Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace

If you are a second node with no symptoms I don't see how that's going to work for 14 days if ^^ is true, especially if you get symptoms later have a test and told to stay inside your residence.

Also of interest:

"Government scientific advisers expressed caution about the efficacy of the planned track-and-trace system, which was rolled out across England on Thursday, saying that for it to work, around 80% of non-household contacts would have to be traced and isolated within 48 hours of the first person experiencing symptoms.

This would need about 30 contacts to be tested per case, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which reports to the health department, said in meetings in April, adding: “Beyond that, benefits would be marginal.”

 

[steve292]

The view from my window on the A10 makes me think most people are now pretty much ignoring even the law, let alone the guidelines, and doing what they think best.

The sensible ones doing stuff like meeting up in groups outside and keeping their distance (which Boris has now belatedly legalised) and basically following WHO advice rather than gov.uk/mixed-messages will probably be OK, while the mistaken fools doing stuff like having lockdown parties indoors and BBQs are going to be the bulk of kickstarting a second wave, putting my relatives and friends in harm's way again.

Also, I had hoped to go to the coast and see the sea for the first time this year, before the madness of the next unlocking phase hit next week, but that now seems like a very bad idea so I'll be riding out across the empty fens again this weekend.

Better government would have saved more of the fools from themselves. Yes, @tom73, I'm a very unhappy bunny too!

I would stay away from WSM for a while @mjr Its going up here much faster than the rest of the sw of england and patients are now being taken to the BRI (SIL is a ward sister in charge of 2 covid wards) People are behaving as if it has never happened. I have never seen so many idiots in one place.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace

and some drive 260 miles with symptoms and head out on sight seeing trips. Boris Johnson calls this responsible behaviour.

 

[Rocky]

Documents released today say that only 50% of people self isolate when they have symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace

If you are a second node with no symptoms I don't see how that's going to work for 14 days if ^^ is true, especially if you get symptoms later have a test and told to stay inside your residence.

Also of interest:

"Government scientific advisers expressed caution about the efficacy of the planned track-and-trace system, which was rolled out across England on Thursday, saying that for it to work, around 80% of non-household contacts would have to be traced and isolated within 48 hours of the first person experiencing symptoms.

This would need about 30 contacts to be tested per case, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which reports to the health department, said in meetings in April, adding: “Beyond that, benefits would be marginal.”

We've missed the boat for track and trace by two months. The numbers of infections are too big. The government has destroyed the public health message. If only tracing had been done early on, it would have worked. Why develop an UK specific app, which still doesn't and won't work? We'll muddle through this with more deaths, more damage to the economy and we'll find our citizens excluded from other countries without 14 day quarantine period (I think Greece is opening its borders to EU citizens but not UK).

We seem to have become the sick man of Europe again..........

 

[marinyork]

We've missed the boat for track and trace by two months. The numbers of infections are too big. The government has destroyed the public health message. If only tracing had been done early on, it would have worked. Why develop an UK specific app, which still doesn't and won't work? We'll muddle through this with more deaths, more damage to the economy and we'll find our citizens excluded from other countries without 14 day quarantine period (I think Greece is opening its borders to EU citizens but not UK).

We seem to have become the sick man of Europe again..........

A track and trace system should have been worked on far sooner.

Others expressed surprise at the local trial down the hill. I wasn't. Without starting off WW3 I'm not particularly surprised that care workers would be quite hard to guide behaviours in the right direction as it interacts with managers, their livelyhood and the nature of the sector. It's something I've seen first hand where outsiders interact with these things. Similarly I was sceptical contact tracers would get their hands dirty and delve into any more complex multi-generational dwellings with a lot of interaction between households and workplaces. This wasn't part of the trial. This is something Singapore in hindsight has found difficult.

In general I'm more optimistic about the tech solutions. I think the app has it's merits especially in the sort of workplace that I erm won't be working in any time soon, but it's been screwed up. With the level, length of data retained for the contact tracing stuff I think the contact tracing has major data protection issues around it and as the government said one goes with the other - that statement is correct as they both collect a lot of data, the app is more invasive, but compared I think there may be less difference than made out. Similarly I'm more in favour of tech solutions helping like antibody tests (which have been approved), passports and so on, not because they will magically sort anything out, but because the problems to be overcome are so immense that a few extra things used here and there done right can help.

