Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

France decides to follow UK not Belgium and others by refusing to give all its resident a mask. Bizarrely, it seems they subsidise wasteful and in-demand surgical masks but not cloth coverings. Report in French at https://www.france24.com/fr/2020072...s-pour-tous-une-option-rejetée-par-l-exécutif

 

[Levo-Lon]

It was so nice to see thousands lining the streets mask free shoulder to shoulder for Jack Charltons funeral..fookwits

Liverpool again , don't come to the ground.. Ffs sake CANCEL the celebration..your expecting football fans to be rational and obey instruction

 

[johnblack]

It's not accurate.

In the UK and other countries estimates have been for every test confirmed case there are 7-27 other cases. ONS and other work for the UK suggests it's somewhere around 15.

As PK99 suggests some countries and even cities have very young populations. In terms of deaths, excess deaths in many countries and how it's recorded vary.

Which part isn't accurate, the recorded deaths or the amount of cases that's been suggested in the study?

 

[tom73]

Still looking for face coverings or fancy making one plenty of help on this site. Plus a list of groups making them for the community.
https://www.bigcommunitysew.co.uk

 

[MntnMan62]

It was so nice to see thousands lining the streets mask free shoulder to shoulder for Jack Charltons funeral..fookwits

Liverpool again , don't come to the ground.. Ffs sake CANCEL the celebration..your expecting football fans to be rational and obey instruction

Wow. Just look at what is happening in the US. It's because of this exact same kind of behavior. We are the example NOT to follow. I'd say people are really doing their best to exceed the 1 million mark for deaths on the planet. Humans. Their own worst enemy.

 

[bitsandbobs]

France decides to follow UK not Belgium and others by refusing to give all its resident a mask. Bizarrely, it seems they subsidise wasteful and in-demand surgical masks but not cloth coverings. Report in French at https://www.france24.com/fr/20200722-covid-19-en-france-les-masques-gratuits-pour-tous-une-option-rejetée-par-l-exécutif

By the time the Belgian authorities had actually managed to get supplies of masks, they'd been widely available in supermarkets for a while. The ones I've had and have are a mix of supermarket purchase and ones I received from my employer. I wonder how many people actually went to the effort of getting an "official" one.

 

[marinyork]

Which part isn't accurate, the recorded deaths or the amount of cases that's been suggested in the study?

The number of people who have tested positive for the virus. Many more have had it.

The antibody testing will be.

 

[johnblack]

The number of people who have tested positive for the virus. Many more have had it.

The antibody testing will be.

So the virus is probably more infectious but mainly asymptomatic and so has a far far lower mortality rate?

 

[marinyork]

So the virus is probably more infectious but mainly asymptomatic and so has a far far lower mortality rate?

The virus is very infectious, natural R is now believed to be 4.0. At the start of the virus in the UK we were debating whether it was 2.5 and Italy was jumping up and down saying it was 3, this is terrible. It's 4.0

Similarly at the start of the pandemic asymptomatic cases were quoted as 20%, then 20 to 80% with experts saying the upper bound was very unlikely to be that high. It was revised upwards to 40 to 50%. Then it was proved it was 70%.

Mortality rate in the developed world, I haven't seen research recently but reckoned to be 1%. Far lower than the 'headline' numbees for the UK.

45,000 deaths in the UK and 7% of antibody positive comes out at 1% as it happens.

The cost for survivors of ICU and even a minority will be large. Potentially hundreds of thousands requiring treatments and change in quality of life for months/years/permanently.

 

[mjr]

By the time the Belgian authorities had actually managed to get supplies of masks, they'd been widely available in supermarkets for a while. The ones I've had and have are a mix of supermarket purchase and ones I received from my employer. I wonder how many people actually went to the effort of getting an "official" one.

I think some communes were going door-to-door distributing them, daytimes and evenings. It seems a bit odd that distribution fell to the lowest level of government - with all the variation and postcode lottery that results - but I guess they had the most people on the streets already.

 

[mjr]

gov.uk estimate R possibly above 1 in London and SW England. Only NE & Yorkshire are estimated as likely clearly below 1.0 and the ZOE/KCL tracker estimates they've got the most current cases.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-number-and-growth-rate

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

 

[srw]

gov.uk estimate R possibly above 1 in London and SW England.

But given very small numbers, the estimate is unreliable - and R ceases to be a particularly useful stat.

 

[a.twiddler]

But given very small numbers, the estimate is unreliable - and R ceases to be a particularly useful stat.

Well, just give it a little time. If it is over 1, the numbers will increase. We can't afford to be complacent.

 

[srw]

Well, just give it a little time. If it is over 1, the numbers will increase. We can't afford to be complacent.

If the number of infections is very small (and it is), and R is very slightly over 1 (which is the top end of estimate - the central estimate is still clearly below 1) then we can't be complacent but we can know that the risk is small and will remain small for some time - as long as people persist with social distancing and mask wearing to keep the R number within touching distance of 1. The problem we had in March was that the number of infections was much larger than anyone thought, and no-one was social distancing or wearing a mask. And we knew very little about the disease.

 

[raleighnut]

If the number of infections is very small (and it is), and R is very slightly over 1 (which is the top end of estimate - the central estimate is still clearly below 1) then we can't be complacent but we can know that the risk is small and will remain small for some time - as long as people persist with social distancing and mask wearing to keep the R number within touching distance of 1. The problem we had in March was that the number of infections was much larger than anyone thought, and no-one was social distancing or wearing a mask. And we knew very little about the disease.

Don't forget this all probably started with 1 person, the so called 'patient zero'.