Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

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Am I correct... if you die more than 28 days after testing positive for Covid you don't count on the stats ?

Tell me I m wrong - because that's feckin ridiculous ! ....it would seem the average recovery is around 3 weeks....so if you take a turn for the worst - you can easily go past 28 days before crockin it ?

It's correct but it does make sense.

At the start of the outbreak, every death of someone testing positive counted as a coronavirus death. Which is reasonable, as the number of deaths being down to some other cause was very low, given the total cases were very low.

Now, however, there are over 300 000 people who've tested positive, most of them many months ago. Deaths in this population are very unlikely to be covid related overall, and there will be quite a lot, just because it's a large number of people.

A 28 day cutoff is arbitrary, but not daft.

 

[mjr]

If only they did at quickly when it matters this is more a u-turn than anything else. No doubt they will wheel out Dido to give some waffly statement as to why the case numbers magically went up.

reminds me of

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9EvAL9OQos

 

[mjr]

Am I correct... if you die more than 28 days after testing positive for Covid you don't count on the stats ?

Tell me I m wrong

It depends which stat and whether England, Scotland, ...

More detail in More or Less: Behind the Stats: Hawaiian Pizza, obesity and a second wave? http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08ncr88

Edit to add: there's a bit more in the next episode. England moved its cutoffs.

 

[mjr]

Study finds enforced face coverings associated with reduced face-touching behaviors. Which may help with control of covid
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...ferral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=072920

Shame no-one is enforcing them in England then, isn't it?

 

[kingrollo]

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It's correct but it does make sense.

At the start of the outbreak, every death of someone testing positive counted as a coronavirus death. Which is reasonable, as the number of deaths being down to some other cause was very low, given the total cases were very low.

Now, however, there are over 300 000 people who've tested positive, most of them many months ago. Deaths in this population are very unlikely to be covid related overall, and there will be quite a lot, just because it's a large number of people.

A 28 day cutoff is arbitrary, but not daft.

So you test positive for COVID - never recover - but limp on for 29 days before dying - and you don't count as a COVID death. That can't be right.

 

[tom73]

K the number no-one talks about and why it matters.
https://theconversation.com/is-the-k-number-the-new-r-number-what-you-need-to-know-140286

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/overdispersion-from-outbreaksize.html
~20% of infected people (super-spreaders) are responsible for ~80% of transmission. Around 50% are asymptomatic.

So basically allowing more options to mix and interact like schools where face coverings are not recommend is just a policy of cross your fingers and hope. Sadly I've given up hope of truly controlling this virus. The idea we are even trying to eliminate it well that ship sailed long ago.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think looking for a "right" number is probably mistaken. It's certainly more meaningful than counting all deaths however long after a positive test.

There are several different measures, notably excess deaths as well as this stat, and they need to be taken in totality.

 

[tom73]

So you test positive for COVID - never recover - but limp on for 29 days before dying - and you don't count as a COVID death. That can't be right.

Over all excess death rate matter more and show's a much better picture. But it's not a simple catchy media snap shot which is what governments like have. Counties are free to set the cut off as no international agreed standard is in place. I believe our cut off is a lot longer than some.
Meanwhile New Zealand has just sadly had it's first covid death since May. Now that's new's we can only dream of seeing.

 

[tom73]

Shame no-one is enforcing them in England then, isn't it?

More a case of the one's who can wear one not giving a fig about the health of others and just need to get a grip.

 

[tom73]

SAGE aren't holding out much hope for universities staying open much past November and not without large outbreaks around Christmas and then in the New Year. They don't sound sold on Test and Trace being up to the job to control any university outbreaks
https://assets.publishing.service.g...mission_Associated_with_Higher_Education_.pdf

 

[DCLane]

@tom73 - mine's doing very little face-to-face teaching / contact although there's nothing stopping students being in groups.

It'll mean a significant increase in cases but, as they're in their own groups, possibly little transfer outside these.

 

[fossyant]

SAGE aren't holding out much hope for universities staying open much past November and not without large outbreaks around Christmas and then in the New Year. They don't sound sold on Test and Trace being up to the job to control any university outbreaks
https://assets.publishing.service.g...mission_Associated_with_Higher_Education_.pdf

Yup. That's why us back office lot have been told to stay away to keep going.

 

[classic33]

New 6th Form College is set to open next week, with 500 pupils out of an expected 600. Right in the town centre.

 

[fossyant]

We have a massive risk assessment to do if going into work. Too much bother for a day a month at month end (I'm in Finance). My colleague's mum is a worrier, and possibly at risk, so not worth it.

 

[tom73]

@tom73 - mine's doing very little face-to-face teaching / contact although there's nothing stopping students being in groups.

It'll mean a significant increase in cases but, as they're in their own groups, possibly little transfer outside these.

Some though are hell bent on getting them in come what sole focus is the money. If it's not technical, science or health related I see little point in having face to face teaching. You can have all the controls in place on site. But you can't control off site and meeting up in the main time. With test and trace no way near up to the job it's going to hard to control small outbreaks so they don't turn nasty.