember that hospital admission typically occurs 10-14 days after infection. The reason we haven't - yet - seen an increase in deaths is that most new cases have been in the young, who're less likely to get severely ill. That, unfortunately, is now changing: the virus is now spreading to more vulnerable groups.

Indeed, both the ONS and hospital admissions show a doubling time of 8 days. It's crucial to understand the importance of this: if this continues, we will be right back to where we were just before lockdown (100,000 new infections every day) by mid October. We don't have "a lid on the situation"; we have exponential growth. With a typical lag from infection to death of three weeks we can expect to see a sharp rise in fatalities by the end of the month, and over 1000 deaths every day by the end of October.

Unfortunately, test and trace is not working particularly well, and only 20% of those told to self isolate actually do. Which is not surprising, many people will lose their jobs if they do - we need to be supporting those people (and not just financially) in order to deliver much needed improvements. Without improvement, I see little chance that this second wave will be quelled. I fear that the eventual death toll will be much higher than the first wave, as so many people are weary of lockdown, so are less willing to comply.

My advice, for what it's worth, is to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands, and above all avoid crowds and busy places. Stay safe!

Alongside the ONS figures, the C-19/Zoe survey, with over 4 million contributors, gives a good estimation of the current situation. In my borough* the estimate 4 weeks ago for active cases was 41. Today it is 426. They give an England-wide R number of 1.4, meaning there's a doubling every 7 days. (1.3 for Scotland and Wales. No figures for NI.)

*Lewisham, London, where the figures have been low for a while after the very big peak at the start of lockdown.

 

[fossyant]

Cases are rocketing at our Uni. Whole block of 200 have to self isolate. One student who knew they had Covid still went to classes and several parties. 9 confirmed cases now. Only takes a few idiots

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I have been selected at random for the NHS / imperial college Covid -19 wider test study. They are only testing if you currently have it. The test kit will be couriered to / from house. Think they are missing a trick as a pin prick blood test could also show if you’ve had it. Will know results within a week of test.