John Edmunds from SAGE was on BBC news earlier and should be on more often. He sounded quite sceptical about the aspects of track and trace I am. From a behaviour point of view which is something neither of us know a lot about, track and trace and multiple 14 day quarantines over the summer when the perception of the virus is now it's going away is hard to see working. Then when the winter comes as he seemed to be hinting, people have got tired of being quarantined a 2nd or 3rd time when it matters and things get very bad.

 

[tom73]

Being told to isolate is once things open up and FB once again gets going seeing your friends enjoying stuff and your at home not feeling ill. Your going to to be heading to the pub as quick as you can.
None compliance is going to be a real issue Post lockdown.
Borris and co talk about locking stuff down again if things go wrong. Well it’s going to take some strong leadership to bring it back. The press will be all over it going the blame game act. The public will not take having the toys taken away again. Given the lack to date it’s all sadly cry wolf the human cost of all this will sadly be massive.

 

[midlife]

Most people in my profession have been mulling over the Chief Dental Officer request to open up Dentistry again.

As most people I know I'm a hospital consultant dentist so a bit different from the high Street but banned all the same as it was a total blanket lockdown. Like all hospital services that were stopped to allow the expansion of COVID treatment its awkward to start again keeping everything safe with an R value hovering around 1 and 8000 infections a day plus lock down lifted and back to school.

Making the wider NHS covid secure is not going to be easy or cheap as it's likely not going away anytime soon so changes to estate (reposing whole buildings etc) will have to be permanent.

Should have taken retirement at 60 lol

 

[Unkraut]

For the second wave of this a new public information message will be needed.

I've just caught up with a program I missed yesterday and Prof Streeck, who is doing the study on the worst hit town here, reckons there will not be a second wave. No claim to certainty was made, but it was nice to hear somewhat more optimistic news for a change.

Personally I suspect the chances of avoiding a new outbreak rely on the public not starting to think it's all over and returning to normal behaviour as existed before the outbreak. A case of living with the virus a bit longer rather than pretending it has gone away.

 

[tom73]

How can we make the situation even worse ? mmmm oh how about removing 1000's from the shielding list without even notifying GP's.
Just to spice it up a bit at the same time tell some they have to carry on shielding.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52848903

 

[Venod]

This was posted in The Dominic Cummings thread by @mudsticks, some people in this thread may not have seen it.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...sons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown

 

[mudsticks]

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Oh and while you're reading cheery news.

From that lefty bastion of commie news - the Financial Times

 

[tom73]

I don't know how to even start with what this really represents.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...al-emergency-services-memorial-Prince-William
Yes fine remember emergency services with a memorial to mark the ones who die on duty due to acts of violence or one off unavailable situations. But don't re work it to reflect the fact that some have died from a virus which is totally preventable with right PPE. As if it's bound to happen and part of the job. To make it even worse don't have a Dr dressed in the very PPE that many never had.

 

[Slick]

Before all this really kicked off here, I watched in horror as the stories came out of China from the comfort of my hotel in South Africa. Even then, I never thought for a single second we would need to deal with that and worse but I did fear for countries like South Africa just because of how the majority lived in such close contact sharing toilets and water taps and the like. Once again, I can't believe that those fears are pretty much unfounded as they are using existing skills and experience to fight their own fight and now my concern (out with our own border) must be for the USA. I have family over there and speaking with them they seem to have been caught up in the American attitude that the virus isn't the only other thing at play here, although I know they are following the local rules. I switched on CNN this morning to see pictures of lots of young people partying in a huge pool during memorial day celebrations and surprise surprise, somebody who attended has tested positive for covid-19. I know per capita we are up there with the worst performers but at this moment in time I reckon it's not going to end well any time soon over the pond.

I know this should really be in it's own thread but the current riots over there must just be making a bad situation much worse.

 

[midlife]

The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?

 

[marinyork]

The experience of COVID in Africa seems to be completely different to the west, lots of young people on that continent?

If you look elsewhere in the world like Iran, that has a very young population and yet got affected badly by covid-19.

It does seem to take 1-2 months in very loose terms for the virus to circulate to get really bad (started Nov in China and bad in January, January/feb in many western countries and very bad in march/april and sadly to the present). There isn't much testing in Africa (hey a few western countries know a thing or two about that). It may be ab it early to judge .