Coronavirus outbreak

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Cuchilo

Prize winning member X2
Location
London
I've just heard on the radio that the banks are to extend the mortgage holiday by an extra three months . This makes me think there is something we are not being told .
 

vickster

Legendary Member
I've just heard on the radio that the banks are to extend the mortgage holiday by an extra three months . This makes me think there is something we are not being told .
Will that not just coincide with the end of the current furlough period or thereabouts
 

Cuchilo

Prize winning member X2
Location
London
Will that not just coincide with the end of the current furlough period or thereabouts
Dont know to be honest . I took the holiday so my next payment will be in July . As i only have two years left to go i dont think i could afford to extend the holiday as it would make my payments for the next two years un-affordable .
 

vickster

Legendary Member
Dont know to be honest . I took the holiday so my next payment will be in July . As i only have two years left to go i dont think i could afford to extend the holiday as it would make my payments for the next two years un-affordable .
Yes. I don't have a mortgage now so didn't really pay much attention (and I'm still working anyhow). I don't know if it'll be possible to extend the duration of the mortgage?
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
I was out at the supermarket earlier and probably only about 5% of people were wearing masks/coverings despite it being government advice to do so, it now needs to be made mandatory unfortunately.

Everything's dropped off now. High levels of traffic, larger groups, larger and more common interhousehold groups and as you face hardly any face coverings. Pubs, restaurants and so on not open, nor are schools are universities, but attitudes are near normal minus those things.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
I don't recall seeing this referenced here:
Great counterpoint argument to the Ferguson inspired lockdown.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1800&v=DKh6kJ-RSMI&feature=emb_logo


Interview here

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.

These figures are flat out impossible. The whole of the UK has suffered mortality of ~0.1% already. For her assertion to be correct between 100 and 1000% of us have already been infected. It's nonsense.

Reputable estimates of IFR are typically in the 0.5-1% range. See for example

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2
 

brodiej

Veteran
Location
Waindell,
Interview here

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.

These figures are flat out impossible. The whole of the UK has suffered mortality of ~0.1% already. For her assertion to be correct between 100 and 1000% of us have already been infected. It's nonsense.

Reputable estimates of IFR are typically in the 0.5-1% range. See for example

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2

In March when she published her model she was quoted directly in the FT as follows
"We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now"

2 months later and after multiple serological studies from all over the world have all shown much lower rates than she predicted we suddenly hear
"As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity"
 

Rezillo

TwoSheds
Location
Suffolk
Not an important story or particularly informative, but may be written as indicative of what the health workers population and maybe more general population will start to see in coming weeks/months.

BBC reporter tests antibody positive in shocker to him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939

It's interesting, though, as he is unwilling to believe that his pneumonia in January may have been the cause as it predates the first known UK cases. He may be right but more instances could come to light as this kind of testing kicks off.

France has found a case from December via re-testing hospital specimens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554
 
It wouldn’t surprise me if they discovered we had it in this country since last year.

I was layed up for most of January with a bug that seemed to mirror the Covid-19 symptoms very closely. Persistent dry, hacking cough, high temperature and fluid on/in my lungs. It took me a few weeks to shake it off.

Obviously, I don’t know that it was Covid that I had - but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to discover I have the antibodies. I don’t expect that these more accurate tests will become available to the general public any time soon though.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
It's interesting, though, as he is unwilling to believe that his pneumonia in January may have been the cause as it predates the first known UK cases. He may be right but more instances could come to light as this kind of testing kicks off.

France has found a case from December via re-testing hospital specimens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

Absolutely. We also know that (I think this is correct as of writing) that the first death reported in the UK had 4-5 that preceded it in other geographical areas and settings, with quite a number just after it as well, whereas I think what he's written about the first confirmed case is still true (as there wasn't much testing and other factors). Other studies point to the virus circulating in larger numbers than thought in January in the UK. It wouldn't surprise me if it was discovered that the virus started circulating in the UK at the end of December and certainly earlier in January than was confirmed.

I think some of it's probably journalistic integrity and ethics. If I were writing the article although it's personal, there is a sizeable minority of UK society that think they had the coronavirus in December/January. Some of those people will be correct. Many will be wrong. I would not particularly be wanting to write something, nor would my editor want it played up the yeah I had flu in January and people read that and then it changes behaviour. Some people say yeah I had the coronavirus in January and behaviours change substantially such as seeing neighbours, friends and family in large groups all the time or giving up hand washing and distancing. I've had this with my dad the last few months where he's had a number of infections and been PCR tested 4x and serology tested 2x. Whatever he had as of the time (or shortly before) wasn't the virus. There will be people over the next 2 months (many will be care and home workers) who test antibody positive so I expect the article is written for them.

I have a friend that think he had it in December. I am slightly curious as like the BBC reporter if I've had it then I either had it in February or been asymptomatic. Similarly I know my father hasn't had it (phew).
 
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