Coronavirus outbreak

[classic33]

Which ever way you look at this things are not going well.
Case numbers are up and growing.
Testing is all but on it's knees and no real plan how to get it back it.
Too many schools look to be demanding test results for nothing more than a cold. Not surprising as the messaging is still a mess and too many still don't understand the basics of covid. Contact tracing is still in a mess in some areas it looks to be working but still not a nationally joined up process.
Too many placers have clearly just used the" cut out and keep" covid secure poster as window dressing and done sod all else. Which is going to have to change and fast.
Hospital are starting to clear the decks and care homes are fearing the worse.
Lock downs are becoming more wide spread with more to come stay around for some time

Sadly we still have too many people just want "normal" what ever the cost and it will cost someone a life one way or the other. So guess what it's not coming soon so get use to things and get a grip.
Too many willing to trust the wackos with no real medical, scientific credit. Or my mates sisters "friend" who's friend has a friend of someone she "knows" who posted it facebook about something she's been told by her "friend" who's sister works with someone at the vets.

Oh and still have the Boris, Hancock and dido show who lost it weeks ago who still don't have a clue.

What those, and others, are going to have to get into their heads is, that whatever follows will not be the "normal" that was there before all this started.

Like it or not, there'll be no way back to where we were before.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Looking at the data in here it seems that as tests (actual) were ramped up from 1st July then positive case outcomes ramped up too. No surprise there.

The number of Covid related deaths appear to have remained resolutely low and in the context of the 'usual' 2000 UK deaths per day figures of 10-20 Covid related deaths a day are pretty much negligible.

Hospitalised patient numbers are also very low. The most recent data I can find shows that just over 170000 beds are available in the NHS UK (April 20) with just under 1000 currently occupied by Covid patients (0.6%) - as per the link above.

Outside of FB and forums my experiences from conversations with people I know suggest that the view is the media are whipping up hysteria for no valid reason.

Seems to me that tactical activities at local level are keeping a lid on the situation pretty well.

 

[tom73]

Case numbers are doubling every 8 days if we do nothing and quickly next two week really. Daily hospital admissions will be at mid march levels by next weekend and pre lockdown level early October. They may not be higher death rate but that figure is weeks behind anyway but the point is more milder cases are getting to point of not being able to manage the virus at home. In trun means more cutting back on other hospital admissions and routine work. More people having to wait for help and more quality of life effected. In turn something need's to done and done quickly.
Cases are now growing in all age groups so it's no longer the young the virus is spreading.
Cases are growing in a wider spread of areas which now includes london which has been pretty low for a good few months up to now.
I don't call "whipping up" but facts which lay behind the headline figures most media and government don't talk about.

 

[tom73]

It's not good looking good

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Case numbers are doubling every 8 days if we do nothing and quickly next two week really. Daily hospital admissions will be at mid march levels by next weekend and pre lockdown level early October. They may not be higher death rate but that figure is weeks behind anyway but the point is more milder cases are getting to point of not being able to manage the virus at home. In trun means more cutting back on other hospital admissions and routine work. More people having to wait for help and more quality of life effected. In turn something need's to done and done quickly.
Cases are now growing in all age groups so it's no longer the young the virus is spreading.
Cases are growing in a wider spread of areas which now includes london which has been pretty low for a good few months up to now.
I don't call "whipping up" but facts which lay behind the headline figures most media and government don't talk about.

What were the daily mid-March admissions numbers?

Also: the Gov' is doing lots of things imo. They seem to be on top of localised activity in hotspots, lots of testing and mooted scenarios such as total UK-wide short-term lockdown from what I can glean from the press.

 

[tom73]

Independent sage 10 point plan on how to get out this mess.
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-...ergency-plan-integrated-170920-amended-ES.pdf

 

[tom73]

What were the daily mid-March admissions numbers?

Also: the Gov' is doing lots of things imo. They seem to be on top of localised activity in hotspots, lots of testing and mooted scenarios such as total UK-wide short-term lockdown from what I can glean from the press.

Much of the government action is dealing with outbreaks and only then it's mostly down to local public health telling them of a problem.
local public health should not have to think of ways to bypass national tack and trace. Locally it's working fine mostly as it always have been long before covid. You don't set up a process outside of public health, primary care and GP's you involve them and use them to do testing. Not pay serco (who don't even use serco for health matters) and not appoint an ex phone sales CEO to head it. Remember it's not NHS T&T that's not working but Serco T&T. You don't disband the national public health body in the middle of pandemic.
Testing is much more then a numbers game. Many are still not processed in time to be of any use tack and trace wise which is what matters.
1st week of September only 9% came back quick enough.
They are still clueless at preventing them in first place which would save a lot of issues, lives and money.
They still are not following the science but cherry picking it always too little too late.
So yes the government is going lots of things sadly mostly the wrong ones.

 

[Mo1959]

Can’t help feeling this was almost bound to happen. The government were over keen to get the economy up and running too quickly. They encouraged people back to work and into public transport along with giving incentives for people to sit in restaurants. It almost feels like they are blaming the population for it all going wrong now.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Much of the government action is dealing with outbreaks and only then it's mostly down to local public health telling them of a problem.
local public health should not have to think of ways to bypass national tack and trace. Locally it's working fine mostly as it always have been long before covid. You don't set up a process outside of public health, primary care and GP's you involve them and use them to do testing. Not pay serco (who don't even use serco for health matters) and not appoint an ex phone sales CEO to head it. Remember it's not NHS T&T that's not working but Serco T&T. You don't disband the national public health body in the middle of pandemic.
Testing is much more then a numbers game. Many are still not processed in time to be of any use tack and trace wise which is what matters.
1st week of September only 9% came back quick enough.
They are still clueless at preventing them in first place which would save a lot of issues, lives and money.
They still are not following the science but cherry picking it always too little too late.
So yes the government is going lots of things sadly mostly the wrong ones.

Can you please answer the question re mid-March daily admissions rate. Having trouble finding them myself. Thanks.

 

[midlife]

 

[Chromatic]

View: https://www.scribd.com/document/475998860/The-Yan-Report#from_embed


Some reading about where it may have come from.

 

[tom73]

@SpokeyDokey looks like midlife has beaten me to it.
@Mo1959 that’s been the plan for weeks even today Boris has been blaming us for not social distancing.
Nothing do with fudge of guidelines he’s come up with or falling asleep for the start. No it‘s us all way.

 

[mjr]

View attachment 547850

Can you find one going back to mid March? I didn't and have to go now

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I can give you a geometric/epidemiological one in that once you get more than 6 people, someone can be surrounded and unable to move away without encroaching on the 2m distancing.
View attachment 547667
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packing_problem#Hexagonal_packing_of_circles

Interestingly, no maximum is given in WHO advice on small public gatherings and the general advice only says to avoid crowds and crowded places.

Maybe gov.uk are guessing that Brits are daffodils who won't quarantine if they have coughing or sneezing or have other potential covid symptoms? But then I would expect advice to allow some sort of minimum time between seeing different groups of six. As it stands, I could go spend 30 minutes in each one of my neighbours' houses talking to them, one after another with no break between, and that would be legal and not even against any gov.uk advice, despite being a really rather stupid thing to do.

In other news, Alitalia is now running "covid-free" flights. All passengers must either pass a coronavirus rapid test at the airport or present a certificate of passing a clear test in the previous 72 hours. I wonder how long until the first fake certificate or covid outbreak is linked to one of them.

You sure that doesn’t also occur with 5 people?

 

[Beebo]

The last Cobra meeting was 20th May.
what planning have the government actually done for the 2nd wave? It does seem very lax